Florida, the Sunshine State, is perhaps the most frustrating state from the view of the Democratic Party. What was once the battleground to die for has rather suddenly transformed into not only a firmly red state, but perhaps the Republican Party’s de facto capital. Former President Donald Trump changed his residency from New York to Florida in 2019. The state’s governor, Ron DeSantis, has become a superstar in the GOP, with other governors following his playbook. Right-wing influencers and donors are flocking to beach resorts, even in blue counties. Many of the Republican Party’s up-and-coming leaders hail from Florida. Conservatives from blue states are rushing to DeSantis’ turf to escape cultural liberalism and high taxes.
Florida, it could be said, is the Republican Party’s answer to California. Given this, despite the state being considered a tossup in 2020 (when I admittedly predicted a Florida victory for President Biden), hardly anyone is seriously looking at Florida as a true swing state this year. Almost all projections categorize it as likely Republican (indicating a virtually guaranteed victory for Trump, and anywhere from 5-15 points).
However, given the sudden introduction of a ballot referendum concerning abortion rights, the state of county-level battlegrounds, the presence of unique demographic dynamics, and some notable candidates, Florida is still worth analyzing, as these factors could yield surprising, if not seemingly contradictory, results come November. This applies to the Presidential, Senate, and Congressional races.
Abortion on the ballot
In 2023, DeSantis signed into law a six-week abortion ban, which activists have said amounts to a total ban, given that most women are not aware of a pregnancy at that point. The ban went into effect on May 1st, 2024.
The issue of access to abortion care has galvanized Americans coast to coast, including infrequent voters. Whatever advantage pro-life Republicans may have once had on the issue has all but evaporated, with Democrats winning elections on a message of protecting abortion rights, and referendums to protect the procedure passing in even the reddest of states, including Kansas and Kentucky.
The amount of crossover votes for abortion rights is encouraging for its supporters in Florida, but there is a major caveat: ballot initiatives in the state require 60% approval to pass, and this threshold failed in Ohio. Florida, a bluer state than Ohio, might register higher support for abortion rights, but this is no guarantee. Recent surveys show greater than 60% support for some legality of abortion in Florida, but polling in the state is notoriously shaky, and historically overestimates Democrats.
To illustrate the challenge, consider this: in a study measuring the presence of Christian nationalism in the 50 states, Florida and Ohio both have just over 30% of their population expressing support for the ideology. These voters almost exclusively oppose abortion access. Florida is also home to many pro-life Catholic Latinos, especially in its south.
Florida voters, unlike those in many red states, are socially liberal. The state voted twice for Barack Obama when gay marriage was a major national debate, voted in favor of granting voting rights to felons who served their sentences, and approved a gradually-instituted $15 minimum wage. A majority of Floridians support legalizing recreational marijuana.
This is somewhat expected, given that Florida is very diverse, not particularly rural or evangelical Christian, and the most densely-populated red state.
But could a vote to rebuff DeSantis on abortion turn Florida blue, or at least pink, again? As of right now, it doesn’t seem likely.
There are a few reasons for this, the most glaring being the voter registration gap. Republicans have rapidly overtaken Democrats in active voter registration, having over 900,000 more voters and counting. Given the pace of GOP registrations, the number will almost certainly reach one million in 2024.
Additionally, despite its socially liberal tilt, Florida is a very economic-minded state, where preserving the state’s fiscally conservative nature is a top priority in elections. In the current era, a candidate cannot expect to do well statewide in Florida on a fiscally liberal platform.
Surveys show that Floridians overwhelmingly prefer Trump’s record to Biden’s, and approve of how DeSantis has handled the economy. And one of the Florida GOP’s top selling points is the mammoth growth in the state’s economy and population, which many attribute to low taxes and minimal economic intervention from Tallahassee.
Swing Counties
County-by-county, Florida presents an interesting case to watch. It is a state where counties often trend strongly left or right over time, and the swing counties this year were once solid for their respective parties. This year, the ones to watch are Duval, Pinellas, Seminole, and – notably – Miami-Dade.
Duval
Duval County encompasses most of Jacksonville, the state’s largest city. It presents the rare corner of Florida racing to the left, as it was one by Democrats in both 2018 and 2020. Jacksonville elected a Democratic mayor in 2023 for the first time since 2011, Democrats have a small advantage in the county’s active voter registration, and Biden was the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Duval since 1976.
Despite the massive gains for Democrats here, DeSantis returned the county to its historic conservative roots, winning it by a strong 11-point margin in 2022. In order for Trump to keep it, the GOP must focus on turning out its precincts, most of which lie outside of Jacksonville city center, and those where Republicans improved on their 2020 numbers. Democrats, for their part, must prioritize Black turnout and appealing to the city’s young and college-educated White voters. Jacksonville is a magnet for Black people moving to Florida, which is a contributing factor in the city’s liberal shift.
My analysis of randomly-selected Duval precincts showed that, in 2022, voter turnout was much lower than in 2020, but the results tended to vary, especially by racial demographics. For instance, in White-majority precincts 102 and 503, lower turnout favored Republicans, who improved on their 2020 margin. In Black-majority precincts 806 and 1011, Democrats managed to improve on their margin despite lower overall turnout.
Pinellas
Pinellas County, home of St. Petersburg and Clearwater, is the state’s most densely-populated, and has its longest-lasting bellwether streak, voting for the national winner in every Presidential election since 1980, save 2000. The county was firmly blue for Obama, and only barely voted for Trump and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Given this record, and its voter dynamics, the county currently favors Trump. It has moved slightly right since the Obama years, with DeSantis being the first Republican to win it on the gubernatorial level since 2006 (although Charlie Crist’s victory there in 2014 could have been due to hometown advantage). Republicans hold a small voter registration lead in Pinellas. Worth noting is that in the 2020 primaries, even with Trump the guaranteed victor nationwide, he still racked up more votes here than Biden.
Biden’s only hope of winning here is to solidify Democrats’ support among urban white liberals, who keep the densely-populated county competitive, while maintaining his stable fortunes among seniors. Pinellas has one of the highest median ages of any Florida county. In 2020, Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s performance in many of Florida’s ‘oldest’ counties, especially those lining the Gulf coast, showing potential room for growth in Pinellas.
Seminole
Seminole, just north of Orange, is home to liberal Orlando suburbs and voted Democratic in 2020, a first since 1948. DeSantis flipped it in 2022 by 13 points, demonstrating a return to its roots. However, it has a Republican voter registration edge. Biden seems likely to narrow the margins given the particularly close contest in 2020 (2 points) and the overall trend to the left. Trump won more votes here in the 2020 primaries than Biden. Trump will likely flip Seminole, but not by an especially strong margin.
Miami-Dade
However, the real county to watch is Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous. What was once the Democratic Party’s urban stronghold in Florida has become legitimately competitive. Trump improved on his 2016 performance here by a mammoth 22 points, and Republicans across the board, beyond DeSantis, won the county in 2022, a surreal phenomenon. Not only that, but the margins were handy: DeSantis won by 11 points.
The idea of a majority-Latino major city-county like Miami voting Republican may seem insane, but has become quite possible. Miami proper and areas like Miami Gardens are still dark blue, but many of Dade’s other cities and suburbs have trended right, including neighborhoods such as Sweetwater, home of Florida International University, and Hialeah, a working-class Cuban American neighborhood. Miami-Dade’s Cuban Americans have become more strongly conservative. These trends have exacerbated as Miami becomes home to more Venezuelan Americans. The city has built a reputation as a haven for upstarts and entrepreneurism in finance, crypto, and technology, drawing libertarian-minded professionals in contrast to the liberalism of Silicon Valley.
However, it can be argued that Democrats are in a better position here than Republicans might assume. For one, DeSantis’ victory here in 2022 was not the first ever for a gubernatorial candidate in the 21st Century. An overlooked fact is that, despite Trump’s improvement from 2016, Biden ended up outperforming both Al Gore and John Kerry in Miami-Dade. Additionally, Miami-Dade is seeing a growth in its Haitian American community, which votes Democratic, and universities remain a base of Democratic support, albeit a low-turnout one. Biden won significantly more votes here in the 2020 primary than Trump.
Other less competitive counties merit attention, as they could get interesting. In 2022, DeSantis flipped solidly Democratic Hillsborough, Osceola, and Palm Beach counties, in addition to the four swing counties discussed above. Should Trump win the state by a double-digit margin, these three could potentially flip.
However, Republicans should not get their hopes up. Biden won both handily in 2020, and more Democrats are expected to vote in 2024 than in 2022, when the party’s turnout was abysmally low. Democrats maintain a solid voter registration edge in Osceola, and Palm Beach voted for former Congresswoman Val Demings over Senator Marco Rubio in 2022. Hillsborough presents a more realistic opportunity for Republicans, as they had a stronger victory there in the 2022 gubernatorial race, and performed better than in the other two counties in 2020.
Other former swing counties have completed their transition to their respective sides. For example, Saint Lucie, Jefferson, Flagler, Volusia, and Monroe have all become firmly red after voting for Democrats on numerous occasions, while Orange has turned solidly blue after voting for both parties. In 2022, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist only carried five counties: Gadsden (majority-Black), Leon (Tallahassee), Alachua (Gainesville and UF), Orange (Orlando), and Broward (Fort Lauderdale and Miami suburbs).
Demographic Dynamics
As implied above, Florida’s Latino voters are a swing bloc, and demographically split politically, often by their national background. Cuban, Venezuelan, Chilean, and Colombian Americans lean conservative, while Puerto Ricans and Mexican Americans lean liberal. The Republicans have made massive inroads among Latino communities, winning them solidly in 2022 and narrowing Biden’s lead in Miami-Dade to a mere seven points in 2020.
Tellingly, recent surveys show that Latinos in Florida overwhelmingly support Trump’s record and oppose Biden’s. They also back Senator Scott over Mucarsel-Powell by double-digits, a U-turn from 2018, when Latinos mostly supported Nelson.
Florida’s seniors are also an electoral prize, with the state serving as a magnet for retirees from elsewhere. This demographic is firmly Republican, but Biden holds unique appeal among senior voters and could improve on his 2020 margins with enough outreach.
Regarding young voters, Florida’s are among the most liberal in the country. A study found that, had only young people voted in 2020, Florida would have voted for Biden by over thirty points, and to the left of New York and Illinois. Predominant issues concerning young Floridians are climate change, LGBTQ+ rights, and gun violence, given the state’s history of tragedies concerning these matters. In recent years, DeSantis’ seeming war on left-leaning influences in Florida schools has galvanized a subset of activists. These voters are crucial for narrowing Trump’s margin in November.
But Democrats’ main challenge concerns the influx of Republican-leaning voters into the state, including in places where they appeared to be making gains. Although Florida has always drawn new residents, the popular trend now is for conservatives to relocate there, embracing the Republican approach to state governance.
Trump and Biden
Florida stands out as a state uniquely favorable to Trump. Mar-a-Lago aside, Florida represents a cultural transformation into a haven of sorts for right-wing populism, of which Trump is king. It is home to millions of wealthy retirees, and the former President is one of them. Trump vocally condemns socialism, a reassurance for Latinos from socialist dictatorships. The “Obama to Trump” trend is huge in Florida, and I remember talking to Trump voters who followed this path.
Trump’s influence over Florida can be seen in the GOP primaries. In 2018, his endorsement of DeSantis, who was then an obscure Congressman, elevated him to a victory over former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who was favored to win. Trump’s support of then-Governor Rick Scott helped him take down three-term Senate incumbent Bill Nelson. In the 2024 primaries, Trump drew a plethora of endorsements from Florida Republicans, which helped end DeSantis’ initially strong campaign.
One does not have to do much to see this. Go anywhere in Florida and you are almost guaranteed to see some Trump merchandise proudly on display. Biden, by contrast, stands out as the chief opponent of both Trump and DeSantis, and represents the kind of tax-and-spend liberalism reviled by many Floridians. But among Democrats, Biden still has some strong support. Florida’s Democrats have a history of backing establishment candidates, choosing Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008, and overwhelmingly rejecting Bernie Sanders in both 2016 and 2020. This likely led the party to cancel its 2024 primary.
Orange County, home of Orlando, is a hotbed of progressivism in Florida, and has become a strong base of the LGBTQ+ movement following the Pulse nightclub shooting. Alachua, home to UF, can credit the university for its retained Democratic support. Biden can be expected to hold onto both his liberal base in South Florida alongside progressives in Leon, Alachua, and Orange counties. Majority-Black Gadsden will back him, too, given that Black voters are his strongest base of support.
However, Biden is not particularly exciting to Florida’s young voters. In FIU’s precinct, for instance, 70.6% of 2020 primary voters chose Bernie Sanders, to Biden’s 25.9%. Surveys show that many more young voters will back Trump this year. In all likelihood, Alachua and Orange will therefore vote for Biden given their strong 2022 support for Crist, but the chief motivation will be to oppose Republicans rather than support the President.
Senate Race: Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell
This year’s US Senate race pits incumbent Senator Rick Scott against former Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Miami. Mucarsel-Powell served Florida’s southernmost district from 2019 until 2021, facing defeat from now-Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Republican. Scott served as Governor until he defeated Nelson in 2018, an upset decided by roughly 10,000 votes.
Scott is heavily favored to win a second term. Florida’s reddening aside, he has quickly climbed the GOP Senate ladder to strong influence, and has a fortune to spend. He has deployed the same successful attacks on Democrats as other Florida Republicans, focusing on Florida’s good fortunes, in-migration from blue states, low taxes, and the threat of socialism. Mucarsel-Powell is strong on paper, an immigrant and small business owner, but her lack of name recognition and backing from powerful Democrats will not serve her well.
Scott’s 2018 win was powered by Latinos, despite him losing Miami-Dade and Osceola counties to Nelson. Given 2022’s strong Latino support for Sen. Rubio, and Scott’s unique appeal to many Hispanics, it seems likely that he will retain this support. Nonetheless, given that Florida’s White voters are solidly Republican, the race will likely hinge on who can win stronger Latino support: the sitting Senator who backs fiscally conservative policies many Latinos support, or the fellow Latina who supports the party most Latinos back, but holds some riskier views.
House Races: No Swing Districts, But Notable Incumbents
Following the 2022 redistricting session, in which DeSantis’ gerrymandered map was approved and survived court challenges, Florida has a solid majority of Republicans in its House delegation, 20, against 8 Democrats. The gerrymander also solidified almost every Congressional district in the state, removing all but one of the handful of tossup districts in the prior map.
The only competitive district remaining is the 27th, held by Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, which encompasses the southern portion of Miami. However, she is strongly approved of, and won reelection in 2022 with a whopping 14.6 points against a well-known Democrat, putting her seat firmly out of Democrats’ reach.
Worth watching are the races of other well-known figures and unusual districts. Florida is home to an array of notable members of the House, all running in safe districts for their party. Given this, the margins in many safe districts will speak volumes and show who represents their party’s future in the state. Among Republicans, the most notable figure is Byron Donalds, the Representative from the 19th District, who launched a strong bid for the House Speakership amid Kevin McCarthy’s tumultuous confirmation. He recently led a straw poll for the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary, and is mentioned as a possible running mate for Trump. If elected, he would be Florida’s first Black governor.
Other well-known GOP Representatives include Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13), Matt Gaetz (FL-1), and Brian Mast (FL-21). Luna represents a face for young Republicans of color, while Mast drew attention for his criticism of Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal, and Gaetz is – well, Gaetz. Democrats, for their part, have two major newcomers: Jared Moskowitz (FL-23), an outspoken proponent of gun control, and Maxwell Frost (FL-10), the firebrand Orlando progressive who is the first member of Congress from Generation Z. Both are quickly building themselves up as fighters for Democratic causes, with Moskowitz confronting Republicans on gun issues in particular, and Frost serving both as a voice for his generation and as a particularly scathing critic of DeSantis.
Conclusion
The 2024 election in Florida will present an array of interesting points of analysis. Despite the red wave engulfing the state since 2016, Democrats still have work to do there, and analysts must take Florida voters seriously. As has been argued, after all, Florida is America, and November could speak volumes about the future of our two-party system.
