Amid the ongoing gerrymandering fight between Democrats and Republicans to squeeze out additional House seats in a mid-decade redistricting, it has been pointed out how red states have more leeway redrawing their maps – due to the absence of independent commissions – giving the GOP more opportunities to gain further district in Republican-controlled territory.
While Democrats do face important issues pertaining to internal consensus and have in some instances delegated the power to draw states map to independent bodies, the prospect of a full-drawn Redistricting War – i.e. where a substantial number of states adopt new maps beyond Texas and California – puts liberals in the position to strike back and, particularly after 2026, gain even more seats than Republicans.
VRA could benefit Democrats down the road
The first issue that could play into the battle down the road is the Voting Right Act of 1965, which prohibits discrimination based on race when it comes to election matters. In simpler terms, it prevents congressional maps from diluting distinct minority populations, which historically favor Democrats.
That is similar to what Texas Republicans have done drawing the contested new map which could net the GOP 3 to 5 seats. In order to turn liberal districts in big cities red, they “replaced” urban Hispanics with rural Latino voters, who are disproportionately more Republican: the total demographic makeup is virtually unchanged, but the minority group representation is different. The legality of such a move is questionable, as the map does crack an electorally homogeneous minority group, and court battles are expected to ensue, even though the conservative makeup of the 5th Circuit of Court of Appeals and the US Supreme Court means plaintiffs need to work hard in order to have a map struck down on the basis of the VRA.
The Supreme Court, particularly with some of the most conservative justices, has voiced openness to weaken the requirements put in place by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, mainly in lawsuits originally brought targeting red states’ gerrymandering efforts. But if the Supreme Court were to significantly alter the VRA, for instance in a Louisiana case the justices will review this fall, it would significantly benefit Democrats, possibly even more than the GOP.
Blue State Impacts
In blue states, the VRA results in a number of majority-minority districts being concentrated in urban areas, while exurban districts remain overwhelmingly White, hence Republican leaning, handing the GOP seats even in states that vote overwhelmingly blue in presidential elections. But with a White population that is still more willing to vote for Democrats compared to the national average, blue states would be able to win even in districts where the share of minority population is slightly less than 50%. Without VRA requirements, this means that they could dilute the minority population in districts spanning from urban to rural areas and, thanks to favorable demographics, nullify the power of exurban Republicans.
While the GOP could, hypothetically, win back a bunch of urban minority-majority seats across the red states without VRA restrictions, Democrats would be able to wipe the floor with the GOP in many blue states where Republicans still elect a sizable number of representatives. Those are in states like Virginia and Colorado, where maps drawn by independent commissions have yielded highly competitive districts and split the states’ congressional delegation, despite both becoming reliably blue at a federal level.
A hypothetic gerrymander render Virginia’s map uncompetitive and net Democrats as many as four seats in Colorado given the states’s favorable geography: this come on top of a possible gain of four seats in New York, two in Washington and one in Maryland, Illinois and Oregon. Overall, Democrats could peel away as many as three districts from the GOP if the Redistricting War strings out and the right conditions are met – Democrats rally together, get rid of independent commissions and retake control of the Virginia governorship and Minnesota legislature.
Democrats do face important challenges to fight back the GOP redistricting fight before 2026, if the war strings out they are in fact positioned to benefit as much as Republicans from a scenario where every map is strongly gerrymandered and without restrictions from the Voting Rights Act, not accounting for the damage made to democracy.