Since suffrage has been allowed to more and more groups, much has been made of demographics in politics. Politicians make play for minorities and other special interest groups, whilst taking advantage of those they believe to be loyal to their cause.
These demographics will be crucial during the upcoming election
Men
There are slightly fewer men than women in the United States, and more women than men have voted in presidential elections since 1980. As a rule, men tend to be more conservative than women. According to recent data, they have not shifted too much either way, but are more likely to consider themselves moderate or conservative.
Male voters trended 53% for Trump in 2020. Married men went further at 55% but unmarried men went 52% for Biden. White men favoured Trump by 61%, with minority men going for Biden- though not as much as minority women. White men both college educated and not also went for him.
Men make up the vast majority of elected federal politicians, though the number of women is creeping up. The 118th Congress is 72% male. The Republican Party is 84% and the Democratic is 59%.
In 2024, it’s likely men will once again go for the Republican Party.
Women
There are more female voters than male voters in the US, and women are actually more likely to take up the vote. The Nineteenth Amendment in 1920 enfranchised women, but it took a while for them to equal the number of men voting. The aforementioned date shows women becoming increasingly liberal- great for the Dems, but not so great for the GOP.
Women as a whole went for Joe Biden by 57% in 2020. White women and married women tended to trend more conservatively at 55% and 63%. White women with college degrees went 54% for Biden, compared to 36% without. In 2016, female candidate Hillary Clinton got 54% of women.
Despite historically being excluded from politics, women have been gaining a lot of ground. The current Vice President is a woman, have become Speaker of the House, Minority Leader in the House, lead a ticket, been on a ticket and Senate President pro tempore among others. They make up 28% of Congress, a record high.
In 2024, women may go for Biden, but it’ll be far from an easy win for him.
White
White Americans make up the majority of the US electorate.
In 2020, they went 58% for Trump. Whites of all age groups voted for him, as well as all but white female college educated voters.
In 2024, they will likely swing for Trump again.
African-American
African-Americans first saw some enfranchisement following the US Civil War, though this was limited to some men. It was not until the 1965 Voting Rights Act that it became a more widespread thing.
Traditionally, African-Americans tended to vote Republican, but they’ve swung Democrat since about the FDR era. They’re a traditionally extremely reliable voting block for the Democrats, despite one poll showing 14% considering themselves conservative.
African-American voters swung heavily for Biden in 2020 at 87%. That number was 79% for men and a whopping 90% for African-American women. In 2016, slightly more African-Americans went for Hillary Clinton, but Trump did better than AA men than in 2020. 95% and 94% of African-Americans went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 respectively.
The first African-American in either House was Hiram R. Revels in 1870. The change was slow, but more started to rise up the ranks. Adam Clayton Powell Jr. and Shirley Chisholm were two such prominent examples in the 20th century. Barack Obama became the first African-American president after being elected in 2008. Kamala Harris is also African-American. There are currently 58 African-American Representatives and four Senators.
Despite the majority of African-American politicians and voters being Democratic, some Republicans include Tim Scott, Condoleezza Rice, Burgess Owens and John James.
In 2024, African-Americans will certainly swing Democrat, but they are by no means a monolithic bloc.
Asian-American
- Tend to vote Democrat
- Mixture- Chinese, Indian etc are Dem, but Vietnamese are GOP
- Majority naturalised and educated
- Those who lived longer in the US are GOP
- Notables: Tammy Duckworth, Vivek Ramaswamy and Pramila Jayapal
- Groups: Southeast Asia Resource Action Center, Asian American Center of Frederick and Japanese American Citizens League
The Asian-American vote encompasses a lot of different ethnicities and nationalities. Groups can be as diverse as Chinese-Americans, Indian-Americans, Japanese-Americans and Filipino-Americans among others. The majority of Asian-American voters are naturalised and better educated than others.
The vast majority of Asian-Americans are Democrat, with the exception of the Vietnamese-Americans who swing GOP. Those who have lived in the US longer tend to swing to the Republicans too.
In 2020, Asian-Americans went 63% in favour of Biden.
Asian-Americans are prominent in political life. Examples on the left include Tammy Duckworth, Pramila Jayapal, Mazie Hirono and Ted Lieu. Examples on the right include Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Young Kim and Michelle Steel. Kamala Harris is also part Asian-American.
In 2024, it’s another likely swing for Biden.
Hispanic/Latino
Hispanic and Latino voters are one of the fastest growing voting blocks in the United States. They make up one in seven voters, nearly double the amount since 2000. They also suffer from low turnout.
The vast majority of Latinos and Hispanics are Democratic, but that can depend on ethnic and national lines. 58% of Cuban Americans classed themselves as GOP in 2020, along with 55% of Dominican-Americans. This contrasted with 44% of Mexican-Americans and 46% of Puerto Ricans. Hispanic voters in the key swing state of Florida are also leaning red, as evidenced by their vote in Miami Dade during the 2022 midterms and Ron DeSantis gaining 58% of Latinos in that year.
In 2020, Latinos and Hispanics went 65% for Biden. The number was 59% for Latino men and a higher 69% for Latina women.
Latinos and Hispanics are also very prominent in politics. Examples on the left include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Catherine Cortez Masto and Bob Menendez. Examples on the right include Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and George Santos.
Latinos and Hispanics will likely still go for the Democrats, but a shift may be coming.
Native American
Native Americans have a long and rich history in the United States, but they’ve not always been engaged in politics, through force or through choice. They have a historically low turnout as they place more faith in tribal leaders than federal politics, but more are choosing to vote.
Native Americans lean Democratic but are not as monolithic as other ethnic and minority groups. Views may also be based on the tribe.
Their participation in elected politics is low, but prominent politicians of Native ethnicity include Deb Haaland, Markwayne Mullin and Mary Peltola. Charles Curtis, vice president to Calvin Coolidge, was a Native American from the Kaw Nation.
The Native American vote will likely lean Democratic in 2024.
Christians (non-Catholic and Mormon)
Christianity is the major religion of the United States, with Protestants the majority. There are numerous denominations, such as Methodists, Baptists and Presbyterian, along with numerous churches.
Those who attend church more regularly- once or more a week- tend to be Republican. Protestants and other non-Catholics went 60% for Trump. White Evangelicals and born-again Christians went 76% for him. Denominations tend to vary in religion, with Evangelical groups leaning to the right and Mainline groups either moderate or slightly more to the left.
Protestants make up the majority of Congress. Denominations represented include Baptists, Methodists, Presybertians, Episcopalians, Lutherans, Restorationists, Reformed, Adventists and Congregationalists, Pentecostals, Holinesses and Quakers.
Non-Catholic and Mormon Christians will go red in 2024.
Catholics
Catholics were discriminated against and distrusted throughout most of American history. John F. Kennedy had to prove himself when running for the presidency. Since then, Catholics have occupied a large place in American politics. They are the largest non-Protestant religious group in the United States. Catholics are mostly found in the Northeast, particularly Boston, and major cities.
As a rule, Catholics in America tend to be a little more liberal than across the globe, especially on issues such as abortion. They’re very slightly more left-leaning in politics, though this may depend on whether they’re white or non-Hispanic or how often they attend Mass. Catholics went 52% in favour of Joe Biden in 2020.
Catholics are well-represented in politics. Catholics in the Democratic Party include Nancy Pelosi, Tim Kaine and Joe Biden. Those in the Republican Party include Ron DeSantis, Susan Collins and Steve Scalise.
Catholics will likely go slightly for Biden in 2024.
Mormons
Mormons, officially the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-Day Saints, have come a long way since Joseph Smith and the violence of the 19th century. Whilst they remain somewhat on the fringe of politics and society, Mormons have become an essential voting bloc. They are centred in Utah.
Mormons are one of the most Republican demographics, though some in the younger generation may be slightly more liberal. They tend to be socially conservative and have larger families. 59% voted for Trump in 2020.
All Mormons in Congress are Republican, with the majority being from Utah. The most famous of these is former presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Some recent Mormon Democrats include Ben McAdams, Jim Matheson and Tom Udall.
Mormons will likely vote for Trump in 2024.
Jewish
- Tend to be Democrat
- Israel issue
- Orthodox tend to be Republican
- Socially liberal
- Notables: Jon Ossoff, Chuck Schumer and Elissa Slotkin
- Groups: American Jewish Congress, Jewish Policy Center and Jewish Council for Public Affairs
Jewish people have long been part of American life. They tended to be excluded from society due to anti-Semitic views, but enjoyed success in politics. The first Jewish Congressman was Lewis Charles Levin in 1845; he was interestingly ardently anti-Catholic. Jews are concentrated mainly in the Northeast, especially New York, and Florida and California.
Jews are generally very in favour of the Democrats. 76% voted for Biden in 2020. All but two Jewish members of Congress are Democratic, they include Bernie Sanders, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Chuck Schuman. The Republicans are Max Miller and David Kustoff. Other conservative Republicans include Ben Shapiro and Lee Zeldin.
The Jewish vote will likely be Democratic in 2024, though some believe that the issues surrounding the response to Israel and Palestine may impact this.
Muslims
Muslims do not have the same numbers as Christians and Jews in America, but are nevertheless a notable minority. The city of Dearborn, Michigan is an important hub of Islam in the United States.
Throughout a lot of American history, Muslims tended to vote Republican due to their social conservatism. This changed following 9/11, as the responses to it and the changing sentiments saw them lean Democratic. Votes also may come on ethnic lines, as Muslims in America are an incredibly diverse group. The 2022 midterms saw 28% of Muslim voters go for the Republicans, an eleven percent increase from four years earlier.
All Muslims in Congress are Democrats, notable members being Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and André Carson. Conservative Muslims include Saba Ahmed.
The Muslim vote is probably going to be reliably Democratic again in 2024, but many are unhappy with how Joe Biden is handling Israel and Palestine, so some may stay at home, vote third party or even go for Donald Trump.
Hindus
Hindus are the fourth largest religious group after Christians, Jews and Muslims. They came in larger numbers following the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which removed discrimination of certain ethnic groups. Hindus are much better educated than the general electorate, and the vast majority are immigrants. There are also a number of converts.
Hindus lean Democrat, having gone 79% for Biden in 2020. That being said, there has been a somewhat rightward shift in their presidential choices over the years. There are two Hindu representatives at the moment- Raja Krishnanmoorthi and Ro Khanna. Conservative Hindus include Shalabh Kumar and Vivek Ramaswamy.
It looks like Hindus will remain Democratic in 2024.
Buddhists
Buddhism is the fifth largest religion in the United States. Many of his adherents are Asian, but it is somewhat stereotyped as a religion for spiritual white people and celebrities to convert to. The state with the largest number of Buddhists is Hawaii, with California coming in second. Over 10% of residents of the Northern Mariana Islands are Buddhist.
Buddhists lean Democratic. There is currently one Buddhist in the Senate- Mazie Hirono of Hawaii and one in the House- Hank Johnson. Buddhists went 74% for Biden in 2020.
It’s another demographic for Biden in 2024.
Atheists/Agnostics
Atheists and agnostics have been part of America since its inception, though they’ve had to hide their views in the deeply religious society. Even today, atheists and agnostics are a distrusted group. One 2016 poll showed that they were the most disliked minority group.
Non-religious voters went 65% for Biden in 2020.
Irreligious people in America are liberal and Democratic leaning for the most part. The first openly irreligious member of Congress was Pete Stark of California. All openly irreligious politicians across the board in the United States are either Democratic or left-leaning independents. The only one currently in Congress is Kyrsten Sinema. Some conservative atheists and agnostics include Austin Petersen and S.E. Cupp.
It’s another demographic that will go for Biden in 2024.
LGBT
LGBT people are the final demographic of this piece. They have existed since probably the foundation of America, but societal dislike, hate and even illegality has kept them out of open participation. America has become more tolerant of homosexuality in the past few decades, though the trans issue remains controversial.
LGBT Americans tend to vote Democrat, as they are more liberal on the subject. They went 75% for Biden in 2020.
All LGBT members of the current Congress are Democrats. They include Laphonza Butler, Mark Takano and Eric Sorensen. Several previous LGBT members did not come out in their lifetime or tenure, the first openly gay member of Congress was Republican Robert Bauman. Democrat Gerry Studds was slightly earlier, but he had been forcibly outed.
Despite many members of the community associating with the Democratic Party, there are a number of LGBT Republicans and conservatives. They include George Santos, Dave Rubin and Guy Benson.
The LGBT community remains a strongly Democratic column in the 2024 election.