Former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, a Republican, has announced an unexpected campaign for Senate, hoping to replace retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. The announcement came as the apparent fruit of efforts by Senate Minority Leader McConnell to bring Hogan into the race. Beltway Republicans are betting Hogan’s popularity in the state will be put to good use in the battle for the Senate majority.
Despite the “R” next to his name, Hogan left office as one of the country’s most popular governors, with an impressive 77% approval rating. Strikingly, he was approved by 81% of Maryland Democrats and 81% of Black Marylanders – surreal numbers for a Republican. Hogan is among the Republican Party’s most vocal opponents of former President Donald Trump. His tenure in office was defined by economic, environmental, and infrastructure-related matters, and he grew a reputation for a hands-off, cooperative governing style. Reflecting disdain for the Trump wing of his party, Hogan supported some liberal stances, including paid sick leave, and described himself as “as close as you can get to an Independent.”
Bipartisan credentials
As indicated in his campaign launch video, the former governor is placing his winning bipartisan brand front-and-center: “Fifty years ago, my father, Larry Hogan Sr., made a very tough decision: he became the first Republican congressman to come out for the impeachment of President Nixon, He put aside party politics and his own personal considerations, and he stepped up to do the right thing for Maryland and the nation. Today, Washington is completely broken, because that kind of leadership, that kind of willingness to put country over party, has become far too rare.”
The announcement is no doubt exciting for Maryland conservatives, who have been left in the dust in a state bluer than the Sargasso. But the latter point will make Hogan’s path to victory next-to-implausible. It is difficult to overstate just how Democratic Maryland really is. President Joe Biden won the state by a whopping 33 percentage points in 2020, and Republicans have not won a US Senate race there since 1980. Democrats have held supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly for over 50 years. The last Republican to win Maryland on the Presidential level was George H.W. Bush in 1988. If Maryland is bipartisan enough to keep a Republican governor for two terms, this is likely the furthest right it is willing to go.
Vulnerabilities
Hogan indeed broke through and demonstrated electoral strength in the Old Line State, driving up turnout in the conservative Eastern Shore and Panhandle regions, and winning largely suburban, and overwhelmingly Democratic, Baltimore County. A few things are worth noting, however. Four populous counties – Montgomery, Baltimore City, Charles, and Prince George’s – voted against Hogan in both his elections. The latter three are majority-Black, and Black voters will be paramount to Democratic turnout in 2024. And with Trump atop the ticket, Hogan’s party identification will likely come to hurt him even more than it would have otherwise.
Additionally, the national implications of a US Senate race present a firm obstacle. Democrats are centering their Senate messaging on support for abortion rights, an issue where Hogan is at strong odds with his former constituents. As governor, Hogan took a number of pro-life steps, including vetoing a bill that would have expanded access to the procedure, and withholding millions of dollars intended to increase the number of providers. Hogan did, however, regard the matter as “settled law” in Maryland, indicating a willingness to sidestep or downplay the issue’s relevance to voters. It seems likely that he will share a similar sentiment if asked about abortion in a Senate debate.
Marylanders overwhelmingly support abortion rights, by some of the strongest margins of any state in the country. Although a Republican trifecta in Washington would be unlikely to outright ban abortion nationally following the 2022 elections, the subject remains integral to Democratic turnout efforts. And Hogan will not be able to avoid it: Maryland will vote on an amendment to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution, something that is almost certain to pass.
Other hot-button issues don’t serve Hogan well, either. Current US Representative and Democratic Senate frontrunner David Trone accused Hogan of overseeing the removal of 200,000 voters from the state rolls. So, Hogan’s bipartisan bona fides are strong, but seem unlikely to carry the day in the face of overwhelming national issues. Although a Senator Hogan would likely vote against his party on some matters, it is difficult to imagine a state like Maryland, where President Biden is approved of by a majority of voters, giving McConnell another vote in the chamber. Interviews with recent Maryland voters indicate this attitude is alive and well.
Ticket-splitting is increasingly rare
Despite the recent blue state victories of Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Ron Johnson (R-WI), the Senate map is growing more partisan with each passing cycle. Should Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT) lose their seats in November, the 119th Congress will leave the former two states as the only ones with a split Senate delegation. Even before announcing his retirement, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) was immediately considered the underdog in West Virginia.
Maryland’s sheer Democratic edge and voting history indicate that it is not open to electing Republican Senators. Other governors of solidly opposite-party states narrowed the margins but still drastically fell short in their Senate bids, including Linda Lingle in Hawai’i, Steve Bullock in Montana, and Phil Bredesen in Tennessee. Maryland, it is worth noting, does not have a historic and underlying “ancestral” base that may vote for the opposite party the way West Virginia did for Manchin. Jon Tester, too, won when Montana mostly elected Democrats to the Senate. And Sherrod Brown last won when Ohio was still considered a swing state. None of this bodes well for Hogan’s chances.
Another, less-mentioned shortcoming Hogan must face is his seeming reluctance to serve in Washington. He has previously opted against running for either the Senate or the Presidency. Other Senate candidates have faced attacks on the campaign trail over similar sentiments, including Bullock and now-Senator John Hickenlooper of Colorado.
Enthusiasm will serve Hogan well, but the Maryland seat isn’t exactly crucial for Republicans. With Manchin’s West Virginia seat almost certain to flip red, Republicans will need to gain just one more seat to win the Senate majority – or none at all if the party wins the Presidential election. Elections Daily regards Arizona, Montana, and Ohio, all of which were won by Trump at least once, as the best chances for Republicans to gain additional seats.
The primary and general
Even in the Republican primary itself, there is no guarantee that Hogan clears the field. Maryland’s Eastern Shore is strongly pro-MAGA, sending Freedom Caucus firebrand Andy Harris to the House of Representatives. The conservative Panhandle of the state juts into Appalachia, and is politically much more in tune with Charleston than Annapolis. There is no credible, big-name opponent for Hogan, but if he were to lose the primary, that would immediately kill the party’s chances of taking Cardin’s seat. In the minds of hard-right Maryland Republicans, voting authentically may overshadow voting for electability in a state they never win. Indeed, Hogan’s preferred candidate for the 2022 gubernatorial primary was defeated by a pro-Trump Republican. Tellingly, Hogan’s approval rating was higher among Democrats than Republicans.
Despite all this, Hogan still has a slim shot at victory. Given his strong support from Democrats and the Black community in a state where Black people represent roughly 30% of the population, a shift in his favor, coupled with high conservative turnout, could tip the scales. The fact that Maryland Republicans lost ground across the board in 2018, on the same night Hogan secured a landslide reelection, indicates that voters see him as separate from the pack.
Additionally, a focus on issues especially important to Maryland, including crime and criminal justice, could swing the pendulum, as state-focused campaigns paid off for Manchin and Tester. Hogan is currently outpolling Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is running in the Democratic primary.
If everything works in his favor, Larry Hogan could possibly beat the odds and become the Joe Manchin of Maryland. But for now, we shouldn’t hold our breath. While Larry Hogan is likely to narrow the margins, and is performing well in polling data, translating his historic popularity into a federal, statewide win in Maryland is a tall order, one we should not expect him to conquer.