After the conclusion of the second meeting hosted between regional opposition parties in India in Bengaluru, 26 opposition parties, mainly regional parties, have decided to come together in order to counter the populist ruling BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) party in the upcoming elections in 2024. Parties in attendance included the Congress Party, All India Trinamool Congress Party (TMC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Nationalist Congress Party-Sharad Pawar Faction (NCP), Janata Dal United (JD(U)), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Shiv Sena-Uddav Balasaheb Thackeray Faction (SS(UBT)), Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha (JMM), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Communist Party India-Marxist (CPI(M)), and more.
The main highlight of the two-day meeting was the forming of the name of the alliance. After some discussion, the opposition parties formally named their alliance I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Originally the word “development” in the alliance was supposed to be named “democratic”. This was rejected because the opposition parties did not want it to sound similar to the ruling NDA, where the “D” stands for democratic. Other names that were proposed in naming the alliance were “India’s Main Front (IMF)”, “We for India”, and “Indian Progressive Front”. However, the name I.N.D.I.A was formally decided upon by Rahul Gandhi and the 26 opposition parties agreed to this.
Opposition unites ahead of 2024 elections
The reason behind choosing the name I.N.D.I.A as their alliance name was simple. The opposition seeks to frame the upcoming elections as a fight between the ruling BJP and India. One of the opposition leaders belonging to this alliance, Trinamool Congress Party leader (TMC) Mamata Banerjee said, “BJP, can you challenge I.N.D.I.A? We love our motherland, we are the patriotic people of the country, we stand for farmers, Dalits….I.N.D.I.A will win, our country will win and BJP will lose”. Mamata Banerjee said in the meeting, “From today, it’s a real challenge…..catch us if you can”.
President of the Congress Party Mallikarjun Kharge suggested he’d give up the Prime Minister post if the alliance succeeds. This would be for the purpose of restoring secularism and democracy with its allies. Kharge also said that though there were differences between the parties, that they should be set aside for the sake of the Indian people and in response to the conviction and disqualification of Congress Leader Rahul Gandhi after a court found him guilty in a defamation case. In order to set aside those differences, the parties discussed points of consensus.
One of the points discussed was fighting inflation and unemployment. The alliance said in a statement, “We must build a fair economy with a strong and strategic public sector as well as a competitive and flourishing private sector, in which the spirit of enterprise is fostered and given every opportunity to expand”. The parties decided that the next meeting would set up a coordination panel, composed of 11 people in order to arrange the seats upon which each opposition party would campaign single-handedly against the BJP.
The ruling BJP party held a meeting with their NDA, comprising 38 parties, on the same day as the new opposition. Since Modi’s election in 2014, the NDA has diminished. However, due to the strong, popular support of the BJP, the alliance has managed to perform well in the previous two general elections. Both times the BJP alone has achieved the majority in Parliament without the need to form a coalition. However, in response to the new unified opposition alliance, the BJP does not want to take any chances. Modi criticized the opposition as corrupt opportunists.
Can the I.N.D.I.A. alliance succeed?
This alliance is a major development in countering the ruling BJP-led NDA. It is clear that the BJP is quite a popular party. The I.N.D.I.A. alliance, on the other hand, has only less than half of the current seats f the BJP in the Lok Sabha. The BJP has 301 seats whereas I.N.D.I.A. has only 143 seats. The alliance comprises mainly regional parties. Defeating the NDA would require these parties to invest their efforts in defeating the BJP, without interference of any third parties.
The states from which these regional parties have a base and electoral success include Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, Jammu Kashmir, and Delhi. These states have a total of 336 constituencies; 272 seats are needed to form a majority. However, this path is not too simple. There are certain states that the I.N.D.I.A. alliance will struggle in.
The likely states
Several states are likely not to have difficulty in countering the BJP: Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. There might be disagreement classifying West Bengal as a comfortably easy state in defeating the BJP. This is because the BJP has made enormous success in the state since the 2019 elections. However, the TMC party, a regional party based in West Bengal, has comfortably won its elections since the 2011 state elections. In 2019, the party was dealt with a blow when the BJP won almost half of the seats from the state. This allowed them to expand their victory in the general elections. In the 2021 state elections, the TMC survived another term and maintained a comfortable majority in the state’s legislative assembly. However, the BJP bagged more than 70 seats in the state and formed a large opposition party there.
Despite the success of the BJP in West Bengal, the TMC has managed to maintain either a slight or a large majority in the state. With a united alliance, the TMC’s rival party in the state, the CPI(M), will not oppose the TMC. The union between the two regional rival parties gives a huge blow to BJP in West Bengal. As for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Punjab the BJP has not had successes in either state. Either regional parties or the Congress parties have won those states.
Where I.N.D.I.A may struggle
Some states will be a challenge for I.N.D.I.A. to compete in. These include Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, and Delhi. Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra have among the largest number of constituencies in India. These are two states that both parties are heavily working on in order to win the upcoming general elections.
In the 2014 and 2019 general elections, the BJP won by a landslide. This was one of the major factors in their victory. In the 2017 and 2022 state elections, the BJP won comfortable majorities. Including the SP regional party in the alliance would be extremely beneficial to the opposition’s goal of defeating the BJP. as the SP party is the second-largest party in the state. The threat, however, is that there is another opposition party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). BSP is not in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. Like SP, it is also a regional party based in Uttar Pradesh. Their absence from the alliance is a boon for the BJP.
Maharashtra, the second most populous state, is also another state for the opposition in targeting the BJP. The BJP has been able to perform well in the state and its regional elections with the help of their ally the Shiv Sena (SS) Party. Since the 2019 state elections, Maharashtra has witnessed three political crises unfold. Firstly, the SS party left the NDA and joined hands with the Congress Party and the NCP to form a government. This made the BJP an opposition party.
Last year, however, a rebel group from the SS led by Eknath Shinde rejoined the NDA and took full control over the party. This left the loyalists of the party in the opposition. Finally, earlier this month the NCP split. A majority of the party, led by Ajit Pawar, left and joined the NDA. This left only a few of its loyalists in the opposition, which has diminished the anti-NDA alliance in the state. Both the loyalist factions of the SS and NCP have joined the alliance. However, it seems nearly impossible for I.N.D.I.A. to win Maharashtra.
In Bihar, the JD(U) alliance was previously part of the NDA alliance. B both the BJP and JD(U) successfully swept the state in the previous election. The JD(U) had previously broke their alliance with the NDA when Narendra Modi was first elected in 2014, but rejoined the alliance back in 2017. As of 2022, the JD(U) has once again quit the NDA. Instead, they formed a new alliance at the state level with the Congress Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This union at the national level and state level could help them defeat the ruling party in Bihar. However, the state falls in the Hindi belt, an area in which the BJP has a strong voter base.
Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, and the rest
Karnataka, a South Indian state, is situated in a region which the BJP does not have any popularity. However, Karnataka is the only state in the South India region where the BJP has made successes. In the 2018 state elections and the 2019 general elections, the BJP managed to win the majority of seats. They further increased their majority in the state’s legislative assembly in the 2019 by-elections. However, in 2023, the Congress Party managed to win a comfortable majority in the state elections.
While this event could foreshadow a blow for the BJP in Karnataka, it is not so easy to say. A regional party based in Karnataka, the Janata Dal-Secular Party, (JD(S)), is a third party which has not joined the I.N.D.I.A alliance. They have a popular following in the state. With their absence from the alliance, it would leave the opposition force divided in the state.Tthe BJP could take advantage of this and sweep the state as it did in the previous general elections.
Jammu and Kashmir, which is now a Union Territory, is another question mark. The territory has a Muslim-majority population. The majority oppose the BJP and their decision to strip the autonomous status of the state in 2019. However, the BJP has enjoyed popular support from the minority Hindu population of Kashmir. After the stripping of its statehood and transformation into a Union Territory, Jammu Kashmir has only five constituencies. Three of its constituencies are Muslim-majority while the other two are Hindu-majority. A united opposition composed of the Congress Party and the regional parties JKNC and JKPDP would help them win at least three of the five constituencies.
Delhi, the capital of India, has seven constituency seats in the Lok Sabha. The AAP was founded in 2012. It has seen great success in the three previous regional elections that have taken place in Delhi. Currently, they enjoy a comfortable majority in Delhi and Punjab. However, the party struggles in Lok Sabha elections. They current only have a single constituency, Sangrur in Punjab. This united opposition could quite possibly make things a little easier. However, the BJP’s dominance of Delhi at the national level is most likely to foreshadow yet another defeat for the AAP in the upcoming federal elections.
All of these are just mere predictions and guesses, and it is unknown whether this alliance would succeed in winning the upcoming general elections. Due to the internal differences many of these opposition parties have, it would be interesting to see how it would manage to form a government. It’s unclear whether it would be able to complete its five-year tenure if elected. The BJP-led NDA is favored to win a third consecutive term.