The first debate performance was one of the most extraordinary in the history of presidential debates. It was the only two-hour stretch that may have doomed an incumbent candidate. Joe Biden had already blown up the long-established debate format in order to have an earlier chance to debate the former president. Once he got the opportunity to debate his opponent, Biden almost completely folded. He appeared weak and confused the entire debate, proving himself unable to put up much of a defense against his opponent. By Friday evening, nearly every influential pundit and a host of newspapers had begun to call for him to drop out from the race.
It remains to be seen how Biden will respond to the growing calls for him to step aside. Biden has a few weeks weeks to make a decision before the Democratic National Convention. He may very well step aside and make way for a successor. But his decision will depend on two factors that will help to sway the president’s determination of his chances in November.
Trump won, but by how much?
The first of these factors was the lackluster debate performance that Biden’s opponent did not turn in a stellar performance himself. Few of the critics of Biden’s performance necessarily praised Trump for his. Indeed, a substantial minority of the audience saw the debate as a draw. Viewers saw both candidates as old and out-of-touch with the nation’s problems. Outside of Trump’s most devoted followers, most swing voters likely did not come away from the debate with a glowing view of the former president’s political abilities. As noted by FiveThirtyEight in a post-debate piece, “Trump’s support, meanwhile, barely budged, perhaps a reflection of the fact that, while Biden performed poorly on Thursday night, voters weren’t especially impressed with Trump’s performance either.” Trump’s failures have the potential to keep Biden in the race, for he knows that a certain number of swing voters will support him to keep his dangerous and incompetent predecessor out of the White House.
The second, related factor is polling. Most observers were shocked when the first polls showed Biden actually gaining a minuscule amount of ground. Given the universal reaction of pundits after the debate, an observer would have expected Biden’s support to have cratered. The general shrug in initial polling provided Biden supporters with his only path forward. Some believe that Biden’s age and frailty has already been baked into his disapproval numbers. According to this theory, Biden can weather the storm, have a triumphant convention, and then put all concerns to rest with a more successful debate performance in September.
The reality of Biden’s decision to stay in the race is that it is his to make. The Democratic Party cannot tear itself apart to try and replace him. Primary season is long over and all of the delegates at the convention will be Biden loyalists to some degree. Instead, Biden must think of the good of the country as well as his ability to defeat Trump in November. If his polling stays competitive and Trump continues to underwhelm in public, the choice between staying or leaving may become much more difficult.