In the weeks leading up to the Michigan primaries, many Democrats in Michigan – a must-win state for President Biden in November – made their warnings clear: stop blindly supporting Israel’s operations in Gaza or be met with a protest at the ballot box.
Given that Biden had already wiped out the competition in the first three primary states, and was virtually guaranteed to win the Michigan contest, the administration did not seem to care much.
In the end, the “uncommitted” option on the primary ballot racked up 13.2% of the vote, to the President’s 81.1%. These may not seem like striking numbers, but the protest amounts to 101,436 votes. This exceeded what its organizers were hoping for. “Listen to Michigan”, the campaign behind it, rather strategically aimed for 10,000 votes, as this was roughly what former President Trump won the state by in 2016.
A Democratic member of Congress admitted before the primary that any percentage in the double digits for “uncommitted” would be worth worrying about. This now begs the questions: will the results lead to Biden’s loss in November, and what else might they bring about or signal?
What it means now
The “uncommitted” movement became a national phenomenon, drawing support from pro-Palestinian rights activists, Arab and Muslim Americans, and pro-ceasefire Americans coast to coast.
The results were astonishing, and have forced conversations in the Democratic Party about the necessary next steps in supporting Biden’s bid for a second term. The party immediately lined up behind the President upon his re-election announcement, and the few challengers who have come forward have been bruised in the primaries.
However, Biden appears to be much weaker now than in 2020, despite his incumbency. His approval rating has been stuck in the 30s for months, and he is consistently losing to Trump in polls, of swing states and of the country as a whole.
The challenge for Democrats, then, is to convince enough pro-ceasefire voters to stand by the President when push comes to shove, while utilizing resources to sway other voters.
A few things merit note. Many of the vocally pro-ceasefire voters are relatively young, a demographic that has fueled Democratic victories in races up and down the ballot. Young voters are typically to Biden’s left, dissatisfied with the President’s perceived lack of action on issues like climate change, and mostly supported progressives in the 2020 primaries.
However, these voters are much more difficult to turn out for elections. Only half of voters 18-29 went to the polls in 2020, and 27% did in 2022 – a year when Democrats vastly outperformed expectations. Democrats still have a small window before November to sway them to stick with Biden, but with a strong enough general election message for the general public, young voters will likely not be the deciding factor.
Going further, the successful campaign has led to similar efforts elsewhere, which we saw on Super Tuesday. Take Minnesota, a state home to a large Somali-American community. The uncommitted campaign surpassed the vote share of that in Michigan, at 19% (vs. 13% in Michigan), despite being a relatively small effort with limited resources and minimal national attention. Data indicates that young voters more broadly were instrumental in this effort. Plus, should the election continue to move in Trump’s favor, Minnesota could enter swing state status.
Will It Affect Policy Towards Israel?
The Israeli bombardment of Gaza has sewn divisions in American politics, but on the left in particular. More moderate, institutionalist Democrats have stood with Israel. However, progressives from the left wing of the party have been split, with many advocating for a halt to all US aid to Israel, and others in opposition.
Biden himself is a strong supporter of Israel, to the point of bypassing Congress to send additional military aid to the country. Despite presently working for a ceasefire, he had previously indicated that there is “no possibility” for one. In saying this, he was likely disavowing the idea of a permanent cessation of hostilities and seeing it as a concession to Hamas.
The President has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Israel’s conduct, but keeps stopping short of disavowing the military operation in Gaza. Listen to Michigan implied that its backers will only vote for Biden in November if he changes his policy towards Israel, but the President’s confidence that he will win reelection makes it unlikely that he will cave to this pressure. Therefore, Biden’s decades-long relationship with Israeli leaders makes it virtually guaranteed that he will not cease US support for the country.
In the immediate term, US support will not halt, but in the long term, significant changes may be made. Senator Sanders (VT), despite refusing to call for a ceasefire, has levied strong criticism at Israeli leaders for their killing of Palestinians, and has been a leading voice in the Senate for applying pressure on Netanyahu and delivering aid to Gazans. Given Sanders’ strong support from the fast-growing young, Arab, and Muslim American communities in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries, and young Americans’ sympathy with the Palestinians, it is entirely possible that a future progressive majority in the Democratic leadership will change the country’s posture towards Israel to condition aid on the human rights of Palestinians.
This seems especially likely when considering that Democrats were already applying more pressure on Israel before the current campaign in Gaza.
Most notably, Michigan organizers say that their campaign led Biden to negotiate for a ceasefire. If this is true, it likely signals panic from the White House in recognition of November’s stakes.
What It Means for November
Before the Israel-Hamas War, Michigan was widely expected to stick with Biden for 2024. Democrats have made strong gains there since 2016, winning statewide offices and gaining a trifecta in the state government in 2022, a first in 40 years.
However, it remains close. Biden won by a comfortable, but small, margin of 2.78% in 2020, and Senator Gary Peters, the DSCC chair, very narrowly eked out now-Congressman John James by less than two points that same year. Michigan has only once elected a Republican Senator since 1972, in 1994. Therefore, even if Michigan is a blue state with a rejuvenated progressive movement, Trump’s movement only made the state more competitive.
How much of an effect dissatisfied Michigan voters will have on Biden’s re-election campaign is far from certain, but it is worth looking at some numbers and trends. In 2020, President Biden won Michigan by 154,188 votes, which leaves a 52,752-vote gap between this lead and the uncommitted votes. It is doubtful that many Arab or Muslim American voters who disapprove of Biden’s handling of Gaza would sit out the chance to vote uncommitted, no less 52,000.
However, the impact could still be monumental. Relatively few voters in Michigan are Arab or Muslim, but this, coupled with lagging turnout among young voters, could do Biden in. Michigan is currently his worst-polling of the three Rust Belt battlegrounds (the others are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), which is very telling when factoring in that Michigan was by far Biden’s strongest of the three in 2020. This may point to an outsized impact from Arab and Muslim Americans.
Polling data finds that just 17% of Arab Americans plan to vote for Biden, down from 59% in 2020. In a scenario where turnout among Arab and Muslim Michiganders drops by 50%, Biden receives 50,000 fewer votes. If applied to Arizona and Georgia, Trump wins those states.
Not helping is that young people are leaving Michigan in droves, potentially harming the Democrat-run state economy and thus convincing more voters to go Republican. There were already signs that Arab and Muslim Americans were shifting to the GOP.
Some Arab and Muslim leaders have indicated that their community will not come around in November. However, if youth turnout lags and pushes Michigan down to the wire, it is far from certain that Arab and Muslim Americans would have caused a Biden loss. As argued on ABC News, it could also be any number of demographic shifts leading to this. Trump is performing well nationally among working class voters, including Latinos. Black voters are the lifeline of the Democratic Party in Michigan, and many have indicated that they might not vote for Biden.
Despite the panic sewn from the “Listen to Michigan” campaign, it is unlikely to result in Biden’s outright loss in the state, or anywhere else, come November. But it is absolutely something the White House should be paying attention to.