Tthe United States Supreme Court decided in favor of Donald Trump on a case that could have decided his presidency. They held as unconstitutional a ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court that Trump was ineligible for the presidency under the Fourteenth Amendment because he had led an insurrection. In an unsigned opinion, the Court declared that “states have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency.” The Colorado decision had prompted Maine and Illinois to issue similar rulings and could have potentially kept Trump off the ballot in other states. Now, the power to make a candidate ineligible for office goes to Congress, which will not act on the question anytime soon.
An Expected Result
This case was closely followed by a number of pundits and observers. Many who hated Trump believed that the case was a clear application of the Fourteenth Amendment, designed both to protect former slaves and curb the power of former Confederates. They believed that Trump’s actions were clearly in violation of the amendment. Many lambasted the ruling as an affront to the power of law and an invitation to further insurrectionary behavior. A legal scholar interviewed by Al Jazeera believed that such a ban would be a way to punish Trump for January 6, lamenting that “Trump has faced almost zero consequences. That is a bad sign for the health of the country’s democratic institutions.”
But overall, it was always clear that this case stood little chance of defeating Trump. It was a Hail Mary designed to use the power of courts and sympathetic election officials to end the Trump threat without leaving his fate to the hands of potentially gullible voters. Politicians and pundits mostly believe that the presidential immunity case is the far more important one in front of the Court. Polls consistently show that a substantial percentage of voters intend to abandon Trump if he is found guilty of a serious crime. Ruling on his immunity case quickly will do much more to potentially end the Trump threat than a Colorado Supreme Court decision ever could have.
The Immunity Case
Like the Colorado case, the eventual decision of the Supreme Court on the immunity case is not in doubt. Trump will almost certainly lose. There is no blanket, eternal immunity that a person receives for actions taken while in office. Presidents can face impeachment for the crimes they have committed and can also be investigated by the criminal justice system. The Court has no intention of working themselves into a legal area where Trump could do whatever he wanted without potential review from the justice system.
The more important question is if the Court can rule soon enough to make sure there is a verdict in Trump’s criminal case before November. The question of Trump’s guilt is an overriding one for the legitimacy of that contest. More than half of swing state voters polled last month said they would not vote for the former president if he was convicted of a crime. Even if Trump beats the case or defeats Biden despite a conviction, the justice system has done its part and there should be no question that his election is the true will of the voters in our democratic system. But a Trump victory before a judicial decision would lead to Trump immediately quashing the investigation and sidestepping any sort of accountability. By refusing to act, the judicial system would be ignoring one of its key tenets of equality before the law.
Liberals may be disappointed that the Supreme Court did not rule on their behalf in the Colorado decision. But they should instead focus on the more important ruling that is fast approaching. A loud, boisterous campaign would not change the Court’s opinion, but it may push the Court to protect its legitimacy by issuing its ruling faster than it otherwise planned to. Having the Court decide on immunity to allow for an election this year may be essential to protecting the rule of law and determining the 2024 election. Liberals need to plan their pressure campaigns accordingly.