General election results are underway in India, the world’s largest democracy. Hundreds of millions of voters have cast their ballots to determine who will control the Lok Sabha – the lower house of India’s Parliament. And in a surprise result, it appears the balance of power of India may be shifting for the first time in nearly a decade.
How Indian elections work
India’s Parliament is comprised of two houses: the upper Rajya Sabha, elected by state and union territory legislatures, and the lower Lok Sabha, directly elected by the people of India. The Lok Sabha consists of 543 members elected from 543 constituencies. All members are elected to five-year terms through first-past-the-post from single-member constituencies.
The election itself was staggered over seven phases from April 19 to June 1. Due to India’s extremely large population and high rates of voter turnout, staggering elections allows the country to ensure as many people as possible are able to vote.
Before the election
Entering the election, the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held a majority of seats (293 out of 543, or 54%) in the Lok Sabha. An additional 49 seats were held by the rest of the governing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – a right-wing coalition comprised of over a dozen conservative and Hindu nationalist parties – giving the government control of 63% of seats in the chamber. The opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance, led by the Indian National Congress (INC), held only 167 seats (31%).
Owing to India’s newfound status as the world’s largest country, nearly a billion voters were eligible to vote, making the election likely the largest in human history. From the 2019 general election on, opinion polls generally showed a wide lead for the NDA. The I.N.D.I.A. Alliance began to poll almost even with the NDA by August 2023, but the NDA quickly opened a lead after. A recent poll in April – around the time the first round of voting began – suggested the NDA would not meet its target of 400 seats, but would still “crush” the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance, setting Prime Minister Narendra Modi up for a third term.
A surprise on election day
As of today, it appears likely that Modi will indeed retain power. However, the BJP will not have a majority of seats on its own. The BJP will have to rely on its coalition partners in the NDA to retain power for the first time in a decade. Meanwhile, the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance is expected to win at least 230 seats – a gain of over 60 from before the election.
This comes as a major shock to election observers – it was generally expected that the BJP would retain its majority, and that the NDA would receive a supermajority of seats. Prior to the election, Modi had targeted the BJP to win at least 370 seats and the NDA to win over 400. According to Al Jazeera, the NDA is expected to prevail in only 290 seats – enough for a slim majority. But with such a slim majority, true coalition politics will likely come into play.