Widely seen as a bellwether for the future of the Texas Republican Party, last night’s primaries had mixed results. While pro-voucher Republicans appear to have secured a future legislative majority, far-right insurgents failed to unseat two key moderate Republicans.
Pro-voucher Republicans secure majority
In recent years, Republican Governor Greg Abbott’s top legislative priority has been introducing a school voucher program. However, the House of Representatives has been a stubborn holdover. Last year, a group of 21 mostly rural Republicans voted with Democrats to oppose vouchers. Abbott immediately began a campaign of retribution, endorsing primary challengers to remove the incumbents from office.
Following last night’s election, it appears only seven of those Republicans will return to the legislature after the 2024 elections. Of the 15 Republicans Abbott endorsed, 11 ultimately won. Going into the primary runoff, only two anti-school voucher Republicans needed to lose for a pro-voucher majority to be in place the next session. This appears to have happened, and House Republicans are now likely to have at least the bare minimum of 76 votes needed to pass a voucher program.
In addition, three Republicans who voted to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton lost their primaries. However, impeachment supporter House Speaker Dade Phelan, the top target of anti-establishment conservatives, narrowly won his primary. Abbott did not endorse Phelan in the runoff, while former President Donald Trump had endorsed David Covey, Phelan’s far-right primary challenger.
Gonzalez hangs on by a thread
In the 23rd congressional district, moderate Republican Rep. Tony Gonzalez fended off far-right primary challenger Brandon Herrera by a narrow margin. Gonzalez, a two-term incumbent, faced criticism from conservative Republicans for his more moderate stances on issues like gun control and gay marriage.
Herrera, a native of Fayetteville, North Carolina, is most well known for his YouTube channel “The AK Guy”. He aggressively targeted Gonzalez over his support for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a bipartisan gun reform bill that passed in 2022. However, he faced criticism for his ties to the far-right. The Republican Jewish Coalition ran ads criticizing Herrera for several insensitive and seemingly pro-Nazi jokes and references in his videos. Herrera also had ties to the neo-confederate group Sons of Confederate Veterans.
In the 12th district, state House Majority Leader Craig Goldman easily defeated John O’Shea, a far-right insurgent. Goldman, an establishment conservative that supports Ukraine aid, is Jewish. He is now set to become the third Jewish Republican in the next Congress, alongside Tennessee Rep. David Kustoff and Ohio Rep. Max Miller.
In the 28th district, veteran Jay Furman prevailed in the runoff. This seat – once seen as safely Democratic – has been thrown into turmoil following the indictment of incumbent Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. Cuellar is one of the last remaining conservative Democrats in the House. His culturally conservative south Texas district is heavily Hispanic, and shifted hard to the right in 2020. He is still favored to win this Biden+7 seat, but it’s safe to say it’s no longer a foregone conclusion.