When the polls closed in Nevada in the presidential election of 2024, the state was thought to be competitive by most close followers, but it was not thought to be truly in play overall. Of the primary swing states in 2024, Nevada was one of the most consistent Democratic leaning swing states in the 2008-2024 era. However, as the following results will show, as divided between the top and bottom counties by population, the Republican candidate in 2024 and the former President of the United States from 2016-2020, won Nevada in the election of 2024.
Background Information
Nevada has been admitted as a state by the Abraham Lincoln-led Republican Party on October 31st, 1864, under auspicious circumstances. Critics of President Lincoln charged that Lincoln had introduced Nevada as a state to bolster the Republican electoral college advantage edge in this era, a charge President Lincoln denied, instead stating that he desired to give some of the Western Territories of the United States formal recognition as states. Nevada, after this point, went through several periods of Democratic and Republican Party rule, ping-ponging between the two political parties for various offices before becoming a Republican leaning state from the 1968-1988 period. In 1992, President Bill Clinton won the state with a plurality of the vote (37.36%) to the two major opposing candidates, then President George H.W. Bush (who received 34.73% of the vote) and eccentric third-party candidate and successful businessman Ross Perot (who took 26.19%). Bill Clinton would then win it 43.93%-42.91% against Bob Dole, a United States Senator from Kansas and the 1996 Republican Presidential nominee. However, in 2000, Nevada reverted to that prior Republican form, with Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush (the son of George H.W. Bush) defeating Albert Gore (Clinton’s vice president and the Democratic nominee for president) 49.5%-46% in the state. George W. Bush would then carry the state in 2004 re-election bid 50.5%–47.9%, a slight decrease from the amount he won the state by in 2000, despite carrying the popular vote in 2004. Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the future Democratic Senate Majority Leader, created a grassroots political machine of get out the vote efforts and fundraising in the state that was informally called “The Reid Machine.” The Democratic Party from 2005-2008 began to make more investments in the state ahead of the 2008 Presidential election, in which President George W. Bush would be term limited from running again due to the term limits Presidents face.
In 2008, disaster struck the economy when a banking and housing bubble burst, causing a severe economic downturn that the United States is in some ways still recovering from. This event, which slammed into the state of Nevada with a force greater than in some other states due to the state’s unique type of economy, coupled with widespread Democratic dissatisfaction with the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, created a perfect storm for the Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, who won Nevada 55.2%-42.7% over Republican nominee John McCain. Obama, in his re-election bid in 2012, would win the state 52.4%-45.7% over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, a noticeable decrease in margin.
In the 2016 presidential campaign, a hard-fought and nasty affair between the two presidential candidates, Donald Trump for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats, Clinton would win the state in her loss to Trump 47.9%-45.5%, about a 2.5% margin. In 2020, President Joe Biden (Obama’s vice president for both of Obama’s terms) would win the state 50.1%-47.7%, which was a slight decrease from Clinton’s winning margin four years earlier.
In other words, even as President Biden increased the Democratic vote share in the popular vote, Biden won by the same percentage margin as Hillary Clinton did four yeas earlier with a small plurality of the national vote. In 2024, this would all change as the “Reid Machine” finally broke down, allowing the Republican candidate to win the state for the first time since George W. Bush’s narrow win in 2004.
Election Data and Maps
| County | Trump (R) | Harris (D) | Other | Total | Trump% | Harris% |
| Carson City | 16,873 | 13,375 | 820 | 31,068 | 54.31% | 43.05% |
| Churchill | 9,962 | 3,179 | 362 | 13,503 | 73.78% | 23.54% |
| Clark | 493,052 | 520,187 | 17,984 | 1,031,223 | 47.81% | 50.44% |
| Douglas | 23,237 | 11,553 | 766 | 35,556 | 65.35% | 32.49% |
| Elko | 17,352 | 4,632 | 481 | 22,465 | 77.24% | 20.62% |
| Esmeralda | 376 | 73 | 12 | 461 | 81.56% | 15.84% |
| Eureka | 910 | 104 | 22 | 1,036 | 87.84% | 10.04% |
| Humboldt | 6,141 | 1,711 | 178 | 8,030 | 76.48% | 21.31% |
| Lander | 2,180 | 482 | 63 | 2,725 | 80.00% | 17.69% |
| Lincoln | 2,108 | 314 | 50 | 2,472 | 85.28% | 12.70% |
| Lyon | 23,861 | 8,954 | 726 | 33,541 | 71.14% | 26.70% |
| Mineral | 1,528 | 711 | 56 | 2,295 | 66.58% | 30.98% |
| Nye | 18,946 | 7,559 | 492 | 26,997 | 70.18% | 28.00% |
| Pershing | 1,764 | 496 | 48 | 2,308 | 76.43% | 21.49% |
| Storey | 2,108 | 913 | 54 | 3,075 | 68.55% | 29.69% |
| Washoe | 127,443 | 130,071 | 6,220 | 263,734 | 48.32% | 49.32% |
| White Pine | 3,364 | 883 | 104 | 4,351 | 77.32% | 20.29% |
| Total | 751,205 | 705,197 | 28,438 | 1,484,840 | 50.59% | 47.49% |
| Margin | R +46,008 | R +3.10% |
County Splits by Population (By Population)
| Clark/Washoe | 620,495 | 650,258 | 4,234 | 1,270,753 | 48.83% | 51.17% |
| D +29,763 | D +2.34% | |||||
| Rest of State | 130,710 | 54,939 | 4,234 | 189,883 | 68.84% | 28.93% |
| R +75,771 | R +39.90% |
Election Results
In the Nevada Presidential Election, President Trump was able to win the state by limiting Democratic vice president and 2024 presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s win in Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno) a net of 29,763 votes while winning the two counties by 2.34%. However, outside of these two counties, Trump won the rest of the state by 75,771 votes, a 39.9% advantage, allowing him to win the swing state of Nevada by 46,008 votes out of some 1,484,840 votes cast.
With Trump’s victory in Nevada, the state looks set to be a swing state going forward, with Republicans making voter registration gains over the past few years. The state is sure to be contested closely on the presidential level in the 2028 Presidential Election, making it one to watch in the future.