The first presidential debate is out of the way, and we’re now only four months away from the 2024 presidential election. Since our last update in January, the national environment has changed dramatically. As a result, we’re shifting several states into the Republican column.
Ratings Update
Our latest ratings update shifts two key swing states into the Republican column – Arizona and Georgia. We’re moving these states due to the preponderance of evidence – Joe Biden has not led a major poll in either state since last year. In Georgia, he hasn’t led a poll – period – since May 2023. The polls are also generally outside the margin of error. At this point, we can’t say either state is a Tossup. We’re shifting them to Leans Republican.
We’re also keeping an eye on several other potential changes. Nevada polling has been almost as bad for Biden as Arizona and Georgia, and we strongly considered moving the state into the Leans Republican column. But we’re not quite confident enough about the polling to move it just yet.
Moreover, under current polling conditions, a generic ballot swing would expect states like New Mexico and Virginia to be on the board, and some state polling in both states suggests this could be the case. However, we want to wait a while longer before making this decision; it’s quite possible the national environment may shift again.
Trump holds a clear advantage
Our update places Donald Trump firmly in the driver’s seat for the November election; Joe Biden would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in order to win the election. A Trump win in any of those three states, or a Trump win in Nevada and an upset in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (which would flip the race to the Republican-controlled House), would secure him the presidency.
There’s reason to believe this is the most likely scenario. Trump has led Biden in the 538 average for the greater part of several months now. And he has clearly started to edge ahead following a disastrous debate performance from Biden. He currently leads by 2.2%; this would represent a shift of seven points to the right from the 2020 election. If Trump is winning the popular vote, it’s nearly impossible to envision a scenario he loses the Electoral College.
Of course, anything can happen in the next few months. But as it stands right now, the path to the presidency is far clearer for Trump than it is for Biden.