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Between the Lines: House Reapportionment Totals Greatly Surprise

  • Nick Morris

    • The day is finally here. Although Census Day was over a year ago, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown a wrench in the processing of data. Ordinarily the release of apportionment data would have been in December, but due to a variety of reasons, there were delays across the board. And following a Zoom press briefing, the Census Bureau released the data.

    What does “apportionment data” mean exactly? It’s actually very simple. Apportionment data refers the total populations of every state and territory on April 1, 2020. Among other things, these numbers are important for funding, infrastructure and, of course, reapportionment. The Constitution requires states to be allocated seats in the U.S. House of Representatives proportional to their populations, as counted by the census.

    The counts are also key for the Electoral College, where every state has as many electors as seats in Congress (their allocated House seats plus two for Senators). For a detailed list of the number of every state’s numbers of House seats for the following decade, scroll to the bottom of the article.

    Changes in Representation

    The main driving force behind the shifts in population has been continuing state-to-state migration. In general rural areas have hemorrhaged population, and industrial Midwestern areas are the hardest hit. On the other hand, suburban growth around the country is as strong as ever, and has driven the nation’s steady population growth. This growth is strongest in metropolitan areas like Phoenix, Atlanta and Dallas-Fort-Worth.

    As a result of these shifts, there has been a turnover of seven seats in the House. The eliminated seats are concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast, while the new seats are dispersed throughout the nation. Texas gains two seats, and Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon all gain one each. On the losing side, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all lose one seat.

    These numbers are notable in that the apportionment numbers showed very little match to the estimates. Arizona was expected to gain a seat, but is instead staying at nine. Rhode Island was all but guaranteed to drop down to a single seat, and that did not transpire. Overall there was far less turnover of seats than expected.

    Who Benefits From Reapportionment?

    The House: Uncertain, But Probably Democrats

    Following what we’ve seen from trends, voters who migrate between states tend to vote Democratic. We consistently see this in places like Austin, Texas, which swings consistently to the left as it explodes in population. The same is true around Phoenix, Atlanta and countless other metropolitan areas. Thus, in the House, reapportionment has a lot of potential for Democrats. Many districts which Democrats have gained over the last decade fill this criterion, and as a result many are overpopulated. As new districts arise to account for this growth, I would say that Democrats are the most likely winners.

    But that is just based on reapportionment. This is not to be confused with redistricting, where Republicans may use their advantage in state legislatures to draw favorable districts for themselves. But that’s a topic for another time.

    The Electoral College: Republicans, For Now

    Despite the shifts, the reapportioned counts seem to give Republicans a slightly improved Electoral College advantage. If the 2020 election were held under the new Electoral College counts, Joe Biden would have won 303 votes, three fewer than his real total, and Donald Trump would have won three more. This advantage may not be permanent, however. Take Texas for example. Texas remains a red state, but the same population growth that caused it to gain three votes also caused Democrats to surge there. This has already Arizona and Georgia to flip, and the same may happen in states like Florida and North Carolina.

    These states are changing rapidly, and if Democrats are lucky enough to sweep them, the extra Electoral Votes would help. But for now, Democrats will have to work a bit harder to overcome Republicans’ built-in advantage in the Electoral College.

    What’s Next?

    Congressional redistricting is in the pipeline in the vast majority of states, and the release of this data is a major step in the process. Now that states know for sure how many seats they will have, planning becomes a lot easier. But it’s not over yet, and we’re still months away from getting block-level redistricting data. The Census Bureau have set a provisional deadline of Aug. 16 for the release of this data.

    Until then, legislatures and commissions would be smart to ramp up public hearings and debates. Many states have been doing this, and others have plans to do so in the near future. While they do that, the coverage continues here at Elections Daily, where I’ll be doing my best to keep the public up to date.

    Official Number of House Seats, by State

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