We’re only a week out from our last presidential ratings update, but a truly chaotic week in politics has led us to reconsider our ratings even further. As President Joe Biden continues to face scrutiny over his age and debate performance, the polling environment has continued to solidify.
Former President Donald Trump is undoubtably gaining momentum, and he now appears to be the definitive favorite to win the election.
The National Environment Favors Trump
Currently, national polling shows a small lead for Trump. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Trump currently leads Biden by around three percentage points. This would be a substantial shift from 2020, where Biden won the popular vote by five percentage points. State-level polling also backs up a strong shift towards Trump of a similar margin, especially in some of the furthest reaches of the board.
For example, in Virginia – a state Biden won by 10% last time – recent polling shows a race in the low single-digits. Trump generally seems to be overperforming most specifically in the Sun Belt, while the the trio of Rust Belt swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) remain competitive.
Eight States Shift to the Right
- Maine: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
- Minnesota: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
- Nebraska-2: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
- Nevada: Tossup to Leans Republican
- New Hampshire: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
- New Mexico: Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Texas: Leans Republican to Likely Republican
- Virginia: Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
Our biggest ratings change this update comes in Nevada, where we now believe Trump is favored. Since 2008, the Silver State has trended Republican every cycle – but it’s been fools’ gold in each one. However, we think that is set to change; Biden has not led a poll in Nevada since October. Trump currently holds an average lead of around five percentage points according to RealClearPolitics. As of right now, we think it’s clear Trump is ahead; we’re shifting this race to Leans Republican.
We’re also shifting several states into the competitive category. Back in 2020, Biden carried Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire by seven or eight percentage points each. But the popular vote appears set to swing around seven or eight points to the right, and polling in each state shows a competitive race. As a result, we’re shifting all three states into the Leans Democratic column. We’re also shifting Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district into this column as well.
Finally, we have a few moves on the fringes of the map. First, we’re shifting Texas to the Likely Republican column. Trump has been holding consistent leads of nearly double-digits in most polls here, and we don’t think it’s going to be a viable target. Second, we’re shifting two previously safe states onto the board: Virginia and New Mexico. Biden carried both states by around ten percentage points in the 2020 election. On paper, this alone means both could be potentially competitive this cycle. But state polling also shows competitive races; in Virginia especially, the last eight polls have shown a race in the low single-digits range. We’re moving both states into the Likely Democratic column.
State of the Race
As it stands right now, we think Donald Trump is favored to win 268 electoral votes. This leaves the balance of power in three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Carrying even one of these states would be enough to secure Trump an Electoral College victory.
On top of this, there’s one additional path to the presidency: Nebraska’s 2nd district. Even if Biden carries the Rust Belt trio, an upset here would yield an evenly-divided Electoral College. The election would then be thrown to the newly-elected House. We expect Republicans to have a majority of states here, making Trump the favorite to win any contingent House election.
Of course, the election is far from over. But as it stands right now, Donald Trump is closer than ever to winning a belated second term.
2 Comments
Trump has no chance of flipping New Hampshire. Polls are oversampling his support. Virginia and New Mexico aren’t competitive either. Arizona will stay blue at the end also. However, Trump could flip every other swing state.
Great news Trump 2024 for a better America 🇺🇸 👏