Welcome back to another edition of Global News Roundup. This week has seen many events transpire, mostly in the defense sector. Europe in particular, is seeing a security-focused week, with the Ukranian counteroffensive intensifying over the week.
Europe
The East Wants a Turn at NATO
The Secretary-General of NATO is one of the most stressful jobs on the planet, with being in charge of leading a coalition of countries through conflicts while being in unity. Ever since 2014, former Norweigan Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg has been at the helm of NATO and got a temporary term extension following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A member of the center-left Labour Party, Stoltenberg has been seen as a strong and effective leader who has managed to string along most of the members, and he was seen as influential in getting Turkey to permit Finland’s accession into NATO last year. Stoltenberg’s term is up yet again, and the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius will see the position yet again contested, or normally it would be.
Stoltenberg has said he intends to step down, but allies are now pressuring him to stay on. The consensus candidate was initially seen to be Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a center-left nationalist who gained head waves for introducing a domestic immigration policy that was seen as more conservative than the typical center-left leader would propose. Leaders like US President Joe Biden have applauded her credentials, but Denmark recently held the NATO Secretary-General position, and some want a different leader.
The other commonly floated name is UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, but many EU members do not want a non-EU member leading the NATO coalition.
That is why Eastern Europe is now pushing for a chance to take the helm, with Poland now proposing Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. A classical liberal, Kallas has led the charge to be one of the most pro-Ukraine leaders in Europe. Estonia donated all of their 155mm (NATO standard) howitzers to Ukraine, called for Ukraine’s membership into both NATO and the European Union, and has helped get more NATO personnel to defend the Baltic states, which would be very vulnerable to a Russian invasion, with the Suwalki Gap separating the Baltic states from the rest of Europe and thus NATO.
Kallas is a popular head of state both domestically and throughout Europe, but the Eastern European bloc might not be strong enough. That is why it is expected that Stoltenberg will be given another extension while a successor is selected, but it is clear there is not too much consensus on who should succeed him.
The Johnson Legacy Continues to Die
Earlier this week, it was announced that UK conservative member of parliament Nadine Dorries would step down. People were surprised, but the reasoning was she wanted a peerage, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak refused to grant without providing a reason. Dorries refuses to resign her seat in the House of Commons unless given an explanation on why she cannot get a peerage.
Dorries was one of the largest supporters of former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson (2019-2022), but Johnson resigned after it became apparent he did not follow his own COVID-19 protocols with multiple scandals including “Partygate” revealing he partied at gatherings that were not permitted at the time due to the Coronavirus situation.
Johnson finally resigned the same day Dorries did, with the scandals being his reasoning. Covid lockdown violations were a major part of the UK’s Covid struggle, with scandals both impacting Johnson and the head of the opposition labor party leader Keir Starmer. Starmer said he would resign if a police investigation proved wrongdoing, which the report later did not find.
With Johnson vacating his outer London-based constituency of Uxbridge & South Ruislip it will be interesting to see if labor can win the by-election. If they do it will continue the panic that has been continuously occurring as all polling shows the torys are headed for a drubbing in the next general election. The polling was backed up by the Tories losing over 1,000 council seats in this year’s local elections.
Johnson likely caused a rupture in trust for many with the conservatives, but Sunak is trying to help reform the party’s image. Incidents like his dispute with Dorries will likely compromise this mission.
Lukashenko Takes Another L
Since 2007, Belarus has been frothing at the mouth for a rotating seat on the United Nations Security Council. Where there are five permanent council members, there are also ten non-permanent members elected by a 2/3 majority by the entire UN.
That is why Belarus was taken aback when Slovenia threw its hat in the ring for the seat Belarus thought they had a clear lane in. The race immediately blew up as it became a pseudo-proxy-referendum on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Russia being Belaruses largest ally and NATO members being Slovenia’s largest backers.
Despite this, Slovenia worked hard to prove that it was not their intent to join the race at NATO’s request and did a hopscotch campaign of courting countries. Slovenia bested Belarus 153-38 when the final secret vote occurred, well above the 2/3 required.
This upset Belarus, who thought they were entitled to the spot, despite Lukashenko touting Belarus, “Wouldn’t hesitate to order the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons that are set to be deployed to Belarus if his country faces an aggression.” This is very similar to the rhetoric of Russian officials and lends credence that Belarus may not have been a viable candidate, especially considering Belarus is an autocratic state where freedom of speech is largely curtailed.
Slovenia joining the Security Council is a boon to the three western members of the permanent council while displeasing Russia.
Asia-Pacific
TikTok Eyes Southeast Asia
With more scrutiny being levied against the company for alleged security concerns regarding user data being provided to the Chinese government, TikTok is looking to expand to more markets, and southeastern Asia is a prime target. While TikTok does have a foothold there, they are overshadowed by competitors like Alibaba, especially when it comes to e-commerce.
TikTok is now investing billions into boosting e-commerce revenue in the area. TikTok advertises products and services from companies that pay for the advertising, and TikTok gets a slice of the revenue. In the US, TikTok’s advertisement strategy has worked well.
Tiktok CEO Shou Zi Chew did not elaborate on how TikTok would expand in the region, but a key pillar will be training small vendors in the area and investing in advertising.
TikTok is owned by the Chinese firm ByteDance, and multiple states and countries have banned the app on Government devices for spying concerns. Southeast Asia hasn’t had as much anti-TikTok sentiment, but much of the app’s criticism revolves around the content on the app. Indonesia made news in 2018 when the country briefly banned TikTok for “pornography, inappropriate content and blasphemy.” Vietnam also announced they were probing TikTok for “toxic” posts.
A Cricket Compromise
Pakistan and India have historically been bitter nuclear-armed rivals whose different religious identities often clash, with India’s large Hindi population often clashing with Pakistan’s large Muslim population.
Pakistan had historically been closer to the US, with India mainly depending on the Soviet Union for arms. Pakistan-US relations further grew when the US would funnel arms and money through Pakistan’s intelligence agency so Pakistan could provide it to the mujahideen fighting the Taliban. However, these relations thawed after 9/11’s War on Terror antagonized Pakistan, where Osama Bin Laden would later be found.
Despite this, Pakistan and India still have extremely tense relations and have refused to play each other in cricket since 2012. Neither country will play on their rival’s territory, with both nations proclaiming a neutral nation must host a sports tournament for them to play.
That is why the Vice President of the Asia Cricket Council and Chair of the Oman-India business council Pankaj Khimji broked an agreement to have Pakistan host four matches and Sri Lanka host nine, with India playing in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is swamped in debt but still agreed to take on the project of hosting the Asia Cricket Cup.
Despite this the move is still seen as symbolic, as India and Pakistan will be competing in the same tournament for the first time in over a decade. It is unclear what would exactly occur if India and Pakistan advance to the final stages, where they may have to compete directly, but the match would likely occur in Sri Lanka.
The U.S. Government Gated in by China
China and the US have been on tense ground, and it did not help in the slightest when a Chinese spy balloon was caught over the United States earlier this year. China said it was a meteorological surveillance device that strayed from its mission, but US intelligence later claimed it was an intentional act by the Chinese Government to spy on critical US defense facilities. This caused US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to cancel a trip to China, which would be postponed until June 16th when Blinken departed to China.
Many in the US see China as the largest global security threat, outpacing Russia, North Korea, and other states with unfriendly relations with the U.S. Both major 2024 GOP nominees – Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump – have emphasized fighting China over Russia.
It will be telling what comes out of the dialogue, but it will likely revolve around areas where mutual cooperation can occur like the high volumes of opioids that illegally are trafficked globally from China, many going into the US.
What is also telling is that Blinken isn’t even the first US citizen to meet with the Chinese Government this week, with Microsoft founder Bill Gates meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. That meeting saw Jinping call Gates an “old friend.” It is interesting to see China communicating directly with US business leaders instead of government representatives.
Next week will show what culminated out of Blinkens meeting, as well as potentially more information regarding Gates visit.
Africa
Grounded in Warsaw
Last week saw the African Mission for Peace, a group of African leaders led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, visit Ukraine to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the Russo-Ukraine war.
The mission was also to show Africa to be a peace mediator, but there were issues from the start. South Africa has stated it is nonaligned in the conflict, but they are still in BRICS, an economic forum with Russia being a key member. More recently, the US Ambassador to South Africa Reuben E. Brigety stated that in December a Russian ship named Lady R. docked in Cape Town and was, “uploaded weapons and ammunition” from South Africa. He further said, “We are confident that weapons were loaded onto that vessel and I will bet my life on the accuracy of that assertion.”
South Africa denied the accusation, but the incident further eroded Ukraine’s trust in the leader of the peace mission. Furthermore, the spokesman to Ramaphosa, Vincent Magwenya caused an uproar on Friday when he tweeted that he heard no air raid sirens or missiles when visiting Kyiv. He would directly contradict himself later when he admitted the South African President had to be rushed to a bomb shelter.
Meanwhile in Warsaw a plane carrying reporters as well as around 120 members of the South African Presidents Presidential Protection Unit were grounded in Warsaw by Polish authorities. The delegation accused the Polish government of trying to prevent Ramaphosas security detail accompany him to Ukraine, but Poland said it was because there were heavy weapons onboard that were not declared prior to landing. This equipment was heavy weaponry from the PPU that typically would not be used for Presidential security detail, and it did appear it was undeclared.
This led to many in South Africa to say it was because of Poland being racist to an African nation, but Poland has vehemently denied this accusation. Regardless after being grounded, the plane was eventually given the go-ahead to go further to Rzesnow by the Polish authorities.
Opposition takes Guinea-Bissau
What was considered a fragile democracy has become even more fragile, with President Umaro Sissoco Embalo assuming office in January 2020. Embalo worked to fix his status as the head of state, with Embalo dissolving parliament for over a year and postponing legislative elections from December of 2022 to just this past week. The opposition alliance PAI-Terra secured 54 out of 102 seats, while Embalos Madem G15 carried just 29 seats. The split government could help ebb concerns of an eroding democracy, although Embalo could once again attempt to flex his executive muscle.
Jaws Update
Last week saw social media circles in Egypt buzz with a video of a shark attack off the Egyptian coast. The now deceased victim Vladimir Popov was identified to be a 23-year old Russian citizen who had been in Egypt for several months. His father made a noteworthy statement by saying it was his son’s “destiny” to be consumed by the shark.
It appears he was a victim of a pregnant tiger shark who had previously mauled two other victims, although his death led to the execution of the shark who chose the shallow waters for easier prey.
The Americas
Iran Heads West
While the African peace mission occurred in Ukraine and Russia this week Iran went out west to meet with potential allies.
Cuba has made noise for apparently permitting a Chinese surveillance station on their island which could potentially monitor communications from US Southern Command in Florida. They now welcomed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as well as the Iranian ambassador to Cuba Mohamad Hadi Sobhan this past Thursday, coming off the heels of a visit to Venezuela. Cuba and Iran talked about closer partnerships in several fields such as biotechnology and electricity generation.
Raisi also visited Nicaraguas leader Daniel Ortega. It is notable but unsurprising that Raisi would chart his trip by visiting nations not only hostile to the US but three nations where there is a lack of democracy and well-documented human rights abuses perpetrated by the states.
US White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby stated on the subject “We don’t ask countries in this hemisphere or any other to choose who they’re going to associate with or who they’re going to talk to or who they’re going to allow to visit.”
U.S. Immigration Gets Moved South
In an attempt to have fewer undocumented immigrants right next to the US border, there has been a set of new migrant processing centers opened. The “Safe Mobility” initiative will work to have immigrants from the central corridor (Central America) waiting for visas for asylum to be able to get a request processed in Central America. New processing centers have been opened in Colombia, Guatemala, and Costa Rica.
This is to also reduce the amount of crossings through the Darien, a jungle isthmus from Colombia to Panama that is extremely dangerous. The UN reported over 100,000 border crossings through the Darien just this year, a six-fold increase from the same time in 2022.
This move could also reduce wait times at the US-Mexico border, where a sizable share of migrants come from the central corridor. By having more “waiting rooms” down south, it can reduce congestion both by more processing centers and also by seeing the validity of a migrants asylum request from Central America. This way a migrant doesn’t come to the border only to find out they’re ineligible for asylum.
There has been scrutiny of this proposal, with a major one being that the U.S. is overlooking corruption in countries willing to open more migrant processing centers. There has been particular scrutiny of the deal with Guatemala, where there is alarm over democracy being imperiled by the current government.
Vegas, Baby!
When the 2022-2032 congressional lines were drawn, many watched district-rich states like Florida and Texas, but a less talked about state is Nevada. With Democrats finally in control of redrawing with a trifecta at the time they made three Biden-won seats and one Trump-won seat, and many Democrats worried they drew themselves out too thin.
Check out Aidan Sterk’s analysis on Nevada’s new lines.