Site icon Elections Daily

Home State Advantage in Presidential Elections

  • Sarah Stook

    • 8/3/1981 President making a statement to the press regarding the air traffic controllers strike PATCO in rose garden

    In American politics, there is such a thing as “favorite son” status. This usually applies to delegates at conventions nominating a politician from their state. Nowadays, it’s usually related to a politician simply being from the state itself.

    In sports, some argue that home advantage exists. Does such a thing exist when someone is up for federal election? Does being from a state help your performance, whether it’s already safe or a swing? Let’s find out. 

    1960

    John F. Kennedy won the Massachusetts primary handily at 91,607 votes, with the combination of others being around 7,400. Kennedy was the main contender with no real competition at this stage. 

    Richard Nixon essentially ran uncontested in the primaries, thus allowing him a perfect run in California. 

    Meanwhile, in the election, both men won their home states. Massachusetts at this point was somewhat of a swing state, but had gone to the popular Eisenhower twice in the last consecutive elections. Kennedy did manage to take the state back for the Democrats, at a higher percentage than FDR and Truman had. It was undoubtedly Kennedy’s status as a Massachusetts man born and bred helped, as well as the large numbers of Catholic voters in the state.

    Like Massachusetts, California had been red for Eisenhower but blue for FDR and Truman. Interestingly, Nixon actually got less of the vote than his boss did. It was also the closest state he’d won. 

    1964

    Neither Lyndon B. Johnson and Barry Goldwater had a primary in their own state. 

    Lyndon B. Johnson won Texas with 63.32% of the vote. This was an increase on JFK’s win four years previously. Whilst LBJ did win Texas comfortably, there were several other states that he won by a larger margin. He did better in Texas than in other southern states, but the Republican trend was clear.

    Arizona was one of only six states that Barry Goldwater won. The other five were also southern. It was also the state that Goldwater won by the lowest amount, so it likely tipped him over the edge. 

    1968

    Richard Nixon lost California in the primary to fellow Californian Ronald Reagan- probably helped by the latter being the Governor of California. 

    Hubert Humphrey did not contest the South Dakota primary, which Robert Kennedy won. He did, however, win the Minnesota primary.

    Nixon won California, but by an even smaller margin than in 1960. The Democrats did increase their vote share, whilst George Wallace ate into the votes of the major parties. 

    Humphrey lost his birth state of South Dakota, which would be Republican from 1940 onward with the exception of 1964. He did win Minnesota with over half of the vote. Nixon would win it the next year, whilst it was the only state Reagan lost in 1984 (albeit by only 3000 votes).  

    1972

    Nixon won the California primary, but was challenged by Congressman John Ashbrook. 

    McGovern won the South Dakota primary with 100% of the vote.

    Nixon won California with 55%, much better than in 1960 and in 1968. Considering he won 49 out of 50 states that year, it’s not unbelievable that his popularity would push him over the top in his home state.

    McGovern lost South Dakota, with Nixon also increasing his vote share from the previous election. He did, however, do better than previous Democrats, so favoured son status clearly helped him here. 

    1976

    Jimmy Carter won Georgia with 83.44% of the votes. At this point, he’d not yet gained an insurmountable lead, so others were still in the race.

    Gerald Ford lost Nebraska to future President Ronald Reagan, but won Michigan.

    Carter won Georgia by over 66%, a testament to his popularity. His status as a Southerner also allowed him to win the vast majority of the South, a voting bloc that was already starting to lean Republican.

    Ford won both Nebraska and Michigan with over half of the vote. 

    1980

    Ronald Reagan won both the Illinois and California primaries. 

    Jimmy Carter also won the Georgia primary, though he did have competition from Ted Kennedy despite being an incumbent. 

    Despite it being rather unbelievable today, Reagan won both Illinois and California, the latter by over half of the votes. 

    Carter won Georgia by over fifty percent, again unsurprising considering his relationship with this state. Apart from Bill Clinton’s 1992 win in Georgia, this would be the last time the Democrats won the state until 2020. 

    1984

    Ronald Reagan was essentially uncontested in the primaries, and won nearly 100% of the vote.

    Walter Mondale won Minnesota comfortably, with over 60% of the vote. 

    Reagan won 49 out of 50 states, and this included both Illinois and California. He improved on his previous outing in both states.

    Mondale won Minnesota by around 3,000 votes and a timid margin of 0.18%. The only other place he won was D.C- a place that had never gone Republican since it first voted. 

    1988

    George H. W. Bush won both the Massachusetts and Texas primaries, the latter by over 63% of the vote. Bush had previously won Massachusetts in 1980, but not Texas. 

    Michael Dukakis also won his Massachusetts primary comfortably. 

    George H.W. Bush lost the increasingly liberal Massachusetts but won Texas, a state that had become solidly red since the Johnson days. 

    Michael Dukakis won Massachusetts, though by a lower margin than later Democrats. 

    1992

    Young Bill Clinton won Arkansas with nearly 70% of the vote.

    George H.W. Bush won his primaries in Massachusetts and Texas, increasing his vote share once again. 

    Clinton won Arkansas, a state now considered staunchly Republican in federal elections. 

    Bush lost Massachusetts with a very low 29.02%, not helped by third-party Ross Perot’s nearly equal share of 22.74%. This was a historic low for the Republicans in the state, and they’ve only ever had higher percentages since. 

    1996

    Bill Clinton won the Arkansas primary again.

    Bob Dole won Kansas by over 60%, but he didn’t get as much of the vote there as he did in other states.

    Clinton won Arkansas by an increased margin than he previously did, though this would be the last time his state would vote Democrat, at the time of writing. 

    Dole won Kansas, though not as much as later Republicans would. 

    2000

    George W. Bush lost the Connecticut primary to 2008 candidate John McCain, but won Texas, the state where he was Governor.

    Al Gore won 95.50% of the D.C primary vote, and 92.13% of Tennessee’s. 

    Bush lost the increasingly liberal Connecticut, but handily won Texas. 

    Al Gore, like every other Democrat in every other election, won D.C very easily. He also lost Tennessee. Other Southern Democrats- LBJ, Carter and Clinton had managed to win Tennessee since 1952, but it seems that Gore having it as his home did not help. 

    2004

    George W. Bush won the primaries of Connecticut and Texas, both essentially unchallenged as a popular incumbent.

    John Kerry won both the Colorado and Massachusetts primaries against competition from eventual running mate John Edwards. 

    Bush lost Connecticut, though his result of 43.95% is pretty respectable compared to other Republican candidates. He won Texas by an increased margin.

    Kerry lost Colorado- an increasingly blue state nowadays, but won Massachusetts. 

    2008

    Barack Obama, despite facing tough primary competition from Hillary Clinton, won both Hawaii and Illinois’ primaries. Favoured son surely helped him in Illinois, a state which sees Chicago dominate its electoral landscape. This would be of the election at large.

    John McCain won the Arizona primary against competition from 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. 

    Obama won Hawaii, now a solid blue state, as well as Illinois.

    McCain won Arizona by a larger margin than George W. Bush did, but Mitt Romney would later increase it by 0.1%. 

    2012

    Obama won both the Hawaii and Illinois primaries, essentially unchallenged as a popular incumbent.

    Mitt Romney also won both the Michigan and Massachusetts primaries. His closest competition was Rick Santorum. 

    Obama won both Hawaii and Illinois once again, this time with deceased margins. 

    Romney lost both Michigan and Massachusetts. He would later go on to represent Utah as its Senator, adding a third state to his political ledger. 

    2016

    Donald Trump won the New York primary. The herd of candidates had thinned out by then, but Trump remained the favoured candidate against tighter competition. 

    Hillary Clinton also won Illinois and New York’s primaries. She had faced tight competition from left-wing populist Bernie Sanders, but he’d failed to match her. 

    Donald Trump lost New York, another state increasingly blue on the federal level.

    Hillary Clinton won both Illinois and New York, though by much lesser margins than predecessor Barack Obama. 

    2020

    Joe Biden won both Pennsylvania and Delaware’s primaries. The Democratic field was also heavy, but Biden managed to remain ahead.

    Trump also won New York and Florida. As an incumbent within his party, he was more or less uncontested. 

    Biden won both Delaware and Pennsylvania. The latter had gone to Trump by a very tight margin in 2016, but Biden managed to (just) turn it around. Delaware remains a fairly solid blue state.

    Donald Trump lost New York, but won the swing state of Florida. At the time of writing, it looks like Florida might have become a reliably red state. 

    At the end of the day, does home state advantage really exist? Simply put, it certainly helps. In cases like Barry Goldwater in 1964, it gives one the chance to just tip over the edge. Other factors are more important, however, including the popularity of the candidates and how reliable a state is in voting a certain way. If we see Trump and Biden as candidates once again- and it’s certainly looking that way- then we’ll see Blue Delaware and Red Florida once again. 

    Exit mobile version