In a shocking upset, Canada’s Conservative Party has flipped the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding in a by-election. This upset victory is already being cited as another sign that the incumbent Liberal government is set to fall at the next general election. But what is this riding, and why is the result so important?
History and by-election
Toronto-St. Paul’s is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. Located in Midtown Toronto, the district has been represented by the Liberal Party since 1993, when it flipped amidst a national Liberal landslide. Liberal candidates carried it by double-digit margins in every election since, with the exception of the 2011 election, where incumbent Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett won with 40.6% of the vote. Its electorate is wealthier than average and contains one of the largest Jewish populations in Canada. Most of the district are renters, and housing costs were a major issue during the campaign.
The Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election was triggered by Bennett’s resignation in January. With Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party holding a consistent double-digit polling lead over the Liberals, it was expected that this by-election might be closer than usual. While neither party expected the riding to flip, Liberals went all-out in defense of the seat, sending cabinet ministers to knock doors across the riding. The Conservatives hoped to narrow the margin, but publicly downplayed their chances of victory.
The result and fallout
With all the votes counted, Conservative Don Stewart won the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election with a majority of 590 votes over Liberal Leslie Church. Stewart secured 42.1% of the vote, while Church received 40.5%. NDP candidate Amrit Parhar finished third with 10.9% of the vote, and Christian Cullis of the Green Party received 2.9%. Stewart’s victory is the first for a Conservative in Toronto since 2011.
The Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election result is a bad omen for the Liberal Party ahead of next year’s general election. Party leader and PM Justin Trudeau may face pressure to resign after 11 years of leadership. Media analyst Nik Nanos said the result means that “every Liberal riding is in play.” And the Conservative Party, already leading in the polls by wide margins, appears set to sweep Trudeau’s Liberals out of power.