The 2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election: A Preview

The Candidates

Jack Ciattarelli, businessman, former member of the NJ General Assembly, 16^th District – Republican 

• 64-year-old Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is making another attempt to the Governorship after failing to win the GOP nomination in 2017 against then-Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno and losing to incumbent Phill Murphy in the 2021 general election.
• A businessman of Italian descent, Ciattarelli served on the Raritan City Council in the 1990s and was elected to the Somerset County Board of Freeholders in 2007. Four years later, he became a Member of the General Assembly from the 16^th District after the retirement of incumbent Republican Denise Coyle.
• In recent years, Ciattarelli underwent an ideological transformation. He embraced MAGA Republicanism after labeling Trump a “charlatan” in 2015 and running as the establishment candidate in the 2021 primary, fielding attacks from his opponents – MAGA backed pastor Phil Rizzo and engineers Hirsh Singh – over his conservative bona fides. In 2020, he was forced to take part in a “Stop the Steal” rally in in order to broaden his appeal to the Trump base.
• In 2025, he gained Trump’s endorsement and coasted to the nomination over radio personality Bill Spadea and moderate Republican Jon Bramnick. His ideological shift and close alignment to the MAGA base reverberated through the political map, as Ciattarelli made substantial inroads in the same places where he struggled in four years ago.

Mikie Sherrill, U.S. Representative, NJ-11 – Democratic

• 53-year-old Democratic Candidate Mikie Sherrill was born in Alexandria, Virginia. She graduated from the Annapolis US Naval Academy and went on to serve as a Navy Pilot from 1994 to 2003. After her service in the military, she practiced law in a private firm before becoming a prosecutor as an US Assistant Attorney for the District of New Jersey.
• She was elected to Congress in the blue wave of 2018 amid a fierce backlash against the first Trump administration, winning by 15 points a previously ruby-red, suburban district in Morris County held by 12-term retiring incumbent Rodney Frelinguysen. New Jersey 11^th Congressional District was made considerably more Democratic after the 2020 Census, as it now includes a portion of the more liberal Essex County.
• Sherrill positioned herself as a moderate in Congress, joining the New Democrat Coalition and being accosted to the “Moderate Squad” together with former Representatives Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin. Sherrill’s DW-NOMINATE score – an indicator developed considering lawmakers’ ideology and voting record – is -0.257, placing her only slightly to the left of a moderate icon like Maine’s Rep. Jared Golden (-0.226).
• She came on top of a crowded field that included progressives and labor leaders in the 2025 Democratic primary. Sherrill appealed to educated suburban voters in the outer New York City Area and remained competitive in less favorable places, such as South Jersey and urban centers.
• Sherrill has held a narrow fundraising edge over Ciattarelli, having cashed in $17.5 million since August, compared to the $16.5 million brought in by the Republican candidate. The Democratic nominee reported $6.5 million left to spend, $2.5 million more than the amount currently on Ciattarelli’s hand.

The Issues

• The Burden of Incumbency – Ten months into Trump’s second term, voters’ sentiment on the President and their motivation to vote will play a major role in the November election. New Jersey voters have a history of expressing their dissatisfaction with the White House incumbent in gubernatorial races: only once since 1989 did a candidate hailing from the same party as the President win the governorship, with the only exception coming in 2021 when incumbent Phill Murphy won re-election despite Joe Biden’s unpopularity. With Trump’s approval ratings in solid negative territory, it will be a tall order for Ciattarelli to flip a historically Democratic state, despite its 10-point rightward swing in the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020.
• Minority Voters – Trump’s 2024 victory came in no small part thanks to his gains among minority voters, especially Hispanics and Asians. The group, usually more socially conservative on issues like LGBTQ+ rights, was receptive to Trump’s populist message on the economy and put off by a Democratic Party that appeared out of touch with their daily concerns on inflation and the cost of living and focused on frivolous liberal policies. This important realignment resulted in the inner New York City Area, where Asian and Latino residents make up more than 40% of the population, swinging by around  13 points to the right last fall, while Kamala Harris was able to narrow her losses among Whites. An important question will be whether Jack Ciattarelli will be able to replicate Trump inroads into minorities and, critically, turn them out. The President’s strategy to reach low-propensity voters may backfire in off-year contests, as turnout tend to drop among low-income, non-college educated constituencies. On the other hand, participation usually remains higher among wealthier and more educated Americans, who have been shifting towards the Democratic Party in recent years and played in major role in electing Sherrill to Congress.
• The Trump Agenda – The figure of Donald Trump will loom large on the November Election, as Ciattarelli tries to emulate him and Sherrill chastises him and his admiration’s policy. According to the DDHQ polling average, Trump’s approval is 7 points underwater among the general population: a gap that skyrockets to 17% with Hispanics. This comes as Democrats are trying to hammer home the message that the President’s agenda, from government shrinking to the spending cuts in Medicaid funneled to fund tax reliefs for the rich in the One Big Beautiful Bill, will ultimately disproportionately hurt minorities as well as working-class Americans. This casts fresh doubts on Ciattarelli’s ability to gather support from minorities but also low-income, non college educated voters. The latter constituency has been the building block of the MAGA movement, but it’s unclear if a former Trump critic will manage to run up sufficient margins with these voters when the President is not on the ballot.
• Moderate Democrat vs. MAGA Republican – As Ciattarelli embraced the MAGA movement, his platform moved accordingly. On the trail, he’s stressing issues that many of the President’s supporters hold dear. He’s promising to establish a New Jersey Department of Government Efficiency (NJDOGE), double down on election security and protect parents’ right against liberal ideology in schools. But he’s also focusing on the cost of living, calling for tax breaks and reforms in support of law enforcement, while opposing any cut on healthcare or housing mandate, which he says will drive costs up. On the other side, Sherrill has tried to tie his opponent to Trump –who she voted to impeach twice – and his administration’s policies. She vowed to stand up to the President and has centered her campaign around affordability and housing, promising tax credits and state loans to spur housing growth and produce clean energy, pledging to protect access to healthcare and improving the school system and transportation. 

Demographics

New Jersey is a diverse state: only half of its population is White while its share of Hispanic (23%) and Asian (10%) residents exceed that of the US a whole, making the Garden State fertile ground for the Democratic Party but also more susceptible to Trump inroads into minorities. 

New Jersey is an urban and suburban state: 43% of its population hold a college-degree, compared to 35% in the US, and it registers a Median Household Income of $101,000, compared to the national $79,000, with important geographical disparities. 

South Jersey, part of which overlaps with the Philadelphia metropolitan area, is more Black, less educated and poorer than the North and is home to a remarkably high share of union-affiliated workers. It was once a reliably Democratic region, but it’s been shifting right as Republicans make inroads with the working class. 

North Jersey is part of the New York City Metropolitan Area and features highly-educated and wealthy suburbs. Once Republican strongholds, suburban areas like Morris County have been trending left as a result of their diversification and liberals’ inroads into high-income, college-educated voters. 

Since 2012, New Jersey has become 7% less White, while Hispanic and Asian residents make up a significant bigger share of its population. In the suburban outer NYC area, the drop in White population was even sharper: 9% with a peak of 11% in Somerset County. The fast diversification of suburbs, which registered a substantial increase in Asian and Hispanic residents, helped Democrats flip some of the state’s reddest strongholds, but benefitted Trump in 2024 as he gained ground with minorities. Still, it will be more difficult for Ciattarelli to turn out these constituencies in an off-year contest, whereas Sherrill can bank on high turnout from wealthy, educated voters she used to represent in Congress.

A Hard Balance to Strike for Ciattarelli

Ciattarelli stunned the nation in 2021 when he came only 3 points short of unseating incumbent Phill Murphy in a state that had voted for Joe Biden by 16% just a year earlier. In 2024, nobody expected Trump to be so close in the Garden State, as Harris only carried New Jersey by 6%: a 10-point rightward swing compared to 2020.

Yet, it was two rather different coalitions to drive these Republican better-than-expected showings in New Jersey. In 2024, Trump’s gains were propelled by his momentous gains among minorities: highly Hispanic and Asian counties in the NYC surrounding shifted right by double digits compared to 2020, and Black areas in South Jersey trended considerably in favor of Trump. On the other hand, the President struggled more in wealthy and educated suburbs, which swung by smaller margins.

Conversely, low-diversity suburbs were one of the strongest regions for Ciattarelli in 2021: running as a more traditional Republican, he outperformed Trump by double digits in suburban areas, including the former GOP stronghold Morris County, while running behind the President in the NYC inner region.

In order to be competitive again in 2025, Ciattarelli will have to fulfill the hard task of conjugate the GOP 2021 and 2024 strengths. He will need a competitive showing among urban minorities while holding onto the suburban voters that drive his 2021 strong performance.

Regional Breakdown

Inner NYC Area (Hudson, Essex, Union, Middlesex County).

• Features – This urban region presents unique demographic characteristics: a very high share of minority population coupled with below-average levels of educational attainment and low income, all features that make it heavily Democrat but also more open to Trump inroads into lower-propensity voters.
• Election History: The region shifted right 14 points from 2020 to 2024, and was the only area were Trump did better in 2024 than Ciattarelli – by a remarkable 7-point margin. Nevertheless, the drop in turnout in an off-year contest meant Ciattarelli actually narrowed the GOP raw vote losses. In 2021, the region cast almost half as many votes as it did last November (-44%), which resulted in Ciattarelli losing roughly 90K fewer votes to his opponent compared to Trump. 
• What to watch on Election Night – As the region makes up 30% of the state’s population, it has an outsize impact on any election. Turnout will be critical: lower participation from less attuned voters, such as minorities or low-income residents, will reduce Sherrill’s raw vote edge, but at the same time hurt Ciattarelli if he can’t replicate Trump’s gains with minorities. On Election Night, keep an eye on whether or not the GOP candidate can close the gap  compared to Trump’s 2024 numbers in order to understand broader patterns regarding his appeal in urban settings. 

Outer NYC Area (Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex)

• Features – This region covers the suburbs of New York City: it features the highest Median Household Income and levels and educational attainment in the state, with peaks of 55% of college graduates in Morris, Somerset and Hunterdon County. Bergen and Passaic are the most diverse counties, with the latter being 43% Hispanic – as a result, it shifted 20% rightward in 2024. Asian population makes up a substantial share of the population also in Somerset and Morris County, while Hunterdon is the least diverse suburban county. Warren and Sussex, on the other hand, are more rural, therefore decisively Republican.
• Election History – The region as a whole shifted 11% to the right in 2024, and in 2021 Ciattarelli did only 3% better than Trump. Yet, not considering Bergen and Passaic, the most Hispanic counties, the rightward swing drops to just 6 points, while the Ciattarelli-Trump difference soars to 9.5%, underscoring Trump’s struggles in less diverse suburbs. Overall, the region cast 35% fewer ballots in 2021 compared to 2024, resulting netting a 25K-vote gain compared to Trump: take away Passaic and Bergen, and the margin increases to 45K.

What to watch on Election Night: This region will provide important insight on Election Night. As Ciattarelli aims to turn out Republican voters in the suburbs, his numbers in Hunterdon, Somerset and Morris County will give a hint on whether he’ll be able to overcome Trump’s difficulties among wealthy, educated voters, while Passaic and Bergen County may help understand how he will perform with critical minorities.

Trenton-Camden Area (Mercer, Burlington, Camden County)

• Features – Geographically closer to Philadelphia than NYC, the region stretching from Trenton to Camden features both urban and suburban traits. While the whole area is home to a higher share (18%) of Black population than the state as a whole, Burlington County is the least diverse and registers above average MHI and educational attainment. Mercer, home to Trenton and Princeton University, is the most educated, Asian and Hispanic county among the three, while Camden, directly neighboring Philadelphia, has a below-average median income and is the least educated. 
• Election History – Given Trump’s difficulties among college-educated voters and considering that his gains among urban Black voters were less extended than among Hispanics, the region as a whole swung only 5 points to the right in 2024 – with suburban Burlington moving only 3% in Trump‘s favor. Conversely, Ciattarelli did 6 points better than the President’s 2024 performance: he struggled in Mercer and Camden (+3%), but ran 7 points  ahead in Burlington: this, coupled with lower urban turnout in the off-year contest, resulted in Ciattarelli losing 80K fewer votes than Trump.

What to watch on Election Night: The region’s urban and suburban composition will provide double insights on Election Night. Results coming from Trenton and Camden will test Ciattarelli strengths with low-income minorities, while early votes from wealthy, educated areas will tell if Sherrill is able to run up margins in suburbs outside her former Congressional District in North Jersey. 

Jersey Shore (Monmouth, Ocean County)

• Features – This is the region of New Jersey with the highest share of White population, as Black, Hispanic and Asian residents make up less than 20% of its residents. A touristic region that covers almost half of the state’s coastline, the area is the most GOP-leaning in the state. While Monmouth County is more suburban, with 50% of its population holding a college degree and a higher-than-average MHI, Ocean counties retains some rural traits. It also has a lower share of college graduates (33%) and a MHI of $86,000, compared to the Garden State’s $101,000.
• Election History – In 2024, the region shifted 8% in Trump’s favor compared to 2020, with Monmouth County swinging slightly more to the right than the less-educated Ocean, confirming the sizable extent of Trump inroads into White voters in New Jersey (reference EI). The President’s strength with lower income Whites meant Ciattarelli did only 4 points better in 2021: he actually ran behind the President in Ocean County, only to outperform Trump by 7% in the more suburban Monmouth county. The drop in turnout in 2021 (-35%) coupled with a small Ciattarelli-Trump difference resulted in Trump gaining 40K more votes over Harris that Ciattarelli: a critical gap considering that the GOP lost the governorship by just 85K ballots in 2021.
• What to watch on Election Night – On Election Night, results from this region will tell if Ciattarelli is doing a good enough job turning out voters in GOP-friendly regions. Monmouth County will be critical as Ciattarelli used to run very strongly with White suburban voters, but in order to win in a low-turnout contest, he needs to outrun the President even with lower-income, non-college educated constituents. Ocean County may present a litmus test on his ability to run up big margins with these voters.

South Jersey

• Features – South Jersey is home to a significantly share of Black (12%) and Hispanic (16%) population – particularly in Cumberland County, which is 35% Latino. With the exception of Gloucester County, the region is remarkably poorer and less college-educated than the rest of the Golden State, with a Median Household Income of $85,000 and only 30% of its population holding a college degree – a number that dips below 25% in Salem and Cumberland County. South Jersey also registers an important presence of blue-collar workers, which makes unions extremely powerful – it is not a case that union leaders Sean Spiller and Steve Sweeney came on top in the region in the 2025 Democratic primary – and a higher-than-average share of unemployed population (6.7%). These traits used to rendered the area more Democratic-leaning, but recent Republican gains into the working class turned it red, as Trump carried every county in 2024.
• Election History – While the area’s poorest and most diverse counties (Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland) shifted 9% in Trump’s favor in 2024, his difficulties in the Whiter and more educated Gloucester and Cape May County resulted in the region trending right only by 6 points. Overall, Ciattarelli did 8% better than Trump in South Jersey, with very similar gaps across the 5 counties, as Republicans benefit from drops in Black turnout in off-year elections – the region casts 38% fester votes in 2021 than it did in 2024. Despite his substantial outperformance, turnout drop means Ciattarelli only netted only 12K ballots compared to Trump in 2024.
• What to watch for on Election Night – The region will provide important information on whether Ciattarelli maintains his outperformance in White suburbs – look at Gloucester and Cape May County – as well as Sherrill’s ability to turn out low-propensity, low-income minority voters who have recently been trending rightward.  

Conclusion

As the growth and diversification of suburbs is likely to offset any GOP gains into urban minorities in a historically blue state, the race between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli will be an important test to understand the first reactions to second Trump administration and the possibilities for both parties to expand their coalitions beyond their usual boundaries.

According to DDHQ polling average, Sherrill holds a 4.5-point advantage over Ciattarelli after the gap between the two candidates shrunk in the latest weeks, translating into a roughly 4-in-5 chance of winning for the Democratic nominee as per Polymarket. The bottom line: while Democrats will somewhat likely hold in the Governor’s office, a Republican upset is still very possible, with an ample range of results that may give insight on a broader sentiment of the electorate as well as the evolution of electoral coalitions.