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2021 House Special Elections: A First Look

  • Harrison Lavelle

    • Introduction

    A new year brings five new Congressional special elections. At Elections Daily we will be going through each race as it currently stands and assigning race ratings to keep you informed. As the head of our House coverage, I will be providing monthly updates on each of these races.

    Lousiana’s 2nd district – March 20th Election – April 24th Runoff

    Background Information

    For the last ten years, the 2nd district was represented by Cedric Richmond. Richmond resigned earlier this year to become a Senior Advisor to President Biden and the Director of the Office of Public Engagement. He was first elected to Congress in 2010, defeating Republican Joseph Cao, a fluke winner in 2008.

    The old 2nd only included New Orleans, but the current seat now stretches to Baton Rogue. As a result of this, the district is 62% African American, making it the most – and only – Democratic seat in the Bayou State. If that’s not enough evidence for you, Biden carried the 2nd by 42 points last year.

    For these obvious reasons, our rating here is Safe Democratic. There is simply no reason to expect a new Joseph Cao in a seat handcrafted to elect a black Democrat.

    Election Dates and Information

    When will the election(s) be conducted?

    One of two special elections in Louisiana, the first round of voting will happen on March 20th. Since the fifteen candidates will compete under a jungle-primary system, it is near-certain that there will be a runoff. That optional second round of voting will occur on April 24th.

    How will the elections be conducted?

    Like all special elections in Louisiana, the race will be conducted under a jungle primary system. Simply put, this means that all the candidates compete in the first round of voting. If no single candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates in the first round advance to the second. The second round winner is then elected the Representative.

    Candidates

    There are fifteen candidates of four different affiliations. Since the district is heavily-Democratic, we will be following the Democratic field more clearly.

    Democratic

    Eight Democratic candidates are running for the open seat:

    The two main contenders are both members of the State Senate: Troy Carter and Karen Peterson. Minority Leader Carter is clearly the establishment favorite. He has the support of former Congressman Richmond, along with many other prominent black Congressmen including Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Conference Chair Hakeem Jeffries, and Chairmen David Scott and Sanford Bishop.

    Peterson has the support of prominent Democrats like Stacey Abrams and Howard Dean. As a more progressive challenger, she is also being backed by EMILY’s List and Our Revolution, a organization related to Bernie Sanders’s 2016 Presidential campaign.

    A third contender is Gary Chambers, a progressive activist. Chambers has notable endorsements from figures like Shaun King, Cenk Uygur, and Marianne Williamson.

    The runoff will almost certainly be between two Democrats, and one of the two will likely be Senator Carter.

    Republican

    Four Republicans are running:

    Claston Bernard, a decathlete, is currently the top Republican, having procured the endorsement of the Republican Party of Louisiana. Unfortunately for the state GOP, that doesn’t mean much to the electorate of one of the South’s bluest districts.

    Conclusion (Safe Democratic)

    The race is Safe Democratic and is not currently competitive for the Republicans. If there is a competitive contest, it will likely be a runoff between the top two Democratic candidates. Either way, we expect this seat to remain blue for the foreseeable future.

    Lousiana’s 5th district – March 20th Election – April 24th Runoff

    Background Information

    The 5th district was held by Republican Ralph Abraham until 2021. Abraham retired from the seat in 2020 after an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2019. Republican Luke Letlow was elected to succeed Abraham in a December runoff, but tragically died of COVID-19 before he could be sworn in.

    The current seat is heavily Republican; it is 62% white and went to former President Trump by 31 points last year. A polar opposite of its southern counterpart 2nd, we consider the 5th to be Safe Republican.

    Election Dates and Information

    When will the election(s) be conducted?

    One of two special elections in Louisiana, the first round of voting will happen on March 20th. Since the fifteen candidates will compete under a jungle-primary system, it is near-certain that there will be a runoff. That optional second round of voting will occur on April 24th.

    How will the elections be conducted?

    Like all special elections in Louisiana, the race will be conducted under a jungle primary system. Simply put, this means that all the candidates compete in the first round of voting. If no single candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates in the first round advance to the second. The second round winner is then elected the Representative.

    Candidates

    Republican

    Nine Republicans are running in the 5th district:

    The Republican frontrunner is Julia Letlow, an administrative assistant at the University of Louisiana who is running to fill the seat that her late husband was elected to last December. Letlow has received endorsements from the Louisiana Republican Party, former Congressman Ralph Abraham, and prominent House Republicans Kevin McCarthy and Steve Scalise.

    None of the Republican candidates have ever held elected office, and Letlow is currently the most credible member of her party in the race. The strength of the sympathy vote has allowed Letlow to clear the field of potentially strong challengers like Lance Harris, who lost the runoff last year.

    Letlow could avoid a runoff altogether, if she manages to secure a majority of the vote against her eight Republican opponents and her Democratic and independent challengers. Whether she will be able to garner fifty percent on such a divided ballot remains to be seen, but it is a possibility.

    If Letlow faces a runoff opponent, it would likely be Democrat Sandra Christophe. The district is heavily Republican as a whole, but united Democratic opposition could be enough to get the party to a runoff as a result of a divided GOP electorate.

    Democratic

    Social worker Sandra Christophe was the leading Democratic candidate last cycle, but failed to make it to the runoff because her electoral base was split by a fellow Democrat. If you had combined the totals of both Democratic candidates from November, it would’ve been enough to get Christophe to the runoff.

    While Christophe would certainly like to make the runoff, the district’s partisan lean will prevent her from having any chance at victory against Letlow in the second round.

    Conclusion (Safe Republican)

    Simply put, this contest is Safe Republican. While Christophe’s chances of making the runoff are higher because the Democratic electorate will be unified, there is little path to victory against Letlow, or any Republican, in a second round of voting.

    One thing to look for in the first round: how much of the GOP electorate will unify around Letlow and will it be enough for her to avoid a runoff?

    Texas’s 6th district – May 2021

    Background Information

    The 6th district was unexpectedly vacated by the death of incumbent Republican Ron Wright, who died from COVID-19 and ongoing complications with lung cancer. Wright had first been elected in 2018 and was just days into his second term when he passed away at the age of 67.

    The current district is traditionally conservative and Republican. Democrats have made inroads here at the federal level, particularly in the now-Democratic Tarrant County portion, but Wright managed to maintain his advantage in the seat by outrunning former President Trump in Tarrant while also winning rural Ellis and Navarro counties by large margins.

    Democrats have fared better at the Presidential level, with former President Trump winning the 6th by a close 51-48% margin. Regardless of the statistic you look at, Republicans still have an advantage here; its strength varies based on turnout, candidate quality, enthusiasm, and so on.

    A Republican victory is likely, but a Democratic win is not impossible. For that reason, we have rated this race as Likely Republican.

    Election Dates and Information

    When will the election(s) be conducted?

    The first round of voting has no set date as of this writing, but it must occur on or before May 1st. The potential runoff round also has no defined date, but it cannot occur before May 24th.

    How will the elections be conducted?

    Texas uses a jungle primary system for special elections. Much like Louisiana, all the candidates regardless of party will appear together on the first ballot. If no single candidate wins a majority, the top two will advance to a runoff.

    Candidates

    Republican

    Only three Republicans have declared their campaigns so far, and none are considered major candidates:

    There are, however, quite a few potentially strong candidates who have not announced yet. We will take a look at some of these possible contenders. State Representatives David Cook and Jake Ellzey are two possible challengers from the legislature. We are particularly interested in Jake Ellzey, who was elected to his Ellis County-based seat last year. Ellzey lost a competitive 2018 runoff to Wright, so he could be interested in seeking the seat again.

    Ronny Jackson Part Two? Maybe. Former HHS chief of staff Brian Harrison is considering a run for Congress, which, if successful, would make him the second Trump Administration veteran to win a House seat in the Lone Star State. Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams has also been mentioned as a possible candidate. A strong base in Tarrant County, the most populous in the district, could be a critical asset in the runoff, especially against a strong Democratic opponent. Williams could be a top recruit for the Republicans, despite recent ethics questions about his 2019 mayoral re-election.

    Another possibility is Susan Wright, the widow of former Congressman Wright. While Wright has not confirmed nor denied her intentions with regard to the special election, a bid is possible. If she runs, her campaign would be similar Julia Letlow’s.

    Democratic

    One Democrat has announced their campaign so far: Jana Sanchez. Sanchez is a journalist, commentator, and political activist. She was defeated by Ron Wright in 2018, but put up the best Democratic Congressional performance in the district in the modern era; Wright won his 2020 re-election by a slightly larger margin. If Sanchez gets to the runoff, she would be a capable candidate, but it’s unclear if she would be able to form a winning coalition.

    Other possible candidates include 2020 nominee Stephen Daniel and Texas House Minority Leader Chris Turner. Turner, given his political experience and wide network of connections within the Texas Democratic party, would be one of the strongest potential Democratic recruits.

    Conclusion (Likely Republican)

    The 6th has certainly been trending Democratic over the last few cycles, and an extremely competitive race is not out of the question. After all, Trump won the seat by just three points last year. That said, the district still has its red shade, a disposition well evidenced by Wright’s last two Congressional victories.

    Many factors will determine whether or not the seat is competitive, the most important being candidate quality and turnout. Since we don’t have a picture of turnout or the respective fields for each party, we don’t really have certainty when it comes to how this race will play out. On top of that, we have to remember that this election will be held under a jungle primary system, meaning the size of each party’s field could negatively impact their chances of getting their most credible candidate to the runoff round.

    Should the runoff boil down to a Democratic v Republican fist fight, we believe the GOP would at least start with a decent advantage. A Democratic victory is not impossible, but it is unlikely. For that reason we think Likely Republican is a safe place to start our rating off.

    Ohio’s 11th district – Dates TBD

    Ohio’s 11th district, the heart of the African-American Democratic base in Cleveland, will be the scene of a special election later this year. The vacancy will happen when long-time Congresswoman Marcia Fudge resigns to become President Biden’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). While she waits to be confirmed by the Senate, the election dates and the primary field remain up in the air.

    Regardless of when the dates end up being set, the 11th will remain Safe Democratic. In a seat that President Biden won by sixty points last year, the Democratic primary is tantamount to victory against token Republican opposition in a general election.

    Election Dates and Information

    When will the election(s) be conducted?

    The special election 11th will follow the traditional system. Primaries for each party will be held, and a general election matchup between the winners will take place afterwards.

    How will the elections be conducted?

    Because Congresswoman Fudge has not yet resigned, the election dates have not been officially determined by Governor DeWine. The primary will either occur on May 4th or August 3rd. The general election will either occur on August 3rd or November 2nd, depending on the primary date chosen.

    Candidates

    Democratic

    Multiple Democrats have declared their campaigns in what is expected to be a close primary:

    The primary has already garnered attention from the political world as a result of the campaign of Nina Turner, a noted progressive who co-chaired Senator Bernie Sanders’s 2020 Presidential campaign and currently serves as head of the organization Our Revolution. Prior to that, Turner served as a Cleveland City councilor and an Ohio State Senator. She also made a bid to be the Buckeye State’s Secretary of State in 2014, losing to Republican Jon Husted.

    Being one of the more progressive candidates in the primary, Turner has secured notable endorsements from national movement figures like Senator Sanders, and Congresswomen Cori Bush, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib. Whether or not the primary voters decide to stick with her in a primary remains to be seen.

    Another major candidate is Shontel Brown, the Chair of the Cuyahoga County Democrats and a current County councilor, has received one important endorsement from fellow Ohio Democrat Joyce Beatty of Columbus, the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

    No primary polls have been conducted, and Congresswoman Fudge has yet to make an endorsement. Turner and Brown are currently the leading candidates in the primary, and it will be interesting if close competition between them creates a fissure between the establishment and progressive wings of the Democratic Party.

    We will have more comprehensive updates on the other Democratic candidates later on as the race gets into full swing.

    Conclusion (Safe Democratic)

    In heavily-Democratic districts like these, the winner of the primary is typically the de facto winner of the general election. Therefore, we are rating the race in the 11th as Safe Democratic.

    New Mexico’s 1st district – Dates TBD

    Background Information

    New Mexico’s 1st district will become vacant when incumbent Democrat Deb Haaland resigns to become President Biden’s Secretary of the Interior. There is no set date for this special election at the moment, and the fields for both parties remain extremely uncertain given the fact that nominees will be chosen by each party’s central committee rather than through a primary.

    We are publishing a follow up article focusing specifically on this district in the coming weeks. In the meantime, we are not providing a rating here until we have more information.

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