The 2022 Arizona Congressional Election: A Review

In the slightly Republican-leaning election of 2022, all 50 states saw redrawn congressional boundaries. In Arizona, which utilizes an independent redistricting commission, the map was redrawn to be slightly more Republican friendly, but still resulted in a highly competitive map. Heading into the 2022 election, Republicans were expecting to make gains around the state, with Democratic Incumbent Tom O’Halleran perhaps the most political endangered incumbent. This article will examine the districts decided by 15% or less.

Arizona 2022 Congressional Election Results

District	Republican	Democratic	Total	Republican%	Democratic%
1	182,336	179,141	361,477	50.44%	49.56%
2	174,169	149,151	323,396	53.86%	46.12%
3	32,475	108,599	141,074	23.02%	76.98%
4	116,521	148,941	265,498	43.89%	56.10%
5	182,464	120,243	321,590	56.74%	37.39%
6	177,201	171,969	349,283	50.73%	49.23%
7	69,444	126,418	195,862	35.46%	64.54%
8	197,555	0	204,713	96.50%	0.00%
9	192,796	4389	197,185	97.77%	2.23%
Total	1,324,961	1,008,851	2,360,078	56.14%	42.75%
Margin	R +316,110			R +13.39%

Arizona Congressional District 1

The 1^st Congressional District is located entirely within Maricopa County, in the northeast quadrant of the county. The district is home to a sizable portion of college-educated voters and the trends in the district have favored Democrats, as in 2020 it was a Biden-won district by a narrow margin. The district does possess a Republican voter registration edge, with voters nonaffiliated with a political party being able to decide the district. In 2022, the Republican voter registration edge in the district was 48,114 voters, or 9.52%.

1^st District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	Other	Total
Maricopa	191,483	37.90%	143,369	28.38%	170,391	505,243
Total	191,483	37.90%	143,369	28.38%	170,391	505,243
Margin	R +48,114	R +9.52%

In the Republican primary for the 1^st district, incumbent Republican representative David Schweikert ran for re-election against two other candidates, Elijah Norton, and Josh Barnett. Schweikert garnered 52,067 votes (43.6%), while the two other candidates received 67,434 votes (56.4%). It should be noted that Schweikert has faced an ethics scandal, so this factor likely contributed to his showing in the primary. In the Democratic primary, Jevin D. Hodge ran against Adam Metzendorf, with Hodge earning 46,144 votes (61.9% of the primary vote) and Metzendorf securing 28,267 (37.9%). A write-in candidate also ran in the Democratic primary, earning 175 votes. In the primaries, Republican candidates combined for 119,501 votes while Democratic candidates combined for 74,586 votes.

1^st District Election Data (In November election)

County	Schweikert	Schweikert %	Hodge	Hodge %	Total
Maricopa	182,336	50.44%	179,141	49.56%	361,477
Total	182,336	50.44%	179,141	49.56%	361,477
Margin	R +3,195	R +0.88%

Several days after election night, as ballots were being counted in Maricopa County, the two candidates exchanged leads. However, when the results were tallied, Schweikert had won re-election in the district by an extremely narrow margin. Schweikert had won by a narrow margin of just 3,195 votes (0.88%). In 2024, this district will likely be considered a top target by the Arizona Democratic Party, and it will be considered a frontline seat by the Arizona Republican party to hold.

Arizona Congressional District 2

The 2^nd Congressional District is the state’s most northeastern based district, comprising many counties. The district includes many mountainous areas and is home to a large Native American population which primarily lives in reservations located in the district. It is made up of parts of Apache, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, and Yavapai counties. The district was made much more Republican leaning with redistricting although it has been represented by Democratic representative Tom O’Halleran for many years. Republicans have a solid partisan registration advantage in the district, with Republicans leading by a margin of 34,380 voters (6.58%).

2^nd District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	Other	Total
Apache	10,666	20.52%	27,625	53.14%	13,690	51,981
Coconino	23,170	25.51%	36,569	40.26%	31,090	90,829
Gila	16,125	47.50%	8,431	24.83%	9,393	33,949
Graham	169	8.24%	1,267	61.80%	614	2,050
Maricopa	79	6.04%	616	47.13%	612	1,307
Mohave	105	14.19%	269	36.35%	366	740
Navajo	25,417	36.81%	24,144	34.97%	19,479	69,040
Pinal	37,035	34.88%	28,834	27.15%	40,322	106,191
Yavapai	81,695	49.20%	32,326	19.47%	52,031	166,052
Total	194,461	37.24%	160,081	30.66%	167,597	522,139
Margin	R +34,380	R +6.58%

Incumbent Democrat Tom O’Halleran ran for re-election, running unopposed in the Democratic primary, while Eli Crane emerged victorious from a seven candidate Republican primary with 38,681 votes (35.8%). The other Republican candidates combined for 69,423 votes (64.2%). Heading into the general election, polling suggested that Crane had a small narrow lead over O’Halleran.

2^nd District Election Data (In November Election)

County	Crane	Crane %	O’Halleran	O’Halleran %	Total
Apache	8,486	32.01%	18,020	67.98%	26,507
Coconino	19,741	36.16%	34,831	63.80%	54,597
Gila	14,569	65.20%	7,774	34.79%	22,346
Graham	51	9.44%	489	90.56%	540
Maricopa	46	12.89%	311	87.11%	357
Mohave	64	32.99%	130	67.01%	194
Navajo	21,667	53.95%	18,480	46.02%	40,160
Pinal	31,136	55.29%	25,173	44.70%	56,318
Yavapai	78,409	64.07%	43,943	35.91%	122,377
Total	174,169	53.86%	149,151	46.12%	323,396
Margin	R +25,018	R +7.74%

In the general election, Crane defeated O’Halleran by a decent margin. Crane was able to accomplish this by winning Yavapai, Pinal, Navajo and Gila counties by 50,411 votes, a wider margin that O’Halleran’s 25,393 vote-lead in Apache, Cocoon, Graham, Maricopa, and Mohave counties.. Overall, Crane won the district by 25,018 votes, returning it to Republican hands for the first time since 2010.

Arizona Congressional District 4

The 4^th Congressional District is based in the southernmost reaches of Maricopa County. The district has been trending Democratic in recent years, but Republicans held a tiny 2,104 voter edge (0.50%) in party registration. However, third-party and nonaffiliated voters make up a larger number of voters than Republicans or Democrats.

4^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Maricopa	135,884	32.05%	133,780	31.55%	154,303	423,967
Total	135,884	32.05%	133,780	31.55%	154,303	423,967
Margin	R +2,104	R +0.50%

In the Democratic primary, incumbent Congressman Greg Stanton ran for re-election unopposed, while Republican Kelly Cooper emerged victorious in the Republican primary with 20,281 votes (28.4%), having run against four other candidates, who received 51,165 votes (71.6%). Most polling done before the election showed Stanton with a solid lead, making him a favorite to win re-election.

4^th District Election Data (In November Election)

County	Cooper	Cooper %	Stanton	Stanton %	3rd	Total
Maricopa	116,521	43.89%	148,941	56.10%	36	265,498
Total	116,521	43.89%	148,941	56.10%	36	265,498
Margin			D +32,420	D +12.21%

In the general election, Stanton won a convincing victory over Cooper. He won the district – which had been considered a potential battleground before the election – by a decisive 32,420 votes, a margin of 12.21%. This win in a Republican national environment suggests that the district is out of reach for Republicans.

Arizona Congressional District 6

Arizona’s 6^th Congressional District is in the southeastern portion of the state and is a Republican leaning, politically competitive district. The district includes portions of Greenlee, Cochise, Pima, Pinal, and Graham counties. The district at the time of the November election had a Republican voter registration advantage of 19,662 voters (3.76%).

6^th District Party Registration Data (as of November election)

County	Republicans	R %	Democrats	D %	3rd Party	Total
Cochise	27,377	45.12%	11,987	19.76%	21,306	60,670
Graham	9,641	55.29%	3,275	18.78%	4,521	17,437
Greenlee	1,728	37.01%	1,452	31.10%	1,489	4,669
Pima	129,360	33.39%	134,751	34.78%	123,319	387,430
Pinal	18,131	34.98%	15,110	29.15%	18,596	51,837
Total	186,237	35.67%	166,575	31.91%	169,231	522,043
Margin	R +19,662	R +3.76%

In the primaries, the district saw an open seat race as incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick did not run for re-election. In the Democratic primary, Kirsten Engel emerged victorious, having earned 54,060 votes (59.1%) against two other candidates, who combined garnered 37,454 voters (40.9%). In the Republican primary, Juan Ciscomani won the Republican nomination, earning 49,559 voters (47.1%) to five other candidates, who received 55,625 voters (52.9%). In the primaries, Republicans earned a combined 105,184 votes, while Democrats achieved 91,514 votes.

 6^th District Election Data (In November Election)

County	Ciscomani	Ciscomani %	Engel	Engel %	3rd	Total
Cochise	26,180	67.80%	12,405	32.12%	31	38,616
Graham	7,938	77.32%	2,329	22.68%	0	10,267
Greenlee	1,540	63.69%	878	36.31%	0	2,418
Pima	124,199	46.43%	143,239	53.54%	79	267,517
Pinal	17,344	56.93%	13,118	43.06%	3	30,465
Total	177,201	50.73%	171,969	49.23%	113	349,283
Margin	R +5,232	R +1.50%

After a few weeks of counting ballots, Republican Ciscomani won a narrow victory over the Democratic candidate Engel. Ciscomani was able to do this by keeping a close race in Pima County (Engel won it by 19,040 votes, a margin of 7.1%), while outpacing her in the rest of the district, which he won by a margin of 24,272 votes. Overall, Ciscomani won by margin of 5,232 votes (1.50%). This result was somewhat surprising; Democrats had seemingly written off the seat as uncompetitive, leaving many to wonder if stronger investment might have allowed Democrats to hold it.