Tomorrow, Maryland voters will have the opportunity to vote in a Senate primary that has proven to be one of the most contentious in the nation. The Democratic stronghold faces a rare prospect – a Senate race with the national spotlight – due to the entry of wildly popular former Governor Larry Hogan, a Republican.
On the Democratic side, voters will have the choice between Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. With the prospect of a competitive Senate race on the horizon, Democratic primary voters have an important choice to make.
Hogan’s entry changed the race
Hogan’s entry into the race was well-timed, preventing any other major candidates from entering the race. All public polls have shown Hogan with decisive leads among a field of nobodies and perennial candidates. Barring an absolute, unforeseen shock, Hogan will be the Republican nominee for Senate.
This means that, for the first time since 2006, Republicans have a credible Senate nominee. And Hogan is certainly more than just credible – he’s one of the most popular Governors in recent history. Polling indicates that even a majority of Maryland Democrats have a favorable opinion of him.
Popular wisdom suggests that, if there’s a candidate who could make Maryland competitive, it’s Hogan. There’s simply no other Republican candidate like him.
Despite polling, Alsobrooks might be the better nominee
Although one might suspect that the more moderate Trone would have a better chance against Hogan, I actually believe Alsobrooks would be the stronger candidate. Despite having one of the largest Black populations in the country, Maryland has never elected a Black candidate to the Senate. Instead, a series of White Senators like Paul Sarbanes and Barbara Mikulski held a stranglehold on the Senate for decades.
Most recently, White Democrats won primaries for open seats in 2006 and 2016 against Black Democrats. The 2006 primary was contentious enough that some Black Democrats opted to endorse Republican Michael Steele – a Black Republican – over Democrat Ben Cardin. Steele ended up losing by 10 percentage points, but he ran well ahead of George W. Bush’s margins in majority-Black Prince George’s County and Baltimore despite a Democratic wave.
All of this is to say that, if Alsobrooks is the nominee, Black Democrats and Black voters will be especially motivated to turn out. Trone could potentially serve for several decades, rendering this a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Black voters.
Polling shows a tightening primary
Out of 12 public polls for the Maryland Senate primary, Trone has led in 11 of them. However, the most recent polls have both shown a narrowing race, and Alsobrooks led the most recent poll. Trone’s campaign has lost traction, possibly due to his usage of a racial slur at a congressional hearing. Since then, state Democratic endorsements – especially from Black Democrats – have trended towards Alsobrooks. But the federal Democratic establishment, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, are backing Trone.
For his part, Trone has argued the more liberal Alsobrooks would be an ineffective Senator due to her inexperience, and would be less likely to win. Trone has also aggressively targeted her for taking campaign donations from pharmaceutical and oil companies.
Either candidate is favored over Hogan
In March, I wrote an article explaining why Elections Daily is keeping this race at Safe Democratic. I stand by this article; regardless of the result of the Maryland Senate primary, we’re not moving the general election. Since that article was published, two credible polls from Public Policy Polling and Emerson College have shown both Alsobrooks and Trone with nearly identical double-digit leads over Hogan.
This shouldn’t be a surprise. Maryland is an extremely Democratic state, and even a double-digit overperformance from Hogan wouldn’t be enough to flip it. The real question is whether Hogan can run close enough to warrant spending in the state. Trone – one of the wealthiest members of Congress – has pledged to spend tens of millions of dollars of his own money in the general if necessary. Alsobrooks, in contrast, would likely rely more heavily on outside spending. However, if polling continues to show double-digit leads for Democrats, it’s unlikely they’d be inclined to spend money at all.