Joe Biden decided to drop out of the presidential race in a letter released Sunday afternoon. Biden thanked the nation, acknowledged his poor performance in the past few months, and endorsed his vice president as his successor. That vice president, Kamala Harris, has already begun to rack up endorsements and start her campaign against Donald Trump. Republicans were just as blindsided by the move as Democrats and have been slow to turn their gears towards running a full-fledged campaign against Harris.
A Tough Decision
Much of the commentary about Biden’s move has framed it as inevitable. After all, Biden had proven his unfitness for office in front of millions of Americans. He went through months of effort to schedule an early debate only to utterly fail once that debate occurred. Biden followed up that weak performance with several more speeches and interviews where he sounded more coherent but still did not inspire confidence among his supporters. Many of the party’s donors had begun to withhold funds, and party leaders had started calling for him to step down.
But this decision has never been easy for presidents in the past. In reality, no amount of polling or party pressure can keep a president from running for reelection. An incumbent president is likely to win their party’s nomination despite the circumstances, and in a closely polarized country there is always a substantial chance that they will win. They have to make the choice to give up any hope of extending their time as the world’s most powerful person, a choice that takes courage and a belief in something other than one’s own ego.
Every decision in the past to drop out has been framed as inevitable. Presidents who drop out were often older, unpopular, or unable to hold together their governing coalition. But this framing belies the many reasons past presidents could have cited to stay in office. George Washington, the most important precedent in American history for a two-term presidency, could have easily stayed for three terms. A twelve-year reign would not have meant the end of the American republic; several British prime ministers either had or were in the middle of longer terms, and FDR’s twelve-year presidency in the 1930s and 1940s did not end the power of Congress. But Washington wanted to pass the torch and restrict the American presidency as much as he could. His decision ended up influencing centuries of future presidents and the 22nd Amendment which restricts them to this day.
An unprecedented choice
The 20th century precedents for Biden’s decision also had potential offramps. It is true that Harry Truman was incredibly unpopular in 1952 and actually lost the New Hampshire primary that year. But the primary system was much less influential then than it is today. Truman still had goodwill from his seven years in office and could have marshalled his forces to capture the nomination, even if he would have likely lost in a landslide. The same was true for Lyndon Johnson, who won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 and would have been able to corral his delegates to victory.
For every bold presidential decision, there are a number of examples of presidents facing humiliation for their refusal to step aside. There are several presidents who lost their reelection bids by massive and predictable margins. Martin Van Buren and Herbert Hoover were both remembered as punchlines for their questionable decisions to run in the face of economic depression. But other presidents were outright rejected by their parties before they could even reach the general election. John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, and Franklin Pierce all failed to secure their second nominations, with Tyler being unceremoniously expelled from the Whig Party for various heresies. While he is remembered fondly today, Ulysses S. Grant was unable to secure a third nomination as president because of the failures of his second term.
Joe Biden certainly could have stayed in the race. He was not down by double-digits in polling. He could have rallied at the Democratic National Convention and likely crawled back to within a few points at the next debate. But he chose to step aside and give someone with better polling a shot at stopping a second Trump term. For this action, he will be remembered well by historians of the American presidency.