The 2025 New York City Mayoral Election: A Preview

The Candidates

Zohran Mamdani, Member of the New York State Assembly, 36^th District (Democratic)

Biography

• Born in Uganda to an Indian filmmaker and a Columbia University academic, during his childhood Mamdani and his family migrated to South Africa and then to the US, settling in Manhattan. He graduated from the prestigious Bronx High School of Science and attended Bowdoin College in Maine.
• Mamdani worked as Housing Counselor and foreclosure prevention officer and served as an aide to multiple progressive figures, helping in Palestinian pastor Khader El-Yateem’s 2017 campaign for the City Council as well as fellow democratic socialist Tiffany Caban’s bid to the Queens County District Attorney in 2019. He joined the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in 2017.

Electoral history and positions

• In 2020, he unseated a four-term Democratic incumbent in New York State Assembly’s 36^th District, covers part of Astoria and Long Island City in Queens. His progressive platform focused on housing needs and rents, bringing forward controversial policies such as rolling back the presence of police in prisons to in education and community and state control of utilities companies.
• In 2025, he ran as an underdog in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, defeating Andrew Cuomo by doble-digits in a victory than stunned pundits and the establishment of the party. Mamdani’s campaign is centered on the cost of living and housing, notably calling for a freeze on rent for 1 million people living in rent-stabilized apartments. He also pledged to make buses free and support congestion pricing on traffic, triple number of available housing units, raise the corporate tax to 11.5% and improve childcare. Mamdani also promised to create a Department of Community Service and Trump-proof the city, particularly when it comes to the administration’s deportation plans. 
• While many progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) endorsed Mamdani, other figures in the party have refrained from throwing their support behind the Democratic nominee, including fellow New Yorkers House and Senate Minority Leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. Mamdani has actively tried to assuage concerns that higher taxes will push business out of the City as well accusation of anti-semitism following his reluctance to condemn the phrase “globalize the Intifada”.

Andrew Cuomo, Former Governor of New York (Fight and Deliver)

Biography

• The son of former New York Governor Mario Cuomo (1983-1994), Andrew worked for his father as a campaign manager and policy advisor. Outside of politics, he practiced law and briefly served as a Manhattan assistant district attorney and chair of the NYC Homeless Commission.
• In 1993, Cuomo was appointed by President Bill Clinton Assistant Secretary for Community Planning and Development in the HUD, only to become himself Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in 1997. During his tenure, he fought for more housing, jobs, ending discrimination and rehabilitate the image of the Department, not without controversy for his political ambitions.

A political strongman

• After a failed attempt to Governorship in 2002, he was elected Attorney General in 2006. In 2010, Cuomo ran again for Governor and won in a landslide. He gained national reputation as a forceful, pragmatic leader amid a notorious feud with progressive NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio. His major accomplishments include legalization of same sex marriage in 2011, a series of infrastructure investments throughout 2013, the passage of a state minimum wage of $15 in 2016, and legalization of recreational marijuana in 2018.
• Cuomo soared to political heights during COVID. His daily briefings and clashing with Trump over the federal government’s response caught national attention, leading to speculations about him replacing replace Biden on top of the 2020 Democratic ticket. Then, in January 2021, a report from Attorney general Letitia James finding the he had undercounted deaths in nursing homes marked the begging of his political downfall – Cuomo aides defended the Governor saying they feared prosecution from Trump. No charges brought by the Brooklyn District, even though a House Committee on the pandemic in 2024 recommend prosecution after a testimony from Cuomo.
• In February 2021, a former aide accused him of sexual harassment. On August 3, the state attorney generals office issued a 165-page report finding he sexually harassed nearly a dozen women during his tenure. Amid overwhelming political pressure, he resigned on August 11. In November, state legislators released an impeachment report that found he abused his power while writing a memoir in 2020 and downplayed the impact of COVID in nursing homes.
• In the 2025 NYC mayoral primary, he gained the endorsement of the party’s establishment – such as Bill Clinton and Mike Bloomberg – as well as major unions. He focused on affordability, his record as governor, labor, crime, taking on Trump. His campaign initially featured few public events, even if Cuomo has reversed his approach after losing to Mamdani, with more off-the-cuff remarks and social media  appearances. While he trails in campaign contributions, super PACs can play a major role for Cuomo: during the primary, the aligned Fix The City political committee raised a record breaking $25 million. He declared to be open to withdraw from the race if he shouldn’t be leading in polls in November. 

The DROPOUT: Eric Adams, incumbent NYC Mayor – Independent 

Biography

• A Brooklyn native, Adams endured a rough and poor childhood. At 15, he spent a few days at Spofford juvenile detention center, which motivates him to become an NYPD Police Officer. During his service, he called for internal reforms and spoke against police brutality and racial disparities. He retired in 2006 as a captain after being found guilty by an internal investigation of criticizing Mayor Bloomberg in official capacity.
• He tried to run for Congress in 1994, but didn’t gather enough signatures. In 1997, he switched his registration to Republican – he says out of dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership – only to return to the Democratic Party in 2001. In 2006, he was elected to the New York State Senate from the 20^th District, covering parts of Brooklyn. He served four terms until 2013, supporting same-sex marriage, focusing on crime and opposing stop-and-frisk.

A turbulent political legacy

• From 2013 to 2021, Adams served as President of the Brooklyn Borough, focusing on housing issues. In 2021, he won the mayoral election running as crime-focused moderate Democrat. During his tenure, he concentrated on jobs, housing and crime, increasing patrols on the subway and fighting antisemitism. He had to grapple with a big influx of migrants sent to NYC from red states like Texas or Florida, which led Adams to criticize Biden’s approach to immigration. 
• Adams was federally indicted in September 2024 on bribery, conspiracy and fraud charges. He was accused of receiving gifts from Turkish officials in exchange for expediting the opening of a consulate when he was Brooklyn Borough President. Adams denies the charges, arguing they came as a retaliation from the Biden administration and they were dropped by the Trump DOJ in February, as the administration argued a federal investigation would prevent his from fulfilling his duties – among which helping the government carry out its deportation plan.
• Renegade by his own party, in the 2025 campaign Adams touted a blue-collar record, his focus on class mobility, as well as job growth and criminality drop during his term, despite exceptionally low approval ratings. He spoke against socialism, casting Mamdani as an elitist and trying to build on a diverse coalition, from Black clergy to Latino pastors and Jewish faith leaders. Still, after failing to secure significant support in polls and without public marching funds – denied to his campaign following the bribery scandal by the City’s Campaign Finance Board – he dropped out of the race and endorsed Andrew Cuomo after years of acrimony and derogatory comments exchanged by the two. How his supporters will break in November may still be decisive in the race as Cuomo tries to court them in order to strengthen his grip on Black, working-class voters in his quest to appeal to a more moderate electorate across the spectrum and stave off a Mamdani victory. 

Curtis Sliwa – Republican

• A conservative radio personality, Sliwa is the founder of “Guardian Angels”, a civilian grouped focused on clamping down on crime in subways. In 2021, he lost by 40 points to Eric Adams in the mayoral election. 
• As a nonconventional Republican who has not gained President Trump’s endorsement, Sliwa has made clear that he will not drop out of a race, hoping to gain from a split liberal field and win support from moderate Democrats reluctant to back both the socialist Mamdani and the scandal-plagued Cuomo.

The Demographics of New York City

New York City is renowned to be one of the most diverse places in the whole country, as White residents make up only 31% of its population, 20 points lower compared to the US. Conversely, the share of Hispanic, Black and Asian population is almost 10% bigger than the national average, even though minorities are concentrated in specific areas rather than being spread out across the city. 

Latino population is highly concentrated between the Bronx and North Queens, while most Asians reside in South Brooklyn, Lower Manhattan and Queens. African Americans densely populate Central Brooklyn and Southeast Queens, and make up a significant share of the population in the Bronx and Harlem, while Whites are the largest ethnic group in Staten Island, Manhattan as well as South and Downtown Brooklyn and parts of Queens: the most diverse neighborhood in the city that is home to many “ethnic Whites”, that is to say those that don’t have Anglo-Saxon roots, which registered important rightward shifts in 2024.

Overall, New York City registers a higher share of college-educated population than the US – 42.5% to 35% – and a slightly lower Median Household Income – $77K to $79K – even though it features profound inequalities between neighborhoods. Wealth is concentrated in Manhattan, parts of Queens and Downtown Brooklyn, while in the Bronx the median income does not exceed $50K and only 22% of the population holds a college degree. This number pales compared to Manhattan’s 64%, while Brooklyn and Queens are in line with the national average: 35% of Queens’ residents are college graduates, while the highly educated Downtown Brooklyn carries the borough’s share to 41%. Staten Island, a White-majority Borough that voted for Trump by 30 points in 2024, has the second highest MHI after Manhattan – 99K – but its levels of educational attainment are in line with the US – 36% of its residents are college graduates.

Importantly, NYC has a higher share (22%) of young adults – people aged 20 to 34 – than the nation as a whole: a constituency that helped propel Zohran Mamdani to his victory in the June Democratic primary. The Big Apple also registers a higher-than-average unemployment rate, rendering the cost of living an even more important issue for candidates to grapple with.

The Politics of New York City

New York City has been a Democratic stronghold since almost 100 years, as it last voted for a Republican presidential candidate back in 1924. Liberals’ strength among minorities, blue-collar, low-income voters coupled with ironclad support for Democrats by wealthy and educated White voters results in a remarkable political paradox: Democratic candidates in presidential elections used to run up the biggest margins in one the poorest and least educated as well as one of the wealthiest and most educated areas in the nation. For example, in 2016 Hillary Clinton won The Bronx by 79% and Manhattan by 77 points, while carrying Brooklyn and Queens, which feature educational attainment and income levels in line with the US, respectively by “only” 62 and 53 points. 

In 2024, Borough hierarchies were somewhat shuffled. Trump made momentous gains with minorities, especially Hispanic and Asian voters, as well as inroads into blue-collar, low-income voters without a college degree affected by the cost of living and inflation. As a consequence, the Bronx voted for Kamala Harris by just 45%, a 33-point rightward swing compared to 2016, and only 1% to the left of Brooklyn which, with is wealthier and more educated population, swung in Trump’s favor by a smaller 18-point margin from 2016 and by 11% from 2020. On the contrary, Manhattan shifted only by 12% compared to 2016, as Harris carried the Borough by 65%, the same margin it voted in favor of John Kerry in 2004, when incumbent President George W. Bush pulled off the second best GOP performance in NYC in the 2000s. Importantly, Queens registered the second biggest shift from 2020, voting for Harris by only 25%, confirming a national trend that saw Trump making gains even in high-income areas that feature  lower-than-average educational attainment levels.

Trump’s 38-point loss to Harris was the best GOP showing in the City in the 2000s, followed by Bush’s 2004 showing, coming in the wake of 9/11 attacks and after Republican Party held its first convention in New York City. Yet, signs of erosion in Democratic cropped up well before 2024. As the liberal coalition has become wealthier and more educated, signals of Democrats losing footing among minorities and blue collars date back at least to 2020. The City swung 9% to the right from the 2012 Obama-driven peak, a shift driven by Trump’s double-digits gains in The Bronx and Queens that came in lieu of Biden doing 6% better than his former boss in Manhattan.

When it comes to Mayoral elections, NYC’s high partisan leaning towards Democrats emerged only in recent years. After New Yorkers elected GOP Rudy Giuliani in 1993 and 1997 amid a crime-crisis, Democrats could not gain control of the City Hall until 2013, after 3 consecutive terms of Republican-turned-independent Mike Bloomberg. In the latest three elections, Democratic candidates won by resounding margins, regardless of national environment conditions, with the party primary becoming the most competitive contest that would effectively decide the Mayor. Yet, with four major candidates vying for the City Hall, the 2025 November election will be more open than ever. Three-Democratic leaning candidate will fight for liberal votes, potentially clashing over the same voters and giving a small opening to Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

The General Election

Two liberal candidates, Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo, will fight to win over Democratic-aligned voters.

Importantly, Mamdani’s coalition seems to be the most ideologically defined, with Cuomo trying to appeal to voters skeptical of the other candidates as well as former Adams supporters while casting himself as the epitome of a moderate, anti-Mamdani front. Mamdani’s focus on housing and affordability coupled with his progressive proposals and embrace of socialism made him the preferred candidates for the youth, which participated in the June primary at significantly high rates, as well as of educated and wealthy White voters. Cuomo’s moderation, legacy and support from labor leaders should have given him an edge with low-income working class minority voters with little education. In fact, he only held onto Black voter  as Mamdani’s message resonated with Hispanic and Asian voters, who broke for the progressive Democrat. Critically, Adams persona and appeal differ drastically from Mamdani’s, looking more similar to the former Governor’s. His opposition to socialism, focus on crime and ambiguous approach to the Trump administration – which dismissed charges against him in what many regard as a politically-motivated move – make Adams a more socially conservative candidate, enhancing his appeal to working class minorities, especially Blacks, who may more prone to switch their allegiance to Cuomo rather than Mamdani. 

This difference between Mamdani’s and Adams’ coalitions  is visible looking at the first round of the 2025 and 2021 Democratic Primary:  Adams’ best showing came unsurprisingly in the Bronx, the borough Mamdani lost to Cuomo by the biggest margin (18%). The Socialist Democrat did best in Kings County, beating Cuomo by 17 points thanks to his performance in Downtown Brooklyn, where Adams margin of victory was the tiniest. The incumbent mayor ran ahead of Mamdani in Queens, while he was trounced in the White and educated Manhattan, which Mamdani won by a small 5-percent margin.

In fact, a major difference in terms of voters’ appeal between Adams and Cuomo appears to be their showing among to top 10% wealthiest and most educated voters. Thanks to his ties to the economic and political establishment of the City, the former Governor was able to narrow the gap to Mamdani among the very-rich, running closer to the progressive Democratic in elite areas like the Upper East Side.

But except for their showing with the very-rich and the fact that Adams could have drawn some conservative support due to his flirtation with the Trump administration – in fact, he never even endorsed Kamala Harris for President in 2024 – the Mayor and Cuomo retain many similarities, meaning that a hefty number of former Adams supporters may end up voting for Cuomo, boosting his chance to build an anti-socialist coalition against Mamdani – assuming the former Governor is able to win over a portion of moderate Republicans who may view Curtis Sliwa as their preferred candidate but still be open to vote for Cuomo in order to prevent a socialist from being elected mayor of NYC.

If Mamdani faces only one prominent opponent – i.e. support for Sliwa will end up being marginal – he may be seriously challenged given the concerns he has raised outside his own coalition both on the economy and antisemitism. His main opponent, Andrew Cuomo, has had have plenty of time and resources to mount a targeted campaign against someone who will no longer benefit from being seen as the underdog. On the other hand, while Mamdani consistently polls below 50%, the former Governor is consistently 10 to 15 points below his main opponent, something that results in Polymarket giving him only a 10% chance of winning in November. In order to prevail, Cuomo would need to pull an upset similar to Mamdani’s primary victory back in June: not impossible, but still unlikely at a moment when the anti-Mamdani movement has struggled to match the socialist’s campaign’s levels of enthusiasm and engagement.