It’s officially time. We’ve trickled out our final House, Senate, and Gubernatorial ratings throughout the day, and now it’s time to unveil our Presidential projection for the 2024 cycle. Nobody could have expected going into this cycle that this election would be as tumultuous – and interesting – as it turned out to be. Now, voters will decide whether Kamala Harris will succeed Joe Biden, or whether Donald Trump will return to the White House for one final term.
Heading into Election Day, we think Kamala Harris is the favorite to win the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next President of the United States. Our final ratings update features changes in seven states – all but one of which favors Harris.
Ratings Changes
- Arizona: Tossup to Leans Republican
- Georgia: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Iowa: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
- Michigan: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Ohio: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
- Pennsylvania: Tossup to Leans Democratic
- Wisconsin: Tossup to Leans Democratic
First off, we’re moving two Safe states onto the board. In an abundance of caution, we’re shifting Iowa and Ohio from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. This is primarily due to the Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa. We’re not convinced this poll is entirely accurate, but it has given us pause enough to reconsider Harris’s broader standing in the Rust Belt – a region Democrats have polled well in for much of this election cycle.
Next, we’re shifting Arizona to the Leans Republican column. Donald Trump has led in virtually all polls this cycle, including recent polls. The most recent gold standard NYT/Siena poll showed Trump ahead by four with registered voters; we don’t think he wins by that much, but we do think he broadly has an edge here. At the same time, we’re holding firm on our Leans Democratic rating for neighboring Nevada.
In Georgia, we think Kamala Harris is also the favorite. While Donald Trump has led in most polls, we think the fundamentals in this race play against him. He has a lot of room to fall in the Atlanta suburbs, and there’s no evidence that these trends have changed or abated. And barring a revolt among black voters – something that seems increasingly unlikely – Republicans will have to rely on increasing their share of rural white voters. Notably, a recent NYT/Siena poll didn’t indicate a realignment with black voters, and showed Harris ahead. We’re moving it to Leans Democratic.
Finally, in the biggest shift of this update, we’re moving all three Rust Belt swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – to Leans Democratic. Even before Joe Biden dropped out, polling showed Democrats in a stronger position in the industrial midwest than the Sun Belt, and we think this is still the case now. Polling averages show a near dead-heat in all three states, but we think Harris has the advantage.
Final Ratings
With these three Rust Belt swing states in her camp, we think Kamala Harris has the 270 electoral votes needed to be elected President. It’s worth noting that she could afford to lose one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, as Georgia and Nevada collectively provide a buffer that would keep her just barely above 270.
If Harris were to lose in Nevada, she could then only afford to lose Michigan or Wisconsin, while a loss in Pennsylvania would allow Trump to pass 270. We don’t think there is any reasonable scenario leading to a 269-269 tie.