It happened!
Perhaps the most watched by-election in recent years, Makerfield finally went to the polls on
Thursday 18th June following six weeks of media excitement. I wrote a primer about it
previously but the short of it is that its previous MP stepped down in order to give Mayor of
Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a seat. Burnham has been widely seen as the only man
viable enough to replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer, but he has to be an MP in order to be
PM. After he was blocked from Gorton and Denton, Burnham finally had a chance to run for a
seat.
Onto the results:
- Andy Burnham, Labour- 24,927 (54.8%)
- Robert Kenyon, Reform- 15,696 (34.5%)
- Rebecca Shepherd, Restore- 3,111 (6.8%)
- Michael Winstanley, Conservatives- 997 (2.2%)
- Sarah Wakefield, Green- 308 (0.7%)
- Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats- 163 (0.4%)
- Count Binface, Count Binface Party- 95 (0.2%)
- Howling Laud Hope, Monster Raving Loony Party- 45 (0.1%)
- John Dyer, Independent- 37 (0.1%)
- Peter Ward, Rejoin EU- 35 (0.1%)
- Dan Clarke, Libertarian- 18 (0.04%)
- Ed Gemmell, Independent- 18 (0.04%)
- Robert Pownall, Independent- 18 (0.04%)
- Paul Gould, Independent- 8 (0.02%)
- Turnout: 45,524 (58.8%)
- Majority: 9,231 (20.3%)
As you can see, Andy Burnham won soundly. Labour won with a decisive 54.8%, over half the
vote and a nearly ten percent increase on the 2024 election. Meanwhile, the Conservatives
went from third to fourth, hitting under 1,000 votes. The Lib Dems and Greens both saw their
numbers collapse to under 500 votes. The latter three parties lost their deposit, though the
Tories won a Scottish parliamentary seat for the first time in fifty years, so they have that to hold
onto.
With Andy Burnham having won more votes than the other parties combined and having
increased the vote share, it’s fair to say that the victory is a decisive one. Polling generally
favoured Labour, even if they said it would be close. Still, this was better than what was
expected. Meanwhile, Reform are probably not too thrilled, especially as polling predicted that
they would do better than this. Winning this seat would have been a massive scalp for them, as
Makerfield has been red since the constituency was founded in 1983.
Restore are also probably quite pleased with themselves. This is the first time they have fielded
a candidate for parliament and they came third with 3,111 votes, keeping their deposit.
In his victory speech, Burnham stated that the people have ‘voted for change.’ Rupert Lowe was
similarly jubilant, tweeting that ‘Restore Britain is officially on the map.’ Nigel Farage admitted
that it had been a ‘dramatic, emphatic win for Andy Burnham’ and that the results were
‘disappointing.’
Various theories as to why Burnham won with such a significant number are as follows:
●Popularity – Burnham is generally seen as one of the most popular members of Labour
and of government in general. Even as Labour becomes increasingly unpopular,
Burnham managed to increase their vote share.
● Labour popularity -The government likes to think that the voters of Makerfield approve of
their rule, hence the vote.
● Wanting to get Starmer out – With Andy Burnham being the likeliest candidate to replace
Starmer, voters perhaps thought that voting him in is the best way to turf the PM. This is
what Farage said was the reason Reform lost.
● Tactical voting – Both the Greens and Lib Dems lost a number of votes, signalling that
there could have been some tactical voting at play to keep Reform out.
●Dislike of Reform – Candidate Rob Kenyon has been attacked for apparently sexist and
misogynistic comments. One of the targets of these comments, broadcaster Carol
Vorderman, sent a letter to the women of Makerfield, reminding them of what he said
and what a vote for him could mean.
● Vote splitting among the right – Some think that Reform, Restore and the Conservatives
split the vote amongst the right, but Burnham won more than their vote share combined,
so that may not have happened.
What Comes Next?
His victory as MP means that Burnham had to resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester. His
deputy Paul Dennett is now the acting Mayor, and an election will occur on the 30th July.
Dennett will not stand as a candidate.
Meanwhile, Burnham needs to decide what he’s doing next. At the time of writing, no moves
have been made regarding the PM. Starmer has stepped down; he could call a snap election if he wanted too, but there is no indication that will happen either.
Reform will also need to decide their next steps, and Restore will likely see this as a jumping-off
point for future elections. The Conservatives may not be thrilled with this result, but they have a new seat thanks to the victory at the Aberdeen South by-election (the SNP held Abroath and
Broughty).
Meanwhile, we might see the Liberal Democrats and Greens decide that tactical voting might be
worth it in future to keep right-wing parties out.
Whatever the case, the good people of Makerfield are surely thrilled that the media and politicians will no longer be hanging around their constituency. Depending on your interpretation, they’ve either got a dedicated new MP or a man using them as a stepping stone to get the keys to 10 Downing Street.
As for the country, the drama is just beginning. To my fellow Brits, let’s hold on tight. This isn’t ending anytime soon.