As the November election nears, we at Elections Daily are continuing our ratings adjustments. We’re shifting to a weekly update model for most of our ratings in order to ensure they remain up-to-date. Additionally, we’re trimming our Tossup column to give a firmer idea of where many of the races stand.
Stay tuned later today as we unveil major updates to our ratings for the Senate and House races. We’ll be publishing these in separate articles, and this will be our standard format going forward.
Presidential Changes
- Texas – Tossup > Leans Republican
Since July, Elections Daily has listed Texas as a Tossup in our ratings. However, as we begin to trim down our ratings, we feel now is an appropriate time to shift Texas back to Leans Republican. President Trump’s polling has rebounded somewhat, but more important is a trend we’ve been following. While Trump is underperforming in many Rust Belt states, he now seems more positioned in much of the Sun Belt. Polls remain relatively close, but in a state like Texas we’d need to see a decisive advantage to give Biden the edge. Our sources also indicate an advantage for Trump at this point.
We’re seeing a similar trend in Georgia, where Trump now leads in polling after trailing in July. While we still rate Georgia as a Tossup, Texas is still a Republican state in its core and a difficult state for Democrats to win in. We don’t rule out the possibility of a Biden upset here, but we see President Trump as the favorite here.
We’re also keeping an eye on several other states. Biden leads in several recent polls from Ohio, an eye-grabbing number to be sure. In nearby Iowa, Trump has a narrow lead in most polls. Michigan and Pennsylvania both seem to have narrowed in some polls, but not in others, while Wisconsin polls are seemingly brutal for the President. We’re paying close attention to these races as the dynamics of the race begin to crystalize.