Our Final Predictions for the 2023 Virginia Primaries

You see the title – you know what time it is, folks. The most wonderful time of the year, a huge primary night in the middle of June. With nine races already done (all GOP conventions or firehouse primaries, six on the house side and three on the senate side), we have over 40 primary races between Delegate and Senate seats combined tomorrow night. Here are my final predictions for every primary race in Virginia.

(A note: I’m not including the two primaries, HD-02 on the Democratic side and HD-50 on the Republican side, where a candidate has dropped out, leaving one candidate still campaigning, but dropped out too late for the ballot to change.)

House of Delegate Dem Primary Predictions

• HD-07 (Reston Area, Fairfax VA): This four-person Democratic primary to replace longtime Delegate Ken Plum is really more of a three-person race. Outsider Mary Barthelson has raised very little and compared to the other three candidates hasn’t run much of a campaign. This race will really come down to Paul Berry, Shyamali Hauth, and Fairfax School Board member Karen Keys-Gamarra. Berry has raised the most of the three, mainly thanks to backing from both Sonjia Smith and the Virginia Latino Caucus. Hauth also has backing from the ultra-rich Smith (whose donation power we’ve covered here before), but Keys-Gamarra maybe has the most important backer of all- 15,000 dollars and an endorsement from Delegate Plum. I can see a scenario for all three to come out victorious, but I think, in a change from my early predictions, that Keys-Gamarra, with name recognition advantage as a school board member and Plum’s endorsement, pulls this one out narrowly. But it’s not hard for me to see Berry or Hauth winning Tuesday night either. Lean Keys-Gamarra
• HD-15 (Springfield Area, Fairfax): This primary is very much still Springfield District School Board member Laura Jane Cohen’s to lose, and Henri Thompson, who apparently has no money, isn’t a serious candidate in the race. However, area businessman Eric Schmitt gave himself nearly 138,000 dollars to be a player in this race. Cohen is still a pretty hefty favorite in my opinion, but the door is not closed for Schmitt in this race. If his late spending makes some waves, it could make for a more interesting and much closer race that I would’ve thought possible back in May. Likely Cohen
• HD-19 (Parts of Fairfax and Prince William): My thoughts on this primary haven’t changed much from my original prediction back in May. I still consider Makya Little a solid favorite over Rozia Henson and Natalie Shorter in this race, as she’s continued her advantage in fundraising and ground game activity. Interestingly, this is one race where neither Clean Virginia or Dominion Energy seem set to be backing a winning candidate. Clean Virginia has backed Henson, while Dominion has backed Shorter. If there was someone to surprise I think it would end up being Henson, who seems to have grabbed most of the progressive groups as supporters. But Little is the candidate I see coming out on top here. Be warned, however – the early vote here is significantly smaller than much of NoVA. This race will be decided by Election Day turnout. Likely Little
• HD-26 (Loudoun): Not much to say here. Kannan Srinivasan is running away in all facets of this campaign and should easily dominate on election night. If he doesn’t something very weird happened. You can quote me on that too. Safe Srinivasan
• HD-54 (Charlottesville): With Delegate Sally Hudson attempting to get a promotion to the state Senate, this uber-blue Charlottesville-based seat is open to a three candidate race. Abelmarle County School Board member Katrina Callsen has raised the most money by far and away, mainly with help from Sonjia Smith. She’s dominating all aspects of fundraising and spending currently, and should be a relatively solid favorite with that in mind. However, while former Mayor of Charlottesville Dave Norris has little money, he is hoping that name recognition from his time as Mayor lifts him up. I don’t expect Bellamy Brown to make much noise here. I expect Callsen to win this one, but there’s a definite path for Norris. Lean Callsen
• HD-55 (Albemarle, western Louisa, and north Nelson): This is a primary race that suddenly gained a lot of drama. Amy Laufer, a former Charlottesville City School Board member and former Albemarle County Democratic Party Chair, has raised more money and has more well known endorsements than her opponent, nurse Kellen Squire. But Laufer has caused controversy for an attack used against Squire in recent weeks in mailers. Laufer has highlighted comments from Squire on a previous run that seemed to highlight he was willing to put restrictions on abortion. That immediately drew criticism from multiple individuals, specifically because Squire is an individual who has performed abortions before. Squire has admitted that his comments were meant as a commentary on the GOP position regarding abortion. How smart that was can be commented on, but the fact remains that Laufer arguably misused parts of Squire’s comments for a mailer. This has caused a wave of sudden attention to a primary where it felt like Laufer was coasting to a ten-point win. But Squire has a new wave of grassroots support backing him that seem to have risen his campaign. However, in the end, I think it will be a matter of too little too late. Squire has a lot of momentum behind him, and it could still definitely take him over the top. But I feel Laufer takes this one by a small margin in the end. Lean Laufer
• HD-57 (western Henrico): In a rarity these days, we have a relatively competitive Democratic primary in a competitive seat. Susanna Gibson and Bob Shippee both have raised considerable amounts of money so far. However, in the recent weeks it feels like Gibson, who I already considered a small favorite in my last article preview, has gained more momentum. Gibson specifically picked up an endorsement from Ralph Northam, and also has the backing of Democratic Senate Leader Louise Lucas and Legislative Black Caucus Chair Senator Lamont Bagby. That’s not to say Shippee does not have his own high profile backers. Endorsements from Senators Jennifer Boysko and Lionell Spruill as well as backing from Democratic Senate Floor Leader Dick Saslaw highlight Shippee’s endorsement list. But Gibson soundly beat Shippee in the fundraising game last quarter, and I see her as a more clear favorite than I did last month. Lean Gibson
• HD-79 (east Richmond): This one isn’t hard. This open, majority black seat in Richmond saw three Democrats take a leap. But one, Rae Cousins, has dominated the field. Richard Walker was a non factor in the first place, but Richmond City Councilwoman Ann Lambert has struggled to get momentum herself. I expect Cousins to win Tuesday night in relatively easy fashion. Safe Cousins
• HD-80 (central Henrico): Same as the last race. Destiny Bolling is a strong favorite in this race against John Dantzler, who has spent little to no money on this primary race at all. Bolling will be the nominee and then almost certainly a Delegate in the safely democratic seat. Safe Bolling
• HD-81 (east Henrico, Charles City): Incumbent Delegate Dolores McQuinn faces a challenge to her left in the form of Terrence Walker, and it was one that I wasn’t expecting to rate as competitive. After some early hype, noise around Walker has died down. While McQuinn had to move into this seat, she still represented nearly 70% of this district on the old map. Walker’s fundraising has been disappointing as well, and McQuinn has the backing of much of the Richmond area establishment. However, recently there was a late donation of over $20,000 to McQuinn, which gives me some pause in declaring this race as safely in her column. I still consider her a strong favorite, but I do believe a small path for Walker is there. Likely McQuinn
• HD-82 (Petersburg, Dinwiddie, Prince George, Surry): For a hot minute it looked like Victor McKenzie would become the clear nominee after opponent Kimberly Adams said she would drop out. However, Adams reneged on that promise a few hours later and stuck in the race. McKenzie is still a hefty favorite, but Adams was bailed out by a $20,000 donation from EMILY’s List in the last fundraising quarter that put her closer on even terms with McKenzie in the money game. That’s enough for me to not totally count Adams out. But this is still very much McKenzie’s race to lose. Likely McKenzie
• HD-84 (Isle of Wight, Suffolk and Franklin): Former Delegate Nadarius Clark resigned his seat, which was based in Portsmouth and Norfolk, to move to Suffolk to run here and avoid a primary against current House Democratic Leader Don Scott. However, that move led to Clark getting a challenge from Michelle Joyce, an Isle of Wight resident and long time Democratic activist. Clark has unsurprisingly dominated the money game. His relationship with Clean Virginia has paid off again, with them and Sonjia Smith personally funding much of his war chest. However, Dominion came in for Joyce in the last financial quarter, giving her campaign some money. This primary also has pretty low turnout in the early vote, meaning this race will be decided on Election Day. I expect Joyce to do very well in the Isle of Wight precincts and the whiter parts of Suffolk. However, I think Clark’s much larger war chest and campaign team pays off in dividends for him. I think he’s a strong, but not certain favorite. Likely Clark
• HD-92 (Norfolk and Chesapeake): Kim Sudderth and Bonita Anthony, both Norfolk residents, are competing for this new, majority black seat in Hampton Roads. Dividing lines have been drawn here, with Sudderth taking some more progressive positions while Anthony has tried to straddle the line between establishment and progressive wings more. Specifically, Sudderth has been backed by Clean Virginia and Sonjia Smith, with a $30,000 donation from Smith growing Sudderth’s war chest significantly. It’s hard to get a full read on this race, however, Sudderth has gained more endorsements and more money. It makes me think she’s the slight favorite here. However, don’t underestimate Anthony, who’s backed by Delegate Angelia Williams Graves, who’s running for SD-21, which overlaps with most of this district. Sudderth has backing from the other candidate in that race, Andria McClellan, which makes for an interesting storyline. I expect this one to be very close Tuesday night. Lean Sudderth
• HD-95 (Virginia Beach): This one is pretty simple. I expect former Delegate Alex Askew to trounce perennial candidate Rick James Tuesday. Askew has more money, name recognition and backing here. It would be a massive surprise if James even got close. Safe Askew
• HD-96 (Virginia Beach): The other big primary in Virginia Beach? Not so simple. This four way primary got shaken up when Delegate Kelly Fowler, who said on the floor and to press early in 2023 that she would retire, became a late entry into this race. This was also after endorsing one of the candidates already in this race, Susan Hippen. Hippen has continued to be the fundraising leader in this race, the only candidate to raise six figures. This is in part from big donations from Dominion Energy, which has led to Clean Virginia giving heft sums to the remaining three candidates, and Sonjia Smith throwing $40,000 to Fowler in the last week. However, from what I’ve actually heard in the district, there is a certain tiredness with Fowler, who has been one of the least effective delegates in her time in office. A good chunk of individuals from both establishment and progressive wings have thrown their backing behind Hippen, and if this was a one on one race, she’d be a heavy favorite. However, with another two candidates in the race, it makes things more complicated. I’m specifically interested in Sean Monteiro, who has raised a nice chunk of change himself. But in the end, I do think Hippen is the slight favorite here, with a narrow victory coming her way. Lean Hippen

GOP House of Delegates Primaries

• HD-21 (northern Prince William): This key GOP primary in a crucial tossup seat seemed more competitive last month than it does now. A month ago Josh Quill and John Stirrup were neck and neck in the fundraising game. However, the newest reports show a clear GOP caucus favorite in Stirrup. It should come as no surprise that most GOP House leaders are backing Stirrup, who seems like a safer choice as the former Gainesville District Supervisor. The Gainesville District covers most of this House district, and while it has been a while since Stirrup has served, he has stayed active enough to keep up his slight name recognition advantage. There’s certainly a lane for the outsider Quill, but Stirrup has a clear advantage going into Tuesday. Likely Stirrup
• HD-39 (Franklin, Roanoke County): This open seat in southwest Virginia brings in two candidates from very different backgrounds. Will Davis is a lawyer from Franklin who’s been involved in law for multiple decades. Ron Jefferson is a retired former electrician with Appalachian Power. I don’t know if you could get any more different in backgrounds from two candidates. Davis has both more money and endorsements, specifically from much of the Franklin County portion of the district. Jefferson has steadily improved in the past month, and I have heard that he’s been more visible with the grassroots. But Franklin County has backed the more establishment friendly candidates even in recent years. It still backed Charles Poindexter over Wren Williams back in 2021, and Poindexter has thrown his backing behind Davis. Jefferson is better positioned for an upset now than he was a week ago for sure. But Davis is still a solid favorite in my view. Lean Davis
• HD-47 (Carroll, Patrick, Floyd, Henry): If you’ve been watching Virginia politics, you know about this race. Two super conservative delegates are battling it out for this new seat in southwest Virginia. However, its one I don’t think will end up being that interesting. It has been well documented that Republicans want Marie March gone. She’s made few friends, has been at odds with the Governor and Lt. Governor, and has been very inefficient as a Delegate. Wren Williams has dominated fundraising and campaign spending so far, and without the nice home of a convention for March, it’s hard to see her doing much. She has little money and no staff. It really would be a massive surprise if she won this race. Safe Williams
• HD-59 (west Hanover, east Louisa, Henrico): Incumbent Buddy Fowler is facing a serious challenge from former Louisa County GOP chair Graven Craig in this redrawn district. Craig has matched Fowler blow for blow in the fundraising game (partially thanks to his own money), but the question of this race will be a geographical one. Fowler represented the entire portion of Hanover under the old lines. However, the portion of Louisa and the addition of the part in Henrico are totally new. The question is can Fowler win by enough in Hanover? I think he can and does relatively easily. However, I expect Craig to do quite well in the Louisa portion, and that will make the race close. The question to me is around third candidate Philip Strother, who’s from Henrico. If Strother does well in his home area, regardless of his poor fundraising, it could give Craig a key opening. I just don’t see it happening, but it would not surprise me if Fowler goes down on Tuesday. Lean Fowler
• HD-65 (Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania): This crucial new district based around Fredericksburg does have a primary. It’s just not a very competitive one. Lee Peters, an area Sheriff, has all the endorsements and money over local grassroots volunteer Michael Kasey. It would be a real stunner to me and to most involved if Kasey was even all that close. Peters should win easily and then heads to what will be a tough general election against former Delegate Josh Cole. Safe Peters
• HD-73 (Chesterfield): This three way primary to replace Roxann Robinson has gotten a bit interesting. This is mainly thanks to Yan Gleyzer giving himself nearly $200,000 to fund his campaign. That’s allowed him to keep up with Mark Earley Jr and Ryan Harter, both of whom have run in parts of this district previously. However, Gleyzer has spent most of that money on consultants and online ads, while Earley has focused more of his spending on radio and mail. Earley also has name recognition from his time as a candidate in the northern part of this district in 2021. Harter himself has name recognition in the Southern part, where he’s represented voters down there on the school board. I still believe Earley Jr is a decent favorite, but I’m not as sure as I was a month ago. There’s a lot of different factors here that will make this an interesting race to watch Tuesday night. Lean Earley
• HD-84 (Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Franklin): This one is an easy one. For all accounts I’ve heard, Rod Thompson is a very nice man. But Mike Dillender is a known entity who’s run in parts of this district previously. Combined with the Governor’s endorsement and a big financial advantage, it’s hard for me to see Dillender losing this. Safe Dillender
• HD-94 (Norfolk): This is a bit of an odd one – a GOP primary in a seat that most people consider a safe seat for Democrats. But a primary is happening here and a winner will be decided Tuesday. I’m going to go with Andrew Pittman as a decent favorite in this one. He seems to be the candidate most interested in running a race. Likely Pittman

Democratic Party Senate Primaries

• SD-04 (Roanoke City, Roanoke, Salem, Montgomery): This three-person primary is really more of a two-person primary. I do not expect DA Pierce to be much of a player Tuesday night. This is a race between two Roanoke City Council-members. Luke Priddy, the Chief of Staff to current area Senator John Edwards, and Trish White-Boyd, who has a lot of connections to the cities African- American base. Really this is a race on who’s base turns out in my opinion. Is it White-Boyd’s base or Priddy’s base? The early vote numbers here are the lowest of all the Democratic Party Senate primaries, and by a wide margin too. That does make me wonder if there are some issues regarding black turnout, and that could hurt White-Boyd in the end. However, I think she’s more popular and well known in the heaviest Democratic bastion, which is Roanoke City. I see White-Boyd as the slight favorite in a race that is teetering on the edge of competitiveness. Lean White-Boyd
• SD-11 (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Nelson, Amherst, Louisa): This is a primary that I think is being made out to be more interesting than it is. As I’ve said beforehand, this is a race that matches the type of primary that sees a lot of action. A longtime old and male elected official is being primaried by a younger, more progressive, woman challenger. That’s what we have here with Creigh Deeds being primaried by Delegate Sally Hudson. Hudson has become notorious for being one of, if not the most progressive member in the House of Delegates. The UVA economics professor has garnered a young base in the area, and she hoped to turn that into a chamber promotion. However, I feel as though that hasn’t really materialized. Hudson has been surprisingly week in fundraising, depending heavily on in-kind contractions. In-kind contributions count towards total raised, but not to a candidate’s cash on hand. This means that Deeds has actually done a significantly better job of raising money than Hudson. Now, it’s certainly not impossible that Hudson wins Tuesday. I have heard rumblings that the campaign has tightened in recent weeks. I have also heard the exact opposite of that. So, I’m going to go a bit ballsy on this prediction and say that Deeds is a pretty significant favorite for Tuesday night. Likely Deeds
• SD-13 (Petersburg, Prince Georges, Dinwiddie, Charles City, Henrico, Surry, Hopewell, Sussex): What hasn’t been said about this primary. You know the drill if you’ve been following along: Joe Morrissey, one of the last remaining pro-life elected Democrats, is facing a heavy challenge from former Delegate Lashrecse Aird. The main issue is of course abortion, with Aird running heavily on protecting the right to get an abortion. But another key issue has popped up and that is Morrissey’s personal actions. His soon-to-be former wife (who he met and had relations with when she was 17) has come out with numerous claims of abuse against Morrissey. I won’t repeat them here, as they’re very disgusting and serious. I will however, link the WaPo article here. The fact is, Morrissey’s time is up in Virginia Democratic Party politics. With the Dobbs ruling putting abortion squarely on the table, his time was running short anyways. All his very awful personal actions just make it all the more likely. I’m hedging from safe since he’s surprised us before, but a Morrissey win here would be his most stunning upset yet. Likely Aird
• SD-14 (Richmond, central Henrico): I don’t really know what to write here. In theory, this could have been a competitive race for new Senator Lamont Bagby. While Bagby ran relatively recently to replace now Congresswoman Jennifer McClellan, that district had significantly more of Henrico than this seat. But, nothing materialized and all Bagby drew was Pastor Katie Gooch. While Bagby’s recent fundraising has not been impressive, neither has Gooch’s. There’s a part of me that wants to hedge here, but I’m not. It’d be a real surprise if Bagby even has a close race Tuesday. Safe Bagby
• SD-18 (Portsmouth and Chesapeake): The battle of the titans. Lionel Spruill vs Louise Lucas. Chesapeake vs Portsmouth. One of the most expensive and most interesting primary races will come to a finish Tuesday. And it’s one that only continues to get interesting. If you are an avid follower of Louise Lucas, you know who she is. The Senate Pro Tempore and loudly anti-Youngkin Senator has been a presence on social media since 2021. Spruill, on the other hand, is a quieter legislator who has argued that he actually gets things done compared to Lucas, who Spruill has attacked for being more focused on herself than legislation. In fundraising, neither has been able to break away from the others. In what may end up being the most expensive primary of the year, each has raised over a half a million dollars. That’s right folks, both of these candidates have raised over half a million dollars for a primary. Both are heavily funded by Dominion Energy and its hard to tell who’s beating who. However, I think in the end this comes down to a geographic game. Spruill has been an institution in Chesapeake City since the 90’s, and while Lucas is as strong of an institution in Portsmouth, there’s more of Chesapeake in this district than there is Portsmouth. I think that is what pulls Spruill over Lucas in the end. I’m calling an upset, folks. Lean Spruill
• SD-21 (Norfolk): This newly drawn seat in Norfolk has brought on two decently known candidates. Delegate Angelia Williams Graves represents much of the southern portion of this district. While Norfolk City Councilwoman and 2021 Lieutenant Governor Andria McClellan represents much of the Northern and Western parts of this district. The fundraising game has been about even, with McClellan just ahead in total, while Graves narrowly outraised her last cycle. McClellan has been heavily backed by Sonjia Smith, while Graves has been backed by Dominion Energy, making this another proxy battle between the two energy donors. However, I think this race will come down to turnout, and in my opinion, McClellan has spent more time on the grassroots than Graves. I think that makes her a slight favorite in the end. It would not at all surprise me if Graves came out on top here. Leans McClellan
• SD-27 (Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania): This is another primary that has brewed some controversy. In a Senate seat that some consider slightly favorable to Republicans, for months it seemed like former Stafford County Democratic Party chair Ben Litchfield would be the Democratic nominee. However, enter businessman Joel Griffin. Griffin, a wealthy businessman and former Marine, jumped in and immediately became a player thanks to his personal wealth. Litchfield struggled, and continues to struggle, with fundraising for this race. Most of his money has come from in-kind donations, not real donations. And since this is a seat on the edge of Democrats focus, it’s not a surprise they recruited the personally wealthy Griffin for this race. However, Griffin came with some controversy. Not only is Litchfield very popular with the grassroots, but Griffin recently donated to Tara Durant. The same Tara Durant who’s currently a GOP delegate and could very well be the GOP candidate for this race. That has drawn questions on if Griffin is even a real Democrat by the grassroots. However, that has not stopped most elected Democrats from backing Griffin. This includes names like Abigail Spanberger, the most recent area politician to endorse Griffin. With all this in mind, it should seem like Griffin is a pretty heavy favorite. But Litchfield has campaigned for longer and has connections with grassroots that Griffin does not have. That keeps Litchfield in the race. However, I don’t think it’s near enough to beat the money Griffin has put in this race. Likely Griffin
• SD-29 (Prince William, Stafford): This is one of the many NOVA challenges to an incumbent Senator. Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, one of the more progressive members of the House, is attempting to primary Jeremy McPike in the redrawn 29th. On the surface this one seems a bit weird. McPike is not considered much of a moderate Senator and to my knowledge hasn’t even run afoul of Democrat grassroots. However, the devil is in the redraw. Much of this territory is new to McPike, with a lot of territory being previously represented by Scott Surrovell. Surrovell has endorsed McPike, and its to be seen if that has an effect. But Guzman represents a lot of that new territory in the House herself, specifically around Dale City. With Guzman also having lots of connections to the decent sized Hispanic population now in this district, it makes for an interesting race. However, like Sally Hudson, Guzman has been outspent and outraised by McPike by a not insignificant total. My question in the end, like it is for me in SD-11, is has McPike been too moderate for enough of the district. My opinion on that is no, which is why I think he wins this. The question will get a real answer though on Tuesday night. Likely McPike
• SD-31 (Loudoun, Fauquier): Finally a simple one. Russet Perry is a clear favorite of both wings of the Democratic Party (for the most part) and has clear advantages over her opponent, Leesburg City Councilman Zach Cummings. Really the damage being done to Perry may be focused on the general. With Cummings forcing Perry to spend, it’s allowed GOP nominee Juan Pablo Segura to build a sizable war chest advantage. If that comes back to bite Democrats in November, time will indeed tell. But for this primary, the answer is clear. Safe Perry
• SD-32 (Loudoun): Oh goody, another simple one. While Suhas Subramanyam has been attacked from his left on environmental and labor issues, they seem to have made little dent. Ibraheem Samirah is making a decent attempt, to be totally fair. But he’s been outspent very heavily by Subramanyam in this race and it’s very hard for me to see him pulling an upset in this race. Safe Subramanyam
• SD-33 (Prince William, Fairfax): The most interesting primary that’s gotten the least coverage. 2021 Democratic Party Lieutenant Governor nominee Hala Ayala and 2021 Governor candidate Jennifer Carroll-Foy are attempting to kickstart their comebacks in this state senate race. Carroll-Foy has so far dominated the fundraising game, heavily outraging Ayala. However, Ayala has represented more of this district in the past, representing a good chunk in her old House seat. So it makes for an interesting question. What do you think matters more in a primary like this. Who’s represented more of the area previously, or who’s spent more money. Carroll-Foy has the advantage in the latter, while Ayala has the advantage in the former. It’s also a question if primary voters will look kindly on Ayala’s LG campaign. Will they remember her from the strong primary night victory? Or will they remember her as part of the ticket that lost? I’d take the latter on that. And that, plus the monetary advantage Carroll-Foy has, makes me see her as the favorite. Lean Carroll-Foy
• SD-35 (Fairfax): The first of three very interesting Democratic Party primaries in Fairfax. Long time Senator Dave Marsden is taking a challenge from campaign finance reform activist Heidi Drauschak. Drauschak has campaigned heavily on a new era in government, focusing on reform of campaign finance and other areas. She has been heavily supported by Clean Virginia, who’s funded a good chunk of her campaign. And Marsden, who’s only represented just over a fourth of this district previously, seemed to be caught sleeping in the fundraising game last quarter. Drauschak has now outraised and outspent Marsden, which is generally a good sign of challenger success. This is a race I still think will be close, as Marsden has represented a good chunk of the power base in Annandale. But, I believe Drauschak pulls off a slight victory in the end here. Lean Drauschak
• SD-36 (Fairfax): The second interesting primary comes with a big issue for the incumbent. George Barker only represented 6% of this seat in his new district. Making things even more problematic, that 6% is mostly based in Clifton. Clifton is the last remaining usually Republican precinct in Fairfax County. Not a place you want to be from in a Democratic primary. Now Barker has actually decently outraged his opponent, Stella Pekarsky. This is mainly because Pekarsky, the Fairfax County School Board member from the Sully district, has actually represented a much larger chunk of this district thank Barker. That means Barker has had to introduce himself to much of the district, thus him spending a considerable amount. This is also another Clean Virginia vs Dominion proxy war. Clean Virginia is unsurprisingly backing Pekarsky, with Dominion backing Barker. However, I actually think in the end, this race will be surprisingly not that close. And I don’t think that will be in favor of Barker. The fact is Barker just has too much of the district to introduce himself too, while Pekarsky has significantly less introduction to do, and much less campaigning. With much of Barker’s incumbent advantage gone, Pekarsky is the type of candidate to do better in a more open primary. Likely Pekarsky
• SD-37 (Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church): The conundrum that is Chap Petersen. Petersen, who fairly or unfairly has been judged as the second most conservative Democrat in the State Senate by multiple activists, faces a challenge from Falls Church based activist Saddam Salim. Now, unlike Drauschak and Pekarsky, Salim has struggled to raise money. This is mostly due to the fact that Clean Virginia has backed Petersen in this race over Salim. That means the groups deep pockets aren’t open to Salim, which has put him way behind in the money game. Petersen also has the most of his old territory compared to Barker and Marsden. It’s not the majority, but it’s the plurality part of his new seat by a good margin. Plus, some of Salim’s arguments feel like they fall flat to me; it seems hard to argue that your opponent is too pro-gun when he has an F rating from the NRA. Salim has also focused on labor issues and Petersen’s stance on COVID restrictions and education, where he was generally outside the general NOVA population on the issue (IMO, Petersen was proven right regarding learning loss and school closures during COVID, but that’s not important to this article here). Salim has certainly gotten the eye of the activists, and I think he’ll do well in the eastern part of this new seat. However, I don’t think he’s done enough to get past Petersen’s incumbency in his old area, and it’s hard for me to see this win happening for Salim. However, Yasmine Taeb nearly pulled it off in 2019 against Dick Saslaw with similarly little funds. I don’t foresee that happening this time, but you never know. Likely Petersen
• SD-40 (Arlington): Ending the Democrats side with an easy one. Barb Favola is not going to lose to James DeVita and it would stun me if DeVita got any more than 20% of the vote. If he even gets above that it would be an upset. Anything plus would mean something went terribly wrong for Favola. Safe Favola

Senate GOP Primaries

• SD-01 (Frederick, Shenandoah, Warren, Winchester, Clarke): How does one attempt to predict an eight candidate primary? I do not know, but I am going to try. Truly there’s three tiers of candidates. The ones who won’t do much, the ones who could surprise, and the favorites. The ones who won’t do much are Brandon Monk and Blaine Dunn, who have raised and spent very little money. In a district as big as this one, being unable to spend will cost you. Of the ones who could surprise, you have Brad Pollack, James Bergida and Lance Allen. Allen may be a bit of a surprise on this list. A 2021 Lieutenant Governor candidate who did slightly better than expected has not drawn much attention in this race, but still has a decent war chest. The same can be said for James Bergida, a Shenandoah University professor, and Brad Pollack a Shenandoah County Supervisor. The real three candidates to pay attention to are Delegate Dave LaRock, Timmy French, a Shenandoah County businessman and John Massoud, the GOP 6th District chair. Unsurprisingly Massoud, who has long roots to the area GOP and name recognition from running the 6th district GOP, has raised the most and has the most endorsements. LaRock is trying to run the most conservative lane, pointing to his record in the House. However, LaRock had to move from Loudoun into Clarke and only represents around 10% of this district in his House seat. French, running on the outsider label, has raised and spent a chunk enough of money that makes him the wildcard, and arguably bumps him over LaRock in my eyes. However, I do believe that Massoud is still the slight favorite. His monetary advantage is decent and the mood is he has a built in advantage as a long time area figure. Lean Massoud
• SD-12 (Chesterfield, Colonial Heights): The race to attempt to get rid of Amanda Chase. It’s a similar story to Marie March. Chase has upset too many people, both activists and establishment, and her personal momentum feels to have died down after coming a far back third in the 2021 Governor convention. The fact is, I’ve heard from enough considerable sources that there’s a certain tiredness among good chunks of area voters about Chase. Some have also began to think that Chase may end up finishing third, with Tina Ramirez eating into her base support. I am in agreement with them and think this race does come down to Ramirez and Glen Sturtevant. Ramirez has seen her momentum grow and has had greater success at fundraising. However, lots of the area establishment has thrown their weight behind Sturtevant, and it’s given him name recognition and boosts among the area. So, this is a hard race to decide. I still see a path for Chase, Ramirez’s path has become more clear, and Sturtevant has been a pseudo favorite since February. This is one where I’m going to go more with my brain than my gut, and I might end up regretting it. Lean Sturtevant
• SD-17 (Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Southampton, Portsmouth, Brunswick, Greensville, Franklin, Dinwiddie, Emporia, Chesapeake): Lots of territory isn’t it? One of the larger land mass districts on the new map, Delegate Emily Brewer has faced a significant challenge from former NASCAR driver Hermie Sadler. Sadler has managed to outraise Brewer, mainly on the back of his own personal wealth. That’s given him a much greater opening than I previously expected when he first announced. However, I think his issue ends up being geographical. Sadler is from Emporia, which is in the much less populous western part of the district. Brewer on the other hand, represents the most populated parts of the district in Suffolk and Isle of Wight. I believe Brewer, with a home court advantage, dominates those areas enough to beat back Sadler’s celebrity and monetary advantage. It’s not a certainty by any means, but I see Brewer as the favorite here. Lean Brewer
• SD-19 (Chesapeake, Virginia Beach): This is a primary that was late in developing because the seat opened up late. Longtime Senator John Cosgrove retired relatively late in the cycle, clearly hoping to hand off the seat to his long time chief of staff and former Chesapeake City School Board member Christie Craig. However, in a surprise move, Craig was challenged by Delegate Tim Anderson, who has moved and carpetbagged down to this seat from his previous home in northern Virginia Beach. Closet salesman Jeff Bruzzesi, with his own personal deep pockets, is also in the race and is a factor. However, most of the Chesapeake has backed Craig, and it makes up the slight majority of the district. Chesapeake generally backs their own, and in the end, I think that will be enough for Craig to beat back the challengers to her right. Lean Craig
• SD-27 (Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania): This is a primary that has gotten attention for all the wrong reasons. Matt Strickland, heavily running to the right of Delegate Tara Durant in this primary, has decided to take his attacks to the Governor. He has called Governor Youngkin, Lieutenant Governor Sears and AG Miyares RINOS, after they failed to stop Strickland’s restaurant, Gormeltz, from losing its liquor license and then being raided after he continued to sell liquor without a license (can’t do that second part even if you think the first part is unfair buddy). The fact is though, the Governor continues to be heavily popular among the base and Stricklands loud and bold attacks against him won’t do Strickland any favors. This is still a GOP primary, so there’s still a chance for Strickland. But I don’t believe it to be that strong in the end. Likely Durant
• SD-29 (Prince William, Stafford): There’s not much to say here. Neither of these candidates have much of a chance against the eventual Democratic nominee in this safe blue seat come November. Nikki Baldwin has significantly more backing than Maria Martin from the area GOP apparatus however, and that should be enough to drive her to a comfortable win. Likely Baldwin
• SD-30 (Prince William, Manassas, Manassas Park): To end this article of articles, is another easy one. Bill Woolf is the heavy favorite over Bob Ruffolo here. The area GOP sees Woolf as a far stronger challenger to take on Delegate Danica Roem in the general. I don’t expect a surprise to happen, as Ruffolo has barely run a campaign or has money. If Ruffolo wins it would actually be one of the bigger surprises of the night. Likely Woolf