With the threat of a government shutdown looming over Congress, it will finally come down to Senate Democrats to decide whether to ultimately agree to the GOP-proposed extension bill or close down the government and usher in a political crisis whose outcome remains incredibly hard to predict.
Despite Republicans holding a trifecta in Washington, controlling the White House and benefiting from a majority in both the House and the Senate, Democrats do have the power to prevent a bill that would fund the federal government through November 20 from passing the US Upper Chamber relying on a procedural move known as “filibuster” – which, incidentally, Democrats unsuccessfully to abolish in 2022, failing to win over the votes of Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. Unlike federal budget legislation – such as the Big One Beautiful Bill – extension packages that fund government need 60 votes in order to end the debate on the Chamber and begin the voting process: in other words, the GOP, which holds a 53-seat majority – will need 7 Democratic senators to cross the aisle to avert a government shutdown – Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman has signaled he will vote in favor of the bill.
What Democrats Want
Democrats have tried to use their leverage to demand action on an area they want to put at the center of the 2026 campaign and where they consistently outshine Republicans in polls: healthcare. When Senate and House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries met with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, they asked for concessions over cuts to Medicare, in particular, to reverse the expiration of federal subsidies which would hike premiums starting from next year. But GOP leaders have made it sufficiently clear that they are more than reluctant to cave to demands from the other side of the isle and that they believe it is Democrats’ duty to vote in favor of a clean resolution that would keep the government open.
The current situation raises a fundamental conundrum for Democrats: should they ply to the GOP requests in order to protect government employers from Trump’s whims, who would have more discretion over the federal workforce in case of a shutdown and could potentially implement steep and expensive cuts, even if this would surely enrage the party’s base and probably expose establishment figures to primary challenges from progressives? Or should they show a resolve to fight head-on an administration that is challenging the rule of law – from the recent indictment of James Comey, to the crackdown on free speech and research institutions and the deployment of the National Guard in blue cities – at the potential cost of being blamed by the public for a government shutdown that would leave some federal employees unpaid and cost billions to economy?
While Democrats keep reminding the public that Republicans are in control of Washington and should be responsible for an eventual shutdown, and tying healthcare to the issue was certainly a smart move, considering that Americans tend to trust them more compared to other areas such as crime or immigration, deliberately shutting down the federal government comes with its own risks.
The Risks
President Trump seems to view a possible government closure as a way to proceed even faster to the federal workforce re-organizing – or gutting – that Democrats abhor, possibly paving the way for a prolonged shutdown, which would grave heavily on Schumer and colleagues as the American public tend to sour on the side asking for concessions in such periods, as shown by the negative reception of President Trump during the 2018-2019 shutdown and then-House Majority Leader Newt Gingrich during the 1995-1996, both of which triggered the funding elapse by insisting on their demands.
On top of that, it would be somewhat challenging for Democrats to explain to the American people the technicalities of the Medicare subsidies, which would allow Republicans to spin the story over subjects where they still comfortably lead, benefitting from the unpopularity of the Democratic brand, such as immigration – possibly tying the issues at stake to some provisions in the OBBA Act that strip Medicare from legal migrants and punish states that provide benefits to undocumented people – and the economy.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party needs to confront a novel challenge: it is now broadly regarded as the establishment party. During past shutdown, political coalitions were clearly Devi defined, with Democrats supporting more government intervention in benefits for the American workers and the middle class and Republicans pushing for spending cuts in order to reduce the fiscal burden to the richest Americans, something that inevitably used to put the GOP on a hot spot. But today, the lines are definitely more blurred: as the Democratic coalition has become increasingly educated and after Trump gains into minority and blue collar workers, it should not come as a surprise if the public laid the blame on the establishment party – i.e. Democrats – if the same establishment failed to deliver basic funding for the government to function.
Conclusion
Overall, Democrats should be wary of throwing Trump a lifeline ahead of next year’s midterms: with an approval rating of only 45% according to the latest DDHQ average and with voters disapproving of his most controversial actions as well as handling of the inflation, President Trump seem poised to lose control of the House in 2026, as did any other incumbent in “linear” midterms years in this polarized times. Considering how incumbents tend to underperform in midterm contests, Democrats’ best strategy ahead of next year would probably revolve around a wait-and-see approach, relying on high-frequency voters without risking a perilous political stunt that could be a game-changer for the party in power – after all, every time the incumbent party has outperformed in midterms it benefited from an unexpected event that turned the tables: the reversal of Roe v Wade in 2022, the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2002, and the attempted impeachment of President Clinton in 1998, which famously backfired helping Democrats net 5 seats.
While such a cautious approach by Democrats would certainly turn down the base of the party, which may be even more crucial in 2028 when the GOP turnout disadvantage will shrink, plunging the country into a government shutdown may not be the best strategy looking at next years midterms, which probably explains why Republican leaders seem unfazed by the prospect of a government closure.