The Commonwealth of Virginia has officially certified a winner in the contentious Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th congressional district. While he has pledged to seek a recount, incumbent Republican Bob Good has lost the race to challenger John McGuire, a state senator. The controversial Good becomes just the latest member of Congress to be unseated in this surprisingly volatile district.
A high rate of turnover
Including this one, in the last 10 elections, Virginia’s 5th congressional district has been won by six different people – soon to be seven, with the defeat of Good in the primary.
- 2006-08: Virgil Goode (Republican, defeated in general)
- 2008-10: Tom Perriello (Democrat, defeated in general)
- 2010-16: Robert Hurt (Republican, retired)
- 2016-18: Tom Garrett (Republican, retired)
- 2018-20: Denver Riggleman (Republican, defeated in primary)
- 2020-24: Bob Good (Republican, defeated in primary)
It’s not usual to see high turnover in some districts. However, the frequency of defeats in the 5th district is certainly unusual. On paper, the 5th isn’t even that competitive of a seat. The iteration of the district used in the 2010s had a Republican lean of between three (2008) and 11 (2016) points. In the 2020 presidential election, the current and previous iterations of the seat gave Donald Trump a nearly-identical eight-point victory. However, the presence of the liberal bastion of Charlottesville gives Democrats a relatively high floor to work with.
A decade bookended by competitive races
2008 and 2010 saw two competitive races in Virginia’s 5th congressional district. In 2008, Democrat-turned-Independent-turned-Republican Virgil Goode faced the first competitive race of his career. In an upset, the arch-conservative Goode was defeated by Democrat Tom Perriello by just 727 votes; every major election prognosticator had predicted a win for Goode. Perriello – who adopted a progressive voting record – would go on to be defeated by Republican State Senator Robert Hurt in 2010’s red wave by a margin of just under 9,000 votes. Hurt served three terms before retiring, and was replaced in 2016 by Republican State Senator Tom Garrett.
Garrett would only serve one term before retiring, citing a struggle with alcoholism. The race to replace him proved to be chaotic, with both parties nominating unusual, subpar candidates. Republicans nominated libertarian Denver Riggleman, a distillery owner, while Democrats nominated Leslie Cockburn, a filmmaker and the mother of actress Olivia Wilde. The race was notoriously ugly. Famously, Cockburn highlighted Riggleman’s self-published Bigfoot books, accusing him of authoring “Bigfoot erotica”. This unusual election tactic didn’t appear to work, as Riggleman won by 6.5% despite a national Democratic wave.
Riggleman, however, would be unseated the following election – but not in the general election. After Riggleman officiated a gay wedding, former Liberty University athletics director Bob Good announced he would primary Riggleman. Good would defeat Riggleman with 58% of the vote in a shady drive-in convention held in Campbell County – Good’s home county. Good would then proceed to nearly fumble the general election, only winning by 5.2% against Democratic nominee Cameron Webb. He would win re-election by a far wider margin in 2022.
Good’s contentious time in Congress comes to an end
Almost immediately, Good established himself as a thorn in the side of party leadership. A hardline member of the Freedom Caucus, Good would go on to support a staunchly conservative agenda. Most contentiously, he supported the removal of Kevin McCarthy – something many Republicans see, in hindsight, as a mistake – and supported primary challenges to multiple Republican colleagues.
The walls appeared to close in entirely on Good following his endorsement of Ron DeSantis’s failed presidential campaign. This infuriated Trump, leading him to support his primary challenger – John McGuire, a state senator and favorite of establishment Republicans. Despite this mostly-united front, Good actually held up far better than expected, losing by just under 400 votes votes. Predictably, Good has begun blaming his loss on voter fraud, making baseless and inaccurate claims to delegitimize the result.
For now, Good’s defeat might mark a close on the “Bloody 5th” , at least for the next few cycles. We have the seat at Safe Republican, and don’t expect McGuire to face a substantial primary challenge anytime soon.