Last night, Ohio held a special election in the 6th congressional district. Entering the night, the district wasn’t on the radar of any major election forecaster. However, against expectations, Democrat Michael Kripchak held Republican Michael Rulli, a state senator, to a margin of victory of less than 10 percentage points. Given the district’s electoral lean – Donald Trump carried the seat by nearly 30 points in 2020 – this result has come as a major surprise.
However, when considering all the factors involved, it might not actually be that surprising. While Ohio’s 6th district is indeed a Republican stronghold, there’s a few factors that made it uniquely suited to an unusual result.
No district in the country has bolted further right
Since 2008, Ohio’s 6th congressional district has seen the sharpest trend to the right of any district in the country. In 2008, Barack Obama carried the seat by a margin of nearly eight percentage points – not only to the left of Ohio, which he carried by 4.7%, but also to the left of his national margin of 7.2%. This margin shrunk to 3.4% in 2012 – to the right of his national margin, but still to the left of Ohio.
Everything changed in 2016. Donald Trump carried the seat by a margin of nearly 25 percentage points, and he increased his total to 29% in 2020. It is one of only 16 congressional districts to have voted twice for Obama, and twice for Trump. This sudden and dramatic shift can be attributed in large part to demographics: the seat is incredibly white and has a low educational attainment rate. According to Daily Kos Elections, it ranks tenth nationally in percentage of non-college educated whites (72.5%) and 421st out of 435 districts in percentage of college-educated voters (18.8%).
Low turnout can lead to unusual results
The voters that Trump won over in much of rural America, and districts like Ohio’s 6th, can be defined as low-propensity voters. While they vote reliably for Trump – and most other Republicans – in federal years, they turn out less often for other races. The Democratic coalition, meanwhile, is absorbing more high-propensity voters, who tend to vote in every election they can.
Because of this, special elections – already low-turnout races – are increasingly becoming ones where Democrats perform well. As an example, Democrats nearly carried New York’s strongly conservative 23rd congressional district in an August 2022 special election, in large part due to exceptional Democratic turnout in college-educated Tompkins County.
Current polls indicate a favorable environment for Republicans, with Trump leading the 538 average by 1.1%. However, special elections so far this year suggest a D+3 national environment, according to election analyst Ethan Chen.
Turnout for the Ohio 6th district special election was very low. With nearly all votes in, only around 60,000 voters showed up for the special election. For comparison, over 280,000 people voted in the district in the 2022 midterms.
Democrats trimmed margins in key counties
| County | 2008 Margin | 2020 Margin | 2024 margin |
| Carroll | McCain+4.8% | Trump+52.7% | Rulli+34.7% |
| Columbiana | McCain+7.6% | Trump+44.9% | Rulli+30.8% |
| Harrison | McCain+2.4% | Trump+52.6% | Rulli+28.4% |
| Noble | Obama+0.2% | Trump+38.4% | Rulli+27.5% |
| Monroe | Obama+2.7% | Trump+43.6% | Rulli+19.3% |
| Belmont | McCain+15.7% | Trump+62.6% | Rulli+16.7% |
| Jefferson | Obama+9% | Trump+53.9% | Rulli+14.3% |
| Washington | McCain+15.5% | Trump+40.7% | Rulli+5.3% |
| Stark | Obama+4.9% | Trump+30.8% | Rulli+4.0% |
| Mahoning | Obama+26.7% | Trump+1.9% | Kripchak+0.1% |
| Tuscarawas | Obama+8.2% | Trump+32.8% | Kripchak+12.9% |
| Total | Obama+7.7% | Trump+28.7% | Rulli+9.5% |
It wasn’t all turnout that mattered, however. To some degree, voters in districts like Ohio’s 6th can be willing to split tickets. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown nearly carried the district in his 2018 re-election campaign, only losing by three points; even in 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan ran several points ahead of Biden in the seat.
In the Ohio 6th district special election, Democrats managed to carry two counties that Trump won – Tuscarawas and Mahoning. Both of these voted for Obama in 2008, although Trump carried the Tuscarawas portion by far more than Mahoning. Kripchak ran ahead of Biden by massive margins in almost every county, with most swinging to the left by at least 20 points.
On the Republican side, Rulli actually ran behind McCain in Washington County, a historically Republican county relative to the rest of the district; it hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1964. He did, however, do relatively fine in the portion of the district containing his state senate seat. The Mahoning performance is actually a big outlier here, with Rulli holding up genuinely well for a downballot race, only running behind Trump by a few points.
Does this race mean anything for the future?
No – it probably won’t. While Rulli and Kripchak are set for a rematch in November, in a higher-turnout environment, we don’t expect this seat to be close. We have it as Safe Republican, and we expect Trump to carry it by margins similar to 2016 or 2020.
However, this result might bode poorly for Republicans in another upcoming special. On June 25, Colorado’s 4th district – a Trump+19 district – is set to hold a special election. The Republican nominee, Greg Lopez, won’t be on the ballot in November. If Democrats were to replicate the Ohio swing in Colorado, they’d carry the district. On paper, this isn’t likely. However, Lopez is a subpar nominee, and the district is sharply divided between suburban, Democratic-trending Douglas County and the rural outlying counties. It’s very possible Democrats may overperform in this race as well.