With the NRSC staying neutral, and Chairman Steve Daines declaring that “[the Republicans] have three candidates… [who] could win the general election“, the Republican Primary to take on three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has gone under the radar for most of the cycle. Yet, within a matter of days, it has become one of the most fascinating contests to watch.
Timeline
When State Sen. Matt Dolan declared his candidacy in January 2023, most political observers did not expect him to have much of a chance of winning the primary. Dolan, who got a respectable 23% of the vote in the chaotic multicandidate 2022 Republican Senate Primary, had positioned himself sole major “post-Trump” conservative in the race. In a primary electorate that still adored the former President, it seemed like quite an uphill battle for him to be viable.
Businessman Bernie Moreno was the next to declare his candidacy in April. With strong ties to Trumpworld and the father-in-law of US Representative Max Miller, it immediately seemed like he’d be on an inside track to a hugely valuable Trump endorsement. However, early data in the race showed Moreno polling in single digits, and as Trump remained neutral, it seemed like a huge opportunity was being left on the table for ambitious Ohio politicians who wanted a six-year tour to the United States Senate.
That ambitious Ohio politician was Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who launched a long-awaited primary campaign in July 2023. As the twice-elected Secretary of State and the sole statewide office holder in the primary, LaRose quickly surged into a lead in polling thanks to strong name recognition and the perception that he’d be a “bridge” connecting the old-guard Republican Party with the new, Trumpist GOP.
LaRose seemed to be on a glide path to take on Brown until Trump threw himself into the race in December. Bernie Moreno received the coveted endorsement and it immediately shook up the primary. Emerson College, which found LaRose leading with 18% to Moreno’s 10% in November, recorded Moreno surging to 22% against LaRose’s 21% in January.
LaRose wasn’t helping himself out either. He made a high-profile bet by tying himself to two abortion-related measured in August and November, both of which were rejected by Ohio voters in a landslide. It also didn’t help that he wasn’t pleasing anyone by appeasing Trump at every turn after initially declaring that Trump’s endorsement was “overstated“. LaRose is also by far the worst fundraiser of the crew. As of 2/28/2024, LaRose has only raised $2.2 million for his US Senate campaign despite being the only statewide elected official in the race. On contrast, self-funders Dolan and Moreno have raised $11.4 million and $9.7 million, respectively.
With polling showing LaRose on the decline, it seemed like the primary was over in all but name. With the Trump endorsement and a huge campaign account, Moreno would bombard the airwaves with the Trump endorsement news and seal the deal. Dolan’s type of campaign has a solid ceiling in the new Republican Party, and LaRose’s campaign would need a miracle to come back, especially on the campaign finance front.
Matt Dolan Surges Late… Again
While everyone was paying attention to the Presidential primary contest, Matt Dolan was starting to make his move. The Cook Political Report noted that the Dolan campaign was relentless on the airwaves as the Moreno campaign “took their foot off the gas pedal” after the initial wave of momentum in late December and early January following the Trump endorsement. Folks started to raise eyebrows when a Survey USA poll showed Dolan just two points behind Moreno and LaRose in third, but many dismissed it as an outlier.
But the calvary for Dolan was coming. Former Senator Rob Portman endorsed Dolan in early March, and, after initially stating he’d stay neutral, Governor Mike DeWine also endorsed Dolan in the Senate primary, stating that he believed Dolan was the most electable candidate of the three. Another Emerson College poll was released showing Dolan surging into the lead. All of a sudden, the biggest underdog in the race had become a frontrunner.
People who followed the 2022 Ohio Senate race may sense a familiar pattern. In that race, a little-known State Senator by the name of Matt Dolan rose from 7% in March to become one of the frontrunners by primary night on May 3rd. Dolan leveraged media coverage highlighting his unique stance as the sole prominent candidate to openly acknowledge Biden’s victory in a heavily Trump-aligned field. This approach effectively unified Republican primary voters who harbored reservations about Trump’s leadership within the party. Unfourantely for Dolan, JD Vance, off from a fresh endorsement from Trump in early April, had momentum of his own and broke through to win the primary with 32% of the vote. Dolan’s momentum carried him to 23% and third place, just behind 2nd-place finisher, former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who received 24%.
The 2024 version of “Dolanmentum” is a bit different than the first version, in that this time, it seems like “Dolanmentum 2.0” has capitulated him into at least co-favorite status with Moreno. In 2022, while Dolan had some late momentum, he was never in the lead, and it seemed like Vance was always the favorite to win. Dolan also has a lot more institutional support this time, as evidenced by the endorsements of DeWine and Portman. My aggregate of the polling in the race has Dolan barely ahead with 28%, with Moreno second with 27%, and LaRose lagging behind with 20%.
Late “Scandal” Threatens Moreno, but Democrats and Trump unite to push him over the line
To add to the drama, there was a bizarre story released Thursday night by the Associated Press detailing an account on a casual sexual encounters website called Adult Friend Finder made under Moreno’s name. The Moreno campaign has claimed that the account was made as a prank by a staffer, and co-founder Andrew Conru seems to agree, but this was not a story the Moreno campaign wanted running on the headlines of news stories one week before the primary.
Both Democrats, who see Moreno as the weakest nominee in the general election, and Trump, with his reputation as Republican primary kingmaker on the line, have sensed the urgency and stakes in this once-ignored primary contest. Under the Schumer-supported Duty and Country PAC, Democrats have already spent more than $3 million on “negative ads” intended to boost Moreno’s right-wing credentials and Trump endorsement. Trump is holding a rally on March 16th for Moreno in an attempt to give Moreno the last-minute momentum needed to move past Dolan.
Paths to Victory for Each Candidate
For Matt Dolan, the on-paper polling favorite, the path to victory is straightforward. Run it up in the “Three Cs” in Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland, and win in upscale suburban counties such as Delaware and his home area in the Cleveland Metro. Not getting blown out in the rural areas like he did in 2022 and receiving a respectable 15-25% of the vote there is also key to his path to victory. The good news for Dolan is that this year’s early voting volume is much higher than 2022, likely due to the presence of the Presidential primary, and if election day voting is down now that Trump has the nomination sowed up, Dolan’s likely early voting lead will be too much for his opponents to overcome (a Survey USA poll found Dolan receiving majority support from voters who have already cast a ballot).
Bernie Moreno’s path is centered around one word (or man): Trump. His own campaign has been lackluster, with no clear policy planks on his website, and some reports suggest he has been outgunned by Dolan by a margin of 2:1 in advertisements. But Donald Trump wields immense influence on the Republican Party, with his endorsements rarely failing in Republican Primaries. Will this be an exception? Can Moreno, or Trump, rather, turn out voters on election day without a competitive Presidential primary? Will low-propensity Appalachian voters come out and vote for the Trump-backed candidate in big numbers?
Frank LaRose’s path to victory is quite complicated at this point, but given the large amount of undecided voters in this contest, the path isn’t entirely foreclosed. He likely has to rely on stanchly religious voters in Western Ohio (who may have favorable memories of LaRose’s strong support of Issue 1) and his political base in Akron to deliver him big margins, along with generally respectable vote shares in both urban areas and rural areas across the state. LaRose is either hoping for a big polling error or undecided voters choosing the known quantity on election night: the man they elected as Secretary of State twice.
“Momentum” is key in every election, and Matt Dolan is on the right polling trajectory with just days before the primary. If we’re simply predicting based off of the data and political theory, Dolan should be classified as the favorite. However, with Trump’s influence looming large, Moreno still has a shot at reversing this momentum in the final days and winning this primary, and we should never underestimate a Trump endorsement in a Republican primary. Regardless of the outcome, the explosive March campaign has successfully drawn the attention of political observers in what has evolved to be perhaps the only truly competitive Republican primary for US Senate this cycle. But it is a crucial one. Beyond the storyline of LaRose’s “inevitability” to Moreno’s coronation to a two-candidate dogfight, a US Senate seat, and perhaps control of the upper chamber, is on the line.