In a surprise decision, the Supreme Court struck down the Alabama congressional map in a 5-4 ruling. Conservatives John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh joined all three liberals in the majority, which held that Alabama must draw a second majority-black district.
Because of this decision, we’re adjusting our House ratings – and we anticipate that more congressional maps may be struck down before the 2024 elections.
Alabama’s map shifts off the board
Because Alabama will be using a new congressional map for 2024, we’re shifting all seven of Alabama’s congressional districts to Pending Redraw. We use this rating for states that don’t currently have a congressional map; because of this, we don’t feel confident rating districts, as we don’t know what they will look like. It joins North Carolina and Ohio in this category.
However, we do know exactly what to expect from this map. The Supreme Court is requiring Alabama to draw an additional majority-black district. Because of this, we expect that the Alabama delegation will shift from a 6-1 Republican advantage to a 5-2 Republican advantage, a Democratic net of +1. It’s unclear where this new district will fall; Republicans could simply draw two Democratic vote sinks, but we suspect they will attempt to make this new district at least somewhat competitive. This new district, then, could fall anywhere from Leans Democratic to Safe Democratic in our initial ratings once the map is unveiled.
Additional states on redistricting notice
This ruling places the possibility of additional mid-decade redistricting on notice in a number of states. The most likely states to face redraws are Louisiana and South Carolina; both states feature a single Democratic, majority-black district, and both have pending litigation. However, neither case is as clear-cut as Alabama, and South Carolina’s claim focuses on the 14th Amendment, not the VRA. We’re not confident predicting either map will be struck down.
A few other states are also on the radar for a potential redraw. Georgia has a proportional number of black representatives, but it could see a lawsuit aiming for a slight redraw to strengthen the black share in the minority-coalition 7th district. Additionally, Michigan lawsuits aiming to redraw state legislative lines – which went out of their way to avoid majority-black districts – might have a better chance at success new.
Finally, litigation might reach a few other states, although none of these are likely to see redraws. Democratic gerrymanders in Nevada and New Mexico could be at risk as well; Nevada lacks a majority or plurality-Hispanic seat, while New Mexico’s reduced the Hispanic voting share in the Albuquerque-based 2nd district.
Finally, Democrats have occasionally eyed a second majority-black seat in Mississippi; we expect this will remain a pipe dream. With only four districts and an R+16 lean, it’s hard to imagine a lawsuit succeeding here – especially when it could open up the possibility of a 4-0 Republican map.
North Carolina is not expected to be impacted
We don’t anticipate this ruling will impact our projection for North Carolina. In our initial ratings, we anticipated Republicans would shift the state’s congressional delegation from 7-7 to a 10-4 or 11-3 Republican advantage. We continue to anticipate Republicans will net +3 or +4 from North Carolina.
While this Supreme Court ruling might lead some to assume that the present NC-01 – a majority-white, but minority-heavy district that has a slight Democratic lean – might be protected, we don’t believe this is the case. A previous iteration of the district that connected Durham with majority-black rural counties was struck down. We suspect this ruling precludes the alternative of connecting parts of Raleigh with the seat; the inability to do either effectively dooms Democratic odds here long-term.
Because of this precent, there are few, if any, options to strengthen the Democratic lean in the district. The current seat, which Joe Biden won by 7 points, was only 0.5% away from backing Republican Ted Budd for Senate in 2022. The seat could theoretically be drawn to be slightly more Democratic by including portions of Goldsboro or Kinston, but even this would only delay the inevitable. We suspect that the seat will be redrawn to be competitive, and likely won’t face excessive scrutiny from courts.
Impact on our ratings
This change has an impact on our predictions from overall House control. Of the districts that are set, Democrats have the edge in 196, Republicans have the advantage in 185, and 18 are rated as a Tossup. We have 36 districts rated as Pending Redraw; Republicans control the redistricting process in all of these states, however, and are expected to gain districts in all but Alabama.
Because of this, we do still think Republicans have an overall advantage, and would only need to win as little as a third of the 18 Tossup seats in order to hold their majority. However, further lawsuits in other southern states – along with New York – could substantially alter this projection.