One of the most contentious topics of the 2024 presidential election cycle has been the polling strength of Joe Biden. Biden has been trailing in the polls against Donald Trump for several months. This polling deficit was more pronounced in swing states, with Trump leading Biden by six points in Pennsylvania as recently as February. Issue polling is even more negative for the Biden campaign. Again and again, respondents state that they believe Trump is better on a wide range of issues than Biden, from immigration and crime to the economy and foreign relations.
Democratic skepticism
This information is often marginalized or belittled by the supporters of President Biden and opponents of former president Trump. They are quick to point out methodological flaws with studies or attack the way they phrase certain questions. Pundits hold polls critical of Biden to a monumental standard. If that standard is met, they make sure to diminish the overall importance of the poll, pointing out that polling is far from decisive at this early stage or that polls at this point cannot accurately gauge a potential five-way race. As a Democratic strategist noted to The Hill, “It’s important to not rely on polls but to match it with what people are doing when they actually vote. When people go vote, Trump is underperforming public polling.”
It is understandable why many pundits do not want to acknowledge polling showing that Biden is losing. At the same time, they need to realize that such polls can only help the candidate they support.
There are a multitude of reasons why commentators might believe that they should diminish any poll that shows Joe Biden losing by a substantial margin. Many are frequent Biden critics. But they believe that acknowledging an unfavorable Biden poll means giving Trump a “win” and validating his political project. They want to avoid such a step at all possible costs. This tendency is a major reason why pundits often attack polls without a clear articulation of why they support Biden for president.
Is polling important?
Another reason for attacks on unfavorable Biden polls is a conflation of the importance of polling. Many pundits believe a poll showing their candidate significantly trailing is a “loss” for their side. They think acknowledging that Trump is winning will manifest into a Trump victory in November. They may be worried that voters will be disheartened or that the media will begin painting Trump as the next president, which might further his momentum. No matter the situation, the idea that Trump is currently on a path to become president is anathema and must be avoided at all costs.
These ideas are misguided. Acknowledging that Trump is winning in a poll does not mean he will become president. It does not give him a victory in the news cycle, whatever that would mean. It also does not dishearten Biden supporters. Trump’s opponents would hate him and be motivated to vote against him even if he was ahead by thirty in national polls. The nation’s parties are too polarized for voters to fail to turn out just because of the results of a Siena/NYT poll.
Polling can change campaign behaviors
In fact, polling that shows Trump ahead may be helpful for the Biden campaign. While they would not be dissuaded by negative polling, Democrats have been diminished in the past by favorable polling. In 2016, the Clinton campaign believed that favorable polling would mean that they could have a sizable victory instead of just a narrow one. They ended up putting resources in Arizona and other marginal states instead of the “blue wall” midwestern states they needed to win. Clinton, of course, lost that election and did not come close to winning in Arizona.
Bad polling has the effect of removing any complacency or incentive to run up the score. It can also change the behavior of a campaign. Losing campaigns are often more flexible and amenable to positive change than front-runners. Hillary Clinton had no incentive to change her approach throughout 2016 given that she was in the polling lead all year. As for Biden, he has changed how he has campaigned due to negative polling. He has spoken out more and put a public face on his campaign in order to rebut claims that he is no longer competent for the job. It looks as though this approach may be working on the margins, as Biden’s poll numbers have improved somewhat in the past week.
It is understandable that Democrats do not want to give Trump anything, not even a factual story about his strong poll numbers. But those poll numbers are not made up. They reflect amnesia about the nature of the Trump years and a general frustration with the current political and economic system. The concerns of Biden’s critics should not be ignored. But they also do not mean the country is doomed to a second Trump term.
