The Pennsylvania Supreme Court officially picked the Carter plan earlier this morning. The map is considered a 6-6-5 map by analysts and ourselves. That means there are six solid GOP seats, six solid Democratic seats, and five competitive seats.
Of the competitive seats, here are our preliminary ratings:
- PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick, R): Safe Republican
- PA-02 (Brendan Boyle, D): Safe Democratic
- PA-03 (Dwight Evans, D): Safe Democratic
- PA-04 (Madeline Dean, D): Safe Democratic
- PA-05 (May Gay Scanlon, D): Safe Democratic
- PA-06 (Chrissy Houlahan, D): Safe Democratic
- PA-07 (Susan Wild, D): Leans Republican
- PA-08 (Matt Cartwright, D/Dan Meuser, R): Leans Republican
- PA-09 (Fred Keller, R): Safe Republican
- PA-10 (Scott Perry, R): Likely Republican
- PA-11 (Lloyd Smucker, R): Safe Republican
- PA-12 (Mike Doyle, D, Retiring): Safe Democratic
- PA-13 (John Joyce, R): Safe Republican
- PA-14 (Guy Reschenthaler, R): Safe Republican
- PA-15 (GT Thompson, R): Safe Republican
- PA-16 (Mike Kelly, R): Safe Republican
- PA-17 (Conor Lamb, D, Retiring): Toss-up
Some Explanation
These ratings are aggressive for Republicans, but in this case they make sense. Wild goes from a Congressional District that was won by Joe Biden by nearly five in 2020, and Wild won by four Now the 7th adds the deep red county of Carbon, and adds in more red parts of Monroe and loses East Stroudsburg, a blue part of Monroe. The district is now only a Biden+0.5 district, and if this district had been around in 2020, Wild probably wouldn’t be in Congress right now. Under this environment, we think it is fair to say Republicans are favored here.
With the 8th, while Matt Cartwright’s district does get bluer, its still a Trump+3 seat. There’s always a couple congressmen in tight seats whose crossover support eventually collapses. We think Cartwright will be one of those in 2022. If Dan Meuser officially runs here too, he will likely be Cartwright’s toughest opponent in terms that he is a current Congressman and his not small war chest. We feel as though Leans Republican is a fine place to start here.
The 17th is the Tossup in our ratings here. The seat currently held by Conor Lamb went from a Biden +3 to a near Biden+6 seat. The seat doesn’t split Pittsburgh, but it does bring in many deep blue towns. Republicans need to have a stronger candidate here, and someone who can get strong results in the North Allegheny suburbs. This seat starts as a Tossup.
The two competitive PA seats then are GOP favored seats. Scott Perry goes from a Trump+3 to a Trump+4 seat. Perry is unquestionably favored, but is also still not a fantastic fit for this seat. We’ll start PA-10 at Likely Republican.
Pennsylvania’s first district remains a Biden-won seat, but it did go from Biden+6 to Biden+5. Brian Fitzpatrick is still the incumbent here and as long as he is here, he isn’t losing – especially in a good Republican year. PA-01 starts off as Safe Republican.
2 Comments
Are you sure about PA-01? Both FiveThirtyEight and DavesRedistricting call it a tossup.
The Fitzpatrick family is an electoral juggernaut. Brian won his district by 13 points while Biden won it by 6. Brian and his brother Mike have held the seat since 2010.