Two weeks ago, Americans cast their ballots in all 435 Congressional districts, yielding some surprising results. As of this article’s publication, 11 incumbent Democrats have lost re-election to Republican challengers. 10 out of the 11 were members of the 2018 class of freshmen Democrats.
- California-39 – Gil Cisnero unseated by Young Ki
- California-48 – Harley Rouda unseated by Michelle Steel
- Florida-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell unseated by Carlos Gimenez
- Florida-27 – Donna Shalala unseated by Maria Elvira Salazar
- Iowa-1 – Abby Finkenauer unseated by Ashley Hinson
- Minnesota-7 – Collin Peterson unseated by Michelle Fischbach
- New Mexico-2 – Xochitl Torres Small unseated by Yvette Herrell
- New York-11 – Max Rose unseated by Nicole Malliotakis
- Oklahoma-5 – Kendra Horn unseated by Stephanie Bice
- South Carolina-1 – Joe Cunningham unseated by Nancy Mace
- Utah-4 – Ben McAdams unseated by Burgess Owens
When it comes to Republican incumbents, none have lost re-election as of this writing. The only uncalled race where an incumbent Republican could still lose is California-25. There, incumbent Mike Garcia holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Christy Smith with many ballots still uncounted.
When it comes to open seats, Democrats have done well, flipping three open seats (Georgia-7 and two redrawn North Carolina seats) compared to one Republican flip (Michigan-3)
What did we get right, what did we get wrong, and why?
What did we get right?
We correctly predicted six flips in the chamber: three for the Republicans, and three for the Democrats.
Republican Flips
- Minnesota-7 – Collin Peterson unseated by Michelle Fischbach
- New York-11 – Max Rose unseated by Nicole Malliotakis
- Oklahoma-5 – Kendra Horn unseated by Stephanie Bice
Democratic Flips
- Georgia-7 – Carolyn Bourdeaux defeats Rich McCormick
- North Carolina-2 – Deborah Ross defeats Alan Swain
- North Carolina-6 – Kathy Manning defeats Lee Haywood
Oklahoma’s 5th district
Oklahoma’s 5th was the second Democratically-held seat that we moved to Leans Republican in our ratings. We were criticized for making the change earlier this year, but our decision turned out to be correct in the end.
Kendra Horn’s 2018 victory over Republican Steve Russell was widely considered the greatest upset of the cycle for the Democrats. After the euphoria of winning the traditionally-Republican Oklahoma City-based seat wore off, though, the party’s attention turned to the question at hand: how to hold the 5th in 2020.
Early on, many observers counted Horn out during a presidential year because her seat had gone to Trump by 13 points in 2016. But as the heat of the 2020 campaign began, many pundits started to change their tunes about Horn’s chances. This was predicated on Joe Biden, who was expected to win or come close to winning Oklahoma County federally.
The general belief was simple: Horn would outrun Biden by enough to narrowly win re-election, even if Trump carried the seat again. Biden did come close to winning Oklahoma County – losing it by around one point. And Horn did outrun Biden, but it was not enough to save her against Bice, who ended up winning the seat by four points.
Why did Bice win? Oklahoma County.
While Horn did carry the Oklahoma County portion of the district by 0.8 points, she significantly underperformed her 2018 margin of 4.6 points. When you take into account that Oklahoma County makes up for 88% of the total votes cast in the district, you begin to understand why Horn was unseated. Adding fuel to the fire, rural Pottawatomie and Seminole counties swung eight and ten points to the right respectively.
Closing the book on Horn, you see a freshman Democrat in a red seat who faced a similar fate to other Democrats around the country, someone who fought a tough race and managed to run ahead of the top of the ticket but ultimately couldn’t overcome the political environment.
Who is Congresswoman-elect Stephanie Bice?
Stephanie Bice has served in the Oklahoma State Senate since 2014, holding office as Assistant Majority Floor Leader. She has formed a record as a mainstream conservative during her tenure. In the contested primary, she narrowly defeated businesswoman Terry Neese. Joe Szymanski had the opportunity to interview her earlier this year.
Bice was one of many new Republican women elected to Congress this year. She is also first person of Iranian-American descent to be elected to Congress.
Minnesota’s 7th district
Out of all the incumbent Democrats who lost their seats this cycle, none was more vulnerable than Collin Peterson. Our Leans Republican rating was correct. Former Lieutenant Governor Michelle Fischbach ousted Peterson, the thirty year incumbent and Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, by double-digits. Over his tenure, Peterson became known as one of the most memorable members of Congress.
A beet farmer by trade, Peterson began his career with three terms in the Minnesota Senate, serving from 1977-1983. In 1984 he ran for the House, losing to incumbent Republican Arlan Stangeland by 14 points. Two years later Peterson lost to Stangeland again, this time by just 121 votes or 0.04%. Peterson made his final losing bid in 1988, losing the Democratic primary to State Senator Marv Hanson.
“Peterson lost a DFL caucus in 1982; he lost Stangeland in 1984 and 1986 (by only 121 votes the second time; he declared victory and went to Washington to se up an office)”
1996 Almanac of American Politics
Peterson didn’t throw in his hat, though. He decided to challenge Stangeland one last time in 1990, and ended up winning by over seven points. He faced two close races in 1992 and 1994, defeating Republican State Representative Bernie Omann by 1.3 and 2.6 points respectively.
For the next two decades Peterson would win reelection easily, defying the Republican lean of his seat and proving himself worthy of the nickname “the king of crossover support”.
In 2014 he faced his first somewhat-contested race since the 90s, defeating State Senator Torrey Westrom by around eight points. His margin shrunk again in 2016 when he bested Dave Hughes by five points even as Donald Trump won his seat by 31 points at the Presidential level. He won by the smallest margin of his recent career in 2018, defeating Hughes in a rematch by just over five points.
With Democrats taking back the House in 2018, Peterson became Chairman of the Agriculture Committee for the second time in his career. But even his coveted chairmanship and a slightly-weaker Trump performance in the 7th compared to 2016, couldn’t save him from ultimate defeat. Polarization had seemingly caught up to Peterson, and while he still outran Joe Biden by a significant margin, it was not enough for him to win what would have likely been his final term in the House.
Who is Congresswoman-elect Michelle Fischbach?
Michelle Fischbach, like Peterson, has been involved in Minnesota politics for decades. She first entered the State Senate in 1996 and served until 2018, a total of 22 years. During that time she served as President of the State Senate twice. Her most recent position was as Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota, in which she served from 2018-2019. Joe Szymanski had the opportunity to interview her earlier this year.
But Fischbach’s future in the House appears uncertain. With Minnesota losing a seat in the upcoming Congressional reapportionment cycle, Fischbach’s 7th is set to be cracked. This would almost certainly draw her into a primary with another Republican incumbent such as 6th district Republican and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer or 1st district Republican Jim Hagedorn.
New York’s 11th district
The final Republican pickup that we correctly predicted came in New York’s 11th district, which is composed of Staten Island and southwestern Brooklyn. Freshman Democrat Max Rose was defeated by State Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis.
Max Rose’s victory over incumbent Republican Dan Donovan was another surprising upset from 2018. Even more fascinating at the time was his margin of victory of 6.4 points, which was quite impressive given the fact that President Trump carried the 11th by nearly 10 points in 2016.
For much of the 2020 cycle, Rose was considered the ideal Democratic candidate for the district. He had received a purple heart for his service in Afghanistan and had remained a moderate during his time in the House, both qualities that many figured would assist him in his reelection bid.
In fact, there was only one pre-election hint that Rose was the underdog: the NBC News/Marist poll. That poll showed Malliotakis up by two points. In the end, Malliotakis won by double-digits – dispelling any pre-election doubt about the poll’s credibility.
Why did Rose lose his seat?
While a Malliotakis win may have surprised some observers on election night, it isn’t surprising in hindsight. There are two main factors that we would say helped lead to a Rose loss.
The first factor deals with the elephant in the room: President Trump. In 2016, President Trump carried Richmond County by 15 points, winning the entire 11th by just under 10 points. This time, however, the President appears to have won Richmond County by 24 points, a significant improvement.
Like many freshman Democrats who lost their reelection bids in Republican seats this cycle, Rose did outrun the top of the ticket. He finished about three points ahead of Biden in the Richmond County portion of the district as of this writing. Ultimately, though, it wasn’t enough to hold on.
Looking at the swing from 2018 to 2020 is quite telling. Rose carried Richmond County by 1.3 points last time, but lost it by 9.8 this time. Even the Kings County (Brooklyn) portion, which broke for Rose by around 20 points in 2018, is currently going to Malliotakis by nearly 7 points with about 2/3rds of the ballots counted.
Why was there such a decline in Democratic support in Richmond County?
This brings us to the second factor. We believe Rose also lost because of a drop off among the large Staten Island NYPD and first responder Community, a possibility that even Rose brought up during his concession speech. Why was Rose seemingly abandoned despite being a moderate? Republican advertising exploited his support for the Black Lives Matter movement to associate him with “defunding the police”.
But Rose, only 33 years old, doesn’t seem to be done with politics. His concession speech seemed more like an attempt to open a door than it was to close one. All of this seems to back up speculation of a possible Rose New York City mayoral bid in 2021. So don’t close the book on Rose just yet, he could very well attempt a comeback.
Who is Congresswoman-elect Nicole Malliotakis
Malliotakis has been involved in New York State politics since the early 2000s. She has worked for former Governor George Pataki and chaired the Marco Rubio Presidential campaign’s New York branch in 2016.
She has also served in the New York State Assembly since 2011, representing Staten Island. Before making her successful Congressional bid, Malliotakis ran for New York Mayor against incumbent Democrat Bill De Blasio.
Georgia’s 7th district
One of the few successes for House Democrats this cycle came in Georgia’s 7th district. The 7th is a diverse Gwinnett County-based seat that has been trending toward the Democrats over the last few cycles.
The seat is represented by Rob Woodall, who has held it since 2011 and decided to retire this year. For most of his career Woodall was a lock for reelection in a seat that was usually very Republican. But in 2018, Woodall had the fight of his life against first-time Democratic candidate Carolyn Bourdeaux. Bourdeaux nearly upset Woodall, losing by just 419 votes out of 280,441 votes cast. It turned out to be the closest House race of the 2018 cycle, decided by a slim 0.15% margin.
Following her close call, Bourdeaux decided to run again this year. She won, defeating her challenger Rich McCormick and proving our prediction right.
Bourdeaux won by uniformly improving off of her 2018 margin in Gwinnett County. She won the Gwinnett portion by 10.9 in 2018 and managed to increase that margin to 13.1 points this time around, a swing of 2.2 points toward the Democrats.
Bourdeaux also improved her performance in Forsyth County, which makes up about a third of the district’s electorate. Though Forsyth is still solidly Republican, it has been recently trending toward the Democrats. Bourdeaux helped pad her 2.3 point district-wide victory margin by reducing the Republican margin in Forsyth by about three points.
This district is an anomaly compared to the three we have discussed thus-far because it was a seat where the Democratic Congressional nominee underperformed Presidential nominee Joe Biden. Bourdeaux won Gwinnett by 13.1 and the district by 2.3, while Biden won Gwinnett by 18.2 and the district by five. These performances that would’ve been unthinkable in a seat that voted firmly for Mitt Romney a mere eight years ago.
Who is Congresswoman-elect Carolyn Bourdeaux?
Carolyn Bourdeaux began her political career as an aide to Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, gaining valuable experience in the field of policy-making. According to her campaign website, Bourdeaux is currently an associate professor at the Andrew Young School of Public Policy and has also served as Director of Georgia’s Senate Budget and Evaluation Office. Bourdeaux has never been elected to public office before.
North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th District
Democrats successfully flipped two open seats in North Carolina following the implementation of a new Congressional map, which redistricted both the 2nd and 6th to be majority-Democratic districts. The new Democrats elected were Deborah Ross (District 2) and Kathy Manning (District 6).
What did we get wrong?
As of this writing we have incorrectly predicted eight Republican pickups in seats that we rated as Leans Democratic the day before the election.
- California-39 – Gil Cisneros unseated by Young Kim
- California-48 – Harley Rouda unseated by Michelle Steel
- Florida-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell unseated by Carlos Gimenez
- Florida-27 – Donna Shalala unseated by Maria Elvira Salazar
- Iowa-1 – Abby Finkenauer unseated by Ashley Hinson
- New Mexico-2 – Xochitl Torres Small unseated by Yvette Herrell
- South Carolina-1 – Joe Cunningham unseated by Nancy Mace
- Utah-4 – Ben McAdams unseated by Burgess Owens
GOP Gains in SoCal (CA-39 and 48)
One of the two Republican pickups in Southern California came in the 39th district. The seat is traditionally Republican, but Democrat Gil Cisneros flipped it in 2018 following the retirement of long-time Republican Congressman Ed Royce. The winner, Republican Young Kim, feels personally vindicated after defeating Cisneros in a rematch of the race she narrowly lost just two years ago.
Along with her newly-elected colleagues Michelle Steel and Marilyn Strickland, Kim is one of the first Korean-American women to be elected to the House of Representatives. Kim ran ahead of President Trump, winning by 1.2 points even as President-elect Biden carried the 39th. Kim also managed to improve off of her 2018 performance in all three sections of the district.
The most important result for Kim was in the 39th’s portion of northern Orange County, which she carried by 4.6 points, up from her 1.3 point win here two years ago. Given the fact that Orange County accounts for more than half of the total votes in the 39th, her near-five point victory there was crucial to winning the seat.
Kim trimmed Cisneros’s margins in the other portions of the district as well. She flipped the San Bernardino County portion, home to the Chino Hills and Los Serranos neighborhoods, and improved her margin in the district’s Los Angeles County portion, which Cisneros won by 8.6 points, down from 16.3 points in the last cycle.
Kim served a term in the California State Assembly prior to her two bids for Congress. Following her 2014 victory over incumbent Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva, she became the first Korean-American Republican Woman ever elected to either house of the California Legislature.
The second Republican pickup in Southern California came in the 48th district, located entirely along the California coastline in Orange County. The seat is currently held by Democrat Harley Rouda, who defeated veteran Republican Dana Rohrabacher two years ago in one of the Democrats’ most high-profile Congressional victories.
This time around, Michelle Steel, another successful Korean-American Republican candidate, managed to unseat Rouda by about two points, bringing another seat back into the fold for a Republican party that had seemingly begun to give up on California after the Democrats picked up seven congressional seats here back in 2018. Like Kim in the 39th, Steel outran President Trump, allowing her to win the 48th even as Joe Biden carried the seat at the Presidential level.
Steel began her electoral career in 2007 by serving on the California State Board of Equalization, which oversees tax collection. In 2014 she was elected to the Orange County Board of Supervisors, a position she holds to this day. When she enters Congress on January 3rd she will be one of the first Korean-American Women elected, sharing the title with fellow Californian Young Kim and Washington Democrat Marilyn Strickland.
Republicans flip two House seats in South Florida: FL-26 & 27
South Florida was a bright spot for Republicans this year thanks to Republican inroads with the Cuban American community in Miami-Dade County that led to pickups in the 26th and 27th Congressional districts.
The first Republican flip came in the 26th district, which takes in all of Monroe County in the west and portions of southern Miami-Dade in the east. Most of the voting population is concentrated in Miami-Dade, though, which ended up giving Republican Congressman-elect Carlos Gimenez an advantage, since he had been Mayor of Miami Dade County since 2011.
The seat narrowly flipped Democratic in 2018, with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell besting Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo following a narrow victory in Miami-Dade County. This time around Gimenez managed to flip the seat back, which surprised us since we had it in the Leans Democratic category. If you look at the results here on the Presidential level, though, it’s not as surprising.
President Trump carried the 26th by six points this cycle, a fascinating result considering its previous status as a Clinton seat. Gimenez only won by 3.2 points, underperforming the President. So quite literally, Trump’s South Florida coattails pulled Gimenez over the line, flipping another Congressional seat back into Republican hands.
Carlos Gimenez began his career on the Miami-Dade County Commission and was later elected Mayor of Miami Dade County, a position he held from 2011-2020.
The 27th district, located entirely in Miami-Dade County, yielded the second pickup for House Republicans in Florida. Freshman Democrat Donna Shalala was defeated by Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, who managed to win the seat in a rematch.
Unlike Gimenez, who underperformed Trump, Salazar ran well ahead of Trump, winning by 2.8 points even as Biden won the district by the same margin. Salazar’s appeal to Hispanic voters was greater than Trump’s and allowed her to secure enough crossover support from Biden supporters to flip another seat that we did not expect to change hands on election night.
Salazar has spent most of her life in the journalistic arena, serving as a television anchor and working with Telemundo, Mega TV, CNN Español, and Univision over the course of her career. She enters Congress in January as an additional member of the class of newly elected female Republicans.
Iowa’s 1st
Iowa’s 1st district gave us another election night surprise, with Republican Ashley Hinson unseating freshman Democrat Abby Finkenauer. This seat is located in an area that election analysts refer to as “the driftless area”, a region composed of “the four corners” of Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Like the four other Congressional seats in the region, the 1st swung toward the right, shedding light on a rough road for Democrats there going forward. But it wasn’t always this way. As you can see from the map below, then-Democratic nominee Barack Obama won every county here in 2008.
Counties colored in purple are “Obama/Trump” counties, meaning they voted for President Obama twice, flipped to Trump in 2016 and proceeded to vote for him again in 2020. And while some were expecting Biden to potentially claw back some Obama/Trump counties in the 1st like Winneshiek and Dubuque, those hopes did not pan out. In fact, as you can see from the map below, the “driftless” counties got more Republican on the Presidential level (keep in mind the Atlas flips the colors around, so blue counties got more Republican from 2016, whereas red counties grew more Democratic).
Looking at the Presidential results in the 1st, the district got more Democratic by 0.1 point between 2016 and 2020, with Trump’s 3.4 point victory margin falling just a hair below his previous performance. Why? Because despite the fact that Trump improved his margins in the more-rural Obama/Trump counties from 2016, he underperformed in Linn (Cedar Rapids) and Black Hawk (Waterloo) counties, which cast nearly a majority of the votes in the district.
Looking back to the Congressional results, we saw Congresswoman Finkenauer outrun Biden. She lost by just 2.6 points districtwide and won Dubuque County even as it voted for Trump at the Presidential level.
Finkenauer’s troubles largely emerged from her uniform underperformance of her 2018 margins. This result is summarized perfectly in the map below by Niles Francis. Finkenauer still carried the main Democratic counties in the district, Linn and Black Hawk, but her margins were down 6.2 and 3.9 points respectively. Adding fuel to the fire was the rest of the district, which swung 10.3 points to the right from two years ago.
The final county of interest when looking at the results in Iowa’s 1st has to be Winneshiek, a county that former President Obama performed very well in that has grown more rosy for Republicans in recent years. (A map showing some recent statewide race results in the county is provided below)
Why is Winneshiek important? Because it’s been a bellwether for the seat in the last few elections.
- 2012 – Then-incumbent Democrat Bruce Braley won district wide 57-42% he won Winneshiek 55-45%
- 2016 – Republican Rod Blum won reelection 54-46% and carried the county 53-47%
- 2018 – Democrat Abby Finkenauer flipped the seat 51-46%, taking Winneshiek 52-44%
And this year the Winneshiek bellwether held up again, with Republican Ashley Hinson flipping the seat back into the GOP column 51-49% while winning the county by the same margin.
Hinson currently serves in the Iowa State House, representing the 67th district. She has held the position since January of 2017. Prior to that she worked as a television news anchor. She joins the expanding class of freshmen Republican women that will be entering the party’s caucus this January.
New Mexico’s 2nd
The Republicans scored another unexpected victory in New Mexico’s 2nd district. There, former New Mexico State Representative Yvette Herrell unseated incumbent Democrat Xochitl Torres Small. This contest was another example of a race in which the 2018 Republican nominee ran for a rematch and successfully won.
Torres Small, like Max Rose in New York’s 11th, is a moderate who seemed well-tailored to holding a Republican seat. And like Rose, most pundits believed Torres Small was a favorite for reelection to a second term. Just before election day, we ignored a warning sign poll that showed Herrell leading Congresswoman Small by two points.
On election day Herrell won by 7.6 points, just slightly less than President Trump, who carried the 2nd by around 9 points. Herrell’s lopsided victory was surprising on election night, but given the fact that Trump’s performance at the top of the ticket was roughly the same as it was in 2016, it’s not that surprising in hindsight.
South Carolina’s 1st
Another election night surprise came in South Carolina’s 1st district, which, like Oklahoma’s 5th, was another upset victory for the Democrats back in 2018. That year, Democrat Joe Cunningham successfully defeated Republican Katie Arrington, who had defeated incumbent Republican Mark Sanford in the primary, by running up the score in Charleston County.
This time around Republican Nancy Mace, a member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, overperformed Katie Arrington’s margins across the district. This allowed her to defeat Joe Cunningham in a race he was narrowly favored to win by most forecasters, including ourselves.
While Mace improved the GOP performance in every county in the district, her 4.6 point improvement in Charleston County, which makes up just shy of half the total electorate, did the most damage to Cunningham. He had carried the county by double digits in the last election.
Nancy Mace currently serves in the South Carolina State House. She was the first woman to graduate from the Citadel, and is the first woman ever to be independently elected to represent the region in Congress in the modern era.
Utah’s 4th
Republicans scored another surprise win out west in Utah’s 4th district, where former Super Bowl champion Burgess Owens narrowly unseated incumbent Democratic Congressman Ben McAdams.
A lot like Cunningham, we expected McAdams to narrowly hold on to his seat thanks in large part to his personal brand, moderate record, and strong fundraising capabilities. McAdams only narrowly beat Republican Mia Love in 2018 though, and it appears we overestimated him while simultaneously counting out Burgess Owens.
Despite our rating for the seat, there were consistent indications over the course of the campaign that the battle for the 4th was very competitive. Multiple RMG Research/Desert Sun News polls showed McAdams leading within the margin of error or Owens narrowly ahead.
McAdams got a lower percentage of the vote in the Salt Lake portion this time but actually ended up winning by a wider margin in the county since Owens underperformed Mia Love’s 2018 numbers there. In the Utah County portion of the district, which is its second most populated section, McAdams actually did marginally better than he did in 2018. But it wasn’t enough to stop Owens from narrowly beating him as the outstanding ballots were tabulated.
Owens will the second African American Republican to represent the 4th district in the last decade. The first was Love, who represented the seat from 2015-2018. Owens is also the first NFL football player to be elected to the House from Utah.
What seats haven’t been called yet?
As of the writing of this article, four Congressional seats have not been called. Republicans lead in all four of them as of noon on November 20th. We will have more updates as these races are called following results certifications.
California-21
Former Rep. David Valadao (R) leads incumbent TJ Cox (D).
California-25
Incumbent Mike Garcia (R) leads former Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).
Iowa-2
State Senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads former State Senator Rita Hart (D).
New York-22
Former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) leads incumbent Anthony Brindisi (D)
Special Thanks to J. Miles Coleman and Niles E. Francis for allowing their wonderful maps. Make sure to follow them on Twitter @JMilesColeman and @NilesGApol. Thank you for reading this article and continuing to support the Elections Daily staff as we fight to get our original Twitter account unsuspended. In the meantime, follow us @electionsdaily2.