After the 2020 redistricting cycle was implemented a year late, in 2021, Arizona redrew the congressional and state legislative district boundaries within the state. The Arizona State Senate lines were drawn to be a fair, if slightly Republican-leaning map. The map was host to several competitively drawn districts in 2022, a slightly Republican leaning national election year.
In the 2022 Arizona State Senate elections, held under the new district lines, Republicans maintained their narrow 16-14 majority in the State Senate. The election of Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, as Governor, meant that both sides will need to compromise on legislation. This article will look at the districts decided by 15% or less.
Arizona State Senate District Maps and Table Results
Note: A candidate running as an independent is shown as a Democrat in District 10.
| District | Republican | Democratic | RPCT | DPCT |
| 1 | 82,234 | 40,056 | 67.25% | 32.75% |
| 2 | 41,668 | 38,708 | 51.84% | 48.16% |
| 3 | 84,365 | 49,145 | 63.19% | 36.81% |
| 4 | 61,016 | 62,205 | 49.52% | 50.48% |
| 5 | 23,214 | 56,142 | 29.25% | 70.75% |
| 6 | 3,199 | 58,830 | 5.16% | 94.84% |
| 7 | 63,019 | 36,030 | 63.60% | 36.36% |
| 8 | 25,366 | 42,669 | 37.28% | 62.72% |
| 9 | 29,715 | 32,808 | 47.53% | 52.47% |
| 10 | 53,945 | 34,382* | 61.07% | 38.93%* |
| 11 | 12,290 | 37,265 | 24.80% | 75.20% |
| 12 | 42,008 | 58,349 | 41.86% | 58.14% |
| 13 | 48,590 | 45,340 | 51.73% | 48.27% |
| 14 | 64,591 | 1,588 | 97.60% | 2.40% |
| 15 | 60,850 | 33,120 | 64.75% | 35.25% |
| 16 | 41,057 | 32,636 | 55.71% | 44.29% |
| 17 | 63,501 | 60,420 | 51.24% | 48.76% |
| 18 | 40,896 | 67,343 | 37.78% | 62.22% |
| 19 | 67,200 | – | 100.00% | – |
| 20 | – | 49,966 | – | 99.94% |
| 21 | 22,604 | 40,312 | 35.93% | 64.07% |
| 22 | 3,722 | 6,629 | 33.09% | 58.93% |
| 23 | 25,194 | 29,175 | 46.34% | 53.66% |
| 24 | – | 25,984 | – | 100.00% |
| 25 | 59,471 | – | 100.00% | – |
| 26 | – | 25,626 | – | 100.00% |
| 27 | 43,719 | 35,574 | 55.14% | 44.86% |
| 28 | 72,873 | 44,982 | 61.83% | 38.17% |
| 29 | 51,466 | 35,812 | 58.97% | 41.03% |
| 30 | 73,780 | – | 100.00% | – |
| Total | 1,261,553 | 1,081,096 | 53.83% | 46.13% |
| Margin | R +180,457 | R +7.70% |
Arizona State Senate District 2
Arizona’s State Senate Sistrict 2 is based in the area surrounding Phoenix, the capital and the largest city in Arizona. Politically, the district is slightly Republican leaning, with a breakdown of 45,801 Republicans – 36,711 Democrats, with 48,270 voters registered as nonaffiliated or with the Libertarian party. This means that the district had a Republican voter advantage of 9,090 voters at the time of the 2022 election, or an advantage of 6.95%.
2nd District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 45,801 | 35.02% | 36,711 | 28.07% | 48,270 | 130,782 |
| Total | 45,801 | 35.02% | 36,711 | 28.07% | 48,270 | 130,782 |
| Margin | R +9,090 | R +6.95% |
Both parties saw their nominees go uncontested: running in the Republican primary was Steve Kaiser, the prior state representative for Arizona’s 15th district, while in the Democratic primary was candidate Jeanne Casteen, who had previously run for Maricopa County School Superintendent in 2020, an election she had lost narrowly to Republican incumbent Steve Watson. This meant that both candidates advanced to the general election unscathed by a primary.
2nd District Election Results
| County | Kaiser | Kaiser % | Casteen | Casteen % | Total |
| Maricopa | 41,668 | 51.84% | 38,708 | 48.16% | 80,376 |
| Total | 41,668 | 51.84% | 38,708 | 48.16% | 80,376 |
| Margin | R +2,960 | R +3.68% |
When the results were tallied, Kaiser won a narrow victory over Casteen. Kaiser won by a narrow margin of 2,960 votes, or 3.68%, despite a Republican-friendly electorate. This seat will likely be a top Democratic target in the 2024 Arizona State Senate elections.
Arizona State Senate District 4
Arizona State Senate District 4 is located to the southeast of Senate District 2, in the Phoenix area. It is a district that had a Republican voter registration edge, but is one where Democrats would be expected to compete; Biden narrowly carried the seat in 2020. The district is entirely composed of a portion of Maricopa County and had a Republican voter registration edge of 65,858 Republicans to 46,435 Democrats, or a margin of 19,423 voters (11.62%), while 53,953 voters are unaffiliated with a political party or are Libertarians.
4th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 65,858 | 39.38% | 46,435 | 27.76% | 54,953 | 167,246 |
| Total | 65,858 | 39.38% | 46,435 | 27.76% | 54,953 | 167,246 |
| Margin | R +19,423 | R +11.62% |
In the 2022 elections, an incumbent each from the Democratic and Republican parties ran for re-election in the district due to redistricting. Democratic incumbent Christine Marsh ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, advancing to the general against Republican incumbent Nancy Barto who also ran unopposed in her primary. This meant that both candidates could consolidate their resources for the general election, facing off in a rare incumbent versus incumbent election.
4th District Election Results
| County | Barto | Barto % | Marsh | Marsh % | Total |
| Maricopa | 61,016 | 49.52% | 62,205 | 50.48% | 123,221 |
| Total | 61,016 | 49.52% | 62,205 | 50.48% | 123,221 |
| Margin | D +1,189 | D +0.96% |
In the general election, Marsh defeated Barto in an extremely close election, holding the seat for the Arizona Democratic Party. Marsh won by a slim margin of 1,189 votes (0.96%). This seat will likely be a top Republican target in the 2024 Arizona State Senate elections, owing to its highly-competitive status.
Arizona State Senate District 9
Arizona State Senate District 9 is entirely composed of a portion of Maricopa County, near the city of Phoenix. The 9th State Senate district is a politically competitive but Democratic-leaning district on the whole; Joe Biden carried it by around six percentage points in 2020. Overall, Republicans have had a narrow registration advantage of 1,269 voters, with more voters unaffiliated with either major party than affiliated with one
9th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 35,626 | 31.68% | 34,357 | 30.55% | 42,476 | 112,459 |
| Total | 35,626 | 31.68% | 34,357 | 30.55% | 42,476 | 112,459 |
| Margin | R +1,269 | R +1.13% |
In the primary for the 9th State Senate district, Eva Burch, the Democratic candidate, ran unopposed, while Robert Scantlebury faced off against Tyler Pace, the Republican incumbent, in the Republican primary. In the Republican primary, Scantlebury won with 12,308 votes (66.93%, while Pace took 6,081 votes (33.07%).
9th District Election Results
| County | Scantlebury | Scantlebury % | Burch | Burch % | 3rd | Total |
| Maricopa | 29,715 | 47.53% | 32,808 | 52.47% | 0 | 62,523 |
| Total | 29,715 | 47.53% | 32,808 | 52.47% | 0 | 62,523 |
| Margin | D +3,093 | D +4.94% |
In the general election, Burch defeated Scantlebury by a narrow margin. Burch won the district by 3,093 votes, a margin of 4.9%, securing the seat as a Democratic gain. Republicans might target this district in 2024.
Arizona State Senate District 13
Arizona State Senate District 13 is located entirely in southern Maricopa County and is a politically competitive district. Republicans had a sizable voter registration edge in the district at the time of the 2022 election, but the district did narrowly back Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of around 3%.
13th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 50,504 | 36.24% | 40,011 | 28.71% | 48,841 | 139,356 |
| Total | 50,504 | 36.24% | 40,011 | 28.71% | 48,841 | 139,356 |
| Margin | R +10,493 | R +7.53% |
In the primaries for the 13th district of Arizona, Republican incumbent J.D. Mesnard went unopposed while the Democratic primary was contested between Cindy Hans and Michael Morris. In the Democratic primary, Hans took 12,075 votes (63.88%), while Morris earned 6,828 votes (36.12%), with Hans advancing to the general election against Mesnard.
13th District Election Results
| County | Mesnard | Mesnard % | Hans | Hans % | Total |
| Maricopa | 48,590 | 51.73% | 45,340 | 48.27% | 93,930 |
| Total | 48,590 | 51.73% | 45,340 | 48.27% | 93,930 |
| Margin | R +3,250 | R +3.46% |
In the general election, Mesnard won by a narrow margin against Hans. Mesnard won the district by 3,250 votes, a margin of 3.5%. This seat will likely be a top Democratic offensive target in the 2024 Arizona State Senate elections, as the turnout dynamic will be different in a presidential election versus a midterm year.
Arizona State Senate District 16
Arizona State Senate District 16 is primarily located within Pinal County, with slivers of Maricopa and Pima counties. The district is in the southern portion of the state and is politically competitive. At the time of the 2022 elections, Republicans had a 2,667-voter advantage over Democrats, with unaffiliated and Libertarian voters making up the largest chunk of voters (53,708). In the 2020 election, Donald Trump carried the seat by nearly four percentage points.
16th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 77 | 6.02% | 608 | 47.50% | 595 | 1,280 |
| Pima | 7,863 | 32.02% | 8,994 | 36.62% | 7,702 | 24,559 |
| Pinal | 37,139 | 32.19% | 32,810 | 28.44% | 45,411 | 115,360 |
| Total | 45,079 | 31.93% | 42,412 | 30.04% | 53,708 | 141,199 |
| Margin | R +2,667 | R +1.89% |
Both T.J. Shope (the Republican incumbent) and Democratic challenger Taylor Kerby ran unopposed in their respective primaries. This meant that both candidates could focus their resources on winning in the general election.
16th District Election Results
| County | Shope | Shope % | Kerby | Kerby % | Total |
| Maricopa | 50 | 14.29% | 300 | 85.71% | 350 |
| Pima | 7,555 | 46.59% | 8,660 | 53.41% | 16,215 |
| Pinal | 33,452 | 58.56% | 23,676 | 41.44% | 57,128 |
| Total | 41,057 | 55.71% | 32,636 | 44.29% | 73,693 |
| Margin | R +8,421 | R +11.42% |
In the general election, Republican incumbent Shope won a convincing victory over Kerby in this battleground district. Kerby massively underperformed, losing by a margin of 11.4%. Kerby won the Maricopa and Pima County portions by a combined 1,355 votes, but this was not enough to overpower Shope’s decisive edge of 9,776 votes in Pinal County.
Arizona State Senate District 17
Arizona State Senate 17 is located near the southeast corner of the state and is comprised of portions of Pima and Pinal counties. The population base of the district is in Pima County. Overall, Republicans had a strong voter registration advantage over Democrats in the district, with over 16,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. However, 55,013 voters are either unaffiliated or are Libertarians. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won the seat by just over four percentage points.
17th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Pima | 61,888 | 38.37% | 48,253 | 29.92% | 51,154 | 161,295 |
| Pinal | 5,805 | 44.62% | 3,347 | 25.72% | 3,859 | 13,011 |
| Total | 67,693 | 38.84% | 51,600 | 29.60% | 55,013 | 174,306 |
| Margin | R +16,093 | R +9.24% |
In the primaries for the 17th State Senate District, the Democratic candidate, Mike Nickerson, went unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican primary was contested. Justine Wadsack won the Republican primary with 16,329 votes (40.93%) against Republican incumbent Vince Leach, who took 14,161 votes (35.49%). A third Republican candidate, Robert Barr, garnered 9,407 votes (23.58%). Wadsack and Nickerson advanced to the general election, which was seen as competitive in 2022.
17th District Election Results
| County | Wadsack | Wadsack % | Nickerson | Nickerson % | Total |
| Pima | 57,655 | 50.86% | 55,704 | 49.14% | 113,359 |
| Pinal | 5,846 | 55.35% | 4,716 | 44.65% | 10,562 |
| Total | 63,501 | 51.24% | 60,420 | 48.76% | 123,921 |
| Margin | R +3,081 | R +2.48% |
In the general election, Wadsack won a narrow victory. Wadsack won the district by just 3,081 votes, a margin of 2.5%. This seat will likely be a Democratic offensive target in the 2024 Arizona State Senate elections.
Arizona State Senate District 23
Arizona State Senate District 23 is in the southwestern portion of the state, on the border with Mexico. The district is Democratic-leaning, with portions of Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, and Yuma located within. The population base of the district is in Yuma County, where the largest number of voters reside. Democrats possessed a 15,676-voter advantage in the seat; this is similar to Joe Biden’s performance in the seat, which he carried by 13.5%.
23rd District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 13,405 | 33.48% | 11,560 | 28.87% | 15,074 | 40,039 |
| Pima | 4,479 | 19.13% | 10,745 | 45.88% | 8,194 | 23,418 |
| Pinal | 8 | 3.35% | 149 | 62.34% | 82 | 239 |
| Yuma | 11,059 | 19.20% | 22,173 | 38.50% | 24,364 | 57,596 |
| Total | 28,951 | 23.87% | 44,627 | 36.79% | 47,714 | 121,292 |
| Margin | D +15,676 | D +12.92% |
Both major party candidates went unopposed in their respective primaries: Democratic candidate Brian Fernandez and Republican candidate Gary Garcia Snyder. Heading into the election, it was assumed that the Democratic candidate would win handily, but Republicans have sometimes come close to winning the various iterations of the district in favorable midterm years, where turnout dynamics help Republicans.
-23rd District Election Results
| County | Snyder | Snyder % | Fernandez | Fernandez % | Total |
| Maricopa | 12,792 | 54.90% | 10,510 | 45.10% | 23,302 |
| Pima | 3,865 | 34.65% | 7,289 | 65.35% | 11,154 |
| Pinal | 3 | 3.23% | 90 | 96.77% | 93 |
| Yuma | 8,534 | 43.06% | 11,286 | 56.94% | 19,820 |
| Total | 25,194 | 46.34% | 29,175 | 53.66% | 54,369 |
| Margin | D +3,981 | D +7.32% |
In the general election, Democratic candidate Fernandez won a closer-than-expected victory over Republican candidate Snyder. Snyder was able to keep the district close by winning the Maricopa County portion by 2,282 votes. However, Fernandez won the rest of the district’s counties by 6,263 votes, allowing him to carry the district by just under 4,000 votes, a margin of 7.3%. This seat is unlikely to be a target for Republicans in 2024.
Arizona State Senate District 27
The 27th State Senate district of Arizona is located entirely within northern Maricopa County and is a district with a significant Republican voter registration edge. The district at the time of the election possessed a Republican voter edge of 12,506 voters, or 9.21%; this is comparable to Donald Trump’s 8-point margin in 2020.
27th District Party Registration Data (As of November Election)
| County | Republicans | R % | Democrats | D % | 3rd Party | Total |
| Maricopa | 50,137 | 36.94% | 37,631 | 27.73% | 47,955 | 135,723 |
| Total | 50,137 | 36.94% | 37,631 | 27.73% | 47,955 | 135,723 |
| Margin | R +12,506 | R +9.21% |
In the 2022 primaries for the 27th State Senate district, Democrat Brittani Barraza went unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Republican Anthony Kern emerged victorious in the Republican primary, taking 17,335 votes (67.63%) to Jamie Kelly’s 8,297 votes (32.37%). Kern and Barraza advanced to the general election in this Republican leaning district.
27th District Election Results
| County | Kern | Kern % | Barraza | Barraza % | Bar | Total |
| Maricopa | 43,719 | 55.14% | 35,574 | 44.86% | 0 | 79,293 |
| Total | 43,719 | 55.14% | 35,574 | 44.86% | 0 | 79,293 |
| Margin | R +8,145 | R +10.28% |
In the general election, Republican Kern won a convincing victory over Democratic candidate Baraza. Kern won the district by a margin of 8,145 votes, or 10.3%. This will probably be on the outer limits of the battleground districts in the 2024 Arizona State Senate elections.