Democrats are finally starting to lose their zeal for constantly rehashing the 2024 presidential election. The stream of election-related recaps has slowed to a trickle. Pundits have come to their conclusions about Biden’s debate performance and his exit from the race. The former president has receded from the headlines and started quietly making speeches and holding events to show his continued vigor. Kamala Harris has also failed to gain traction with her musings about running in 2028 and her recent book.
But soon, these same kinds of conflicts will reemerge on a daily basis in the runup to the 2028 presidential election. It is clear that Gavin Newsom will run against one or multiple leftist challengers. These candidates will bash each other on foreign and domestic policy for years, soaking up considerable airtime in the process.
An easily-manipulated base
One issue that Democrats will need to face is the ability of their vocal, online, and fickle leftist supporters to be manipulated in 2028, either through constant attacks on the party’s nominee or through questionable third-party challengers. This problem will not go away as long as the nation remains polarized in our social media era and Russia continues to interfere in the elections of other countries.
The template of third party agitation in the modern era was set in 2016. In that election, Russian spies and Republican operatives realized that they could use social media to take advantage of rising online leftism to undermine the Democratic Party. They began amplifying talking points that attacked Hillary Clinton from the left and pushed Democrats to either stay at home or vote for a third party. Organizations used fake social media profiles and organized in-person events across the country. Their influence may have made the difference in a close race.
Disinformation
The disinformation effort slowed in 2020 but picked up again in 2024. The atrocious war in Gaza helped provide a focal point for leftists unhappy with the Biden administration. Anti-Democrat anger helped fuel multiple third-party candidacies, most notably the brief run of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and the longer experiment of Cornel West. These third parties did not decide what ended up being a considerable Trump victory in today’s close partisan climate. But they did help to reduce interest in the Harris campaign and fuel issues that harmed her politically.
Democrats need to have a strong fight for the future of the party. They need to devote 2027 and early 2028 to figuring out what exactly they want in a new candidate. But then, they need to coalesce around that figure and suppress bad faith criticism from the party’s far left, with words at first and then with ostracization and party sanctions. The country cannot put the future of democracy on the line to placate a handful of activists partially sponsored by a foreign power.