To the surprise of many, Maryland has entered the stage in the 2024 Senate elections – or so it would seem. Republican Larry Hogan’s entrance into the race in February was a surprise. A popular ex-Governor, Hogan is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate for state Republicans. His entry led several other election prognosticators – including Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report – to reconsider their ratings.
After taking some time to consider this ourselves, we’ve respectfully reached a different conclusion. For now, we’re leaving Maryland’s Senate race at Safe Democratic – and here’s why.
2006: The last competitive Maryland Senate race
Republicans haven’t seriously contested a Senate race in Maryland since 2006, when Democrat Ben Cardin beat star Republican recruit Michael Steele by a ten-point margin. Steele, a Black Republican, ran one of the best campaigns in the country.
Democrats were accused of racially-tinged campaigning. In majority-Black Prince George’s County, some black Democrats objected to an all-White Democratic ticket and endorsed Steele. Steele ran 14 points ahead of George W. Bush in PG County and Baltimore, but underperformed in majority-White areas. He lost Baltimore County by five points, while incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich carried it by three points.
Since this outlier election, Republicans in Maryland have imploded federally. Republicans haven’t received more than 35% of the vote in a Senate election in Maryland since 2006. At the presidential level, Joe Biden carried it by 33 points – a 20-point improvement from John Kerry’s 13-point margin in 2004. Amidst a decaying suburban presence and brutally gerrymandered legislative and congressional maps, there has been exactly one lone bright spot for Maryland Republicans: Larry Hogan, whose stunning upset in the 2014 gubernatorial race and 12-point re-election in 2018 remain two of only three statewide victories for the party in the 21st century.
Polling isn’t everything
It goes without saying that Larry Hogan is a credible nominee. In fact, he’s probably the best nominee Republicans have found this Senate cycle. Hogan left office with an astronomical approval rating of 77%. Even a few years removed from his time in office, 64% of Maryland voters have a favorable view of him compared to only 23% that have an unfavorable view. Among Democrats, an unfathomable 61% view Hogan favorably.
The problem is that this is Maryland, which has consistently been Democratic-leaning for well over a century and is seemingly getting even bluer each cycle. Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 45% of the population; nearly a third of voters here are black. To win, Hogan would need to reverse decades of rot among White suburban voters. He would also need to make major inroads among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. In states as uncompetitive as Maryland, candidates can and do lose elections despite high personal favorability scores. Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich lost re-election in 2006 despite approvals over 50%.
More recently, in Massachusetts, Republican Senator Scott Brown held a sterling 57% approval rating. He still lost in 2012 by seven points to Elizabeth Warren – a Democrat who has since proven to be somewhat of an underperformer. And in 2018, Indiana Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly lost despite net positive approvals.
In other words: Larry Hogan will likely need to maintain approvals well above 60% for the entire campaign in order to even have a shot at winning. We don’t think this will happen.
Hogan’s campaign isn’t necessarily hopeless
There are a few indications this race could be genuinely competitive. Like I mentioned earlier, Hogan is genuinely popular across party lines in a manner that is almost unheard of in modern politics. Hogan also faces only scattered opposition from no-name candidates in the May Republican primary. This means he won’t have to worry about a rightward primary pivot crippling his odds in the general. We still expect a prolonged federal campaign will drag his approval ratings down to earth as he is tied to unpopular national Republicans, especially with control of the Senate on the line.
The other genuinely strong indicator Hogan has is polling. So far, four credible polls have been conducted for the race. In all four polls, Hogan leads Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, a Black Democrat. Two of those polls show him at or above 50%. Against David Trone – a White, more moderate Democrat who inexplicably upended his campaign by using a racial slur – Hogan leads in two of those polls, both with him at 49%.
This is better than you would expect for a typical “mirage race” – that is, an election initially deemed competitive that later becomes a blowout. In Hawaii’s 2012 Senate race, Republican Linda Lingle trailed in every public poll and never polled higher than 44%. In Kansas’s 2014 Senate race, independent Greg Orman led throughout much of the year, but rarely hit 50%. And in 2020, Democratic candidates in Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina generally polled in the 44% to 47% range. When an underdog candidate routinely starts polling at or around 50%, it’s a sign to start taking them seriously.
There is reason to be skeptical that these strong polling numbers can hold. Both of his prospective opponents suffer from poor name ID statewide. And while Alsobrooks polls poorly against Hogan right now, she would command the support of Maryland’s formidable Black establishment and voting base – a group Hogan would need to make inroads into in order to win. Although Maryland resident Laphonza Butler currently represents California in the Senate, no Black candidate has ever been elected to the Senate from Maryland.
Conclusion
Given his strong approval ratings and favorable polling, we wouldn’t be surprised if Larry Hogan manages to win 40% of the vote, or even 45% of the vote. It’s entirely possible that if the election were held today, he might actually win. However, in order to win Hogan will need to win a majority of the vote in November. Right now, we don’t think this is possible.
In today’s polarized political climate, it’s rare to see a state split their ticket for President and Senate. It’s even rarer to see a state with a double-digit partisan lean do so – let alone the third-most Democratic state in the country.
If Hogan wins, it would be the biggest upset in a federal election in decades. It would require him to thread a needle, with targets of around 30% in Baltimore and PG (Trump received around 10% in both), 40% in Montgomery (Trump won 20%), 55% in Baltimore County (Trump won 36%), and over 60% in Anne Arundel and Frederick (Trump won 42% and 45%, respectively) – all while Donald Trump leads the Republican ticket. We will believe this is possible when we see it.
5 Comments
This whole article is basically just an argument for labelling the contest contest should be considered “Likely Democratic.” If it’s true that “Hogan’s campaign isn’t necessarily hopeless,” and that he could win 45% of the votes, than the election isn’t “Safe Democratic.”
This whole article is basically just an argument for why the contest should be considered “Likely Democratic.” If it’s true that “Hogan’s campaign isn’t necessarily hopeless,” and that he could win 45% of the votes, then the election isn’t “Safe Democratic.”
“If Hogan wins, it would be the biggest upset in a federal election in decades.” That’s obviously an exaggeration. Trump winning in 2016 despite being given a 10 to 20% chance of victory by most polling groups is a far bigger upset than this would be. Dave Brat’s primary victory against Eric Cantor and Scott Brown’s win in 2010 would both arguably be bigger as well.
When someone has to resort to overstatements like this, it suggests that there isn’t really much of an argument.
You made the case for it to be Likely Democratic.
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