The 2010 elections were a bloodbath for House Democrats. It looked to some like the end of the Blue Dog Coalition. Before that point, the Coalition had hit a peak in membership at 54 members. These Representatives largely hailed from southern and rural districts. They made up the bulk of “red district” Democrats, and were able to hold their seats through moderation. As Barack Obama took office, however, the red wave came, and the partisanship in these districts was too strong for them to overcome. As a result, many of them lost their seats. By 2011, the Coalition was halved to only 26 members.
Rebuilding
2012 and 2014 weren’t much better for the Blue Dog Coalition, either. Redistricting allowed states to draw several members out of their districts, and the few members who retained their seats through these two election cycles failed to make it past a third. When a second red wave came in 2014, these members were picked off. Only Collin Peterson of rural Minnesota managed to survive all three cycles as an ‘old guard’ Blue Dog in a red district. He continues to represent Minnesota’s 7th district today.
In 2016, the tables turned. What was once the coalition of Chris John and Jim Matheson became the coalition of Stephanie Murphy and Josh Gottheimer. While the principle philosophies of economic liberalism and fiscal responsibility that the Coalition has been defined by since it’s creation in 1995, remained largely unchanged, new members typically held more socially liberal positions, which allowed them to expand their appeal.
A Strong 2018
2018 was the best year for the Blue Dogs in decades. Of the 42 seats that flipped from red to blue, 9 were Blue Dogs. Additionally Jared Golden of Maine joined the Blue Dog Coalition earlier this year. These “Blue Pups” (the traditional nickname for freshman Blue Dogs), such as Anthony Brindisi of New York, Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, and Joe Cunningham of South Carolina, represent some of the reddest districts currently held by Democrats. They are also some of the youngest members of Congress. In fact, every single one of these members is in their 30s or 40s.
With these two successful election cycles behind them, the Coalition is hoping for a third. The Blue Dog PAC, the campaign arm of the Coalition, has been endorsing and donating to candidates and potential members across the country for decades. This year has been no different. As of writing this, the PAC has endorsed nine candidates, all of which are in light red seats.
Here’s a rundown of all nine, in descending order of how likely the districts are to flip.
TX-22: Sri Preston Kulkarni
Elections Daily rating: Tossup
Based in Fort Bend County and containing parts of Brazoria County, this district was drawn as a Republican stronghold. However, with extremely rapid population growth and diversification in the district, along with the 2018 race being surprisingly close and incumbent Pete Olson announcing his retirement, this district quickly became one of the top pickup opportunities in the country for Democrats. Kulkarni, a national security officer, will face Fort Bend County sheriff Troy Nehls.
It’s worth noting that the Blue Dog PAC didn’t endorse Kulkarni when he was the Democratic nominee for the district in 2018. However, they decided to endorse him this year. His campaign has a focus on jobs and healthcare, and he has built a reputation for uniting progressives and moderates. Going into the general, Kulkarni has a massive 40:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Nehls. This is mostly the result of a contentious primary on the Republican side. We feel pretty good about Kulkarni’s chances, which is why he’s at the top of the list.
PA-10: Eugene DePasquale
Elections Daily rating: Tossup
This district was drawn by the courts in 2018 after the previous map was struck down as a partisan gerrymander. While the new map isn’t a gerrymander, some districts were drawn to balance out the Republican geographic advantage in the state. This included drawing a light-red central Pennsylvania district which joined together Harrisburg, Carlisle and York.
Scott Perry, incumbent of the district and member of the Freedom Caucus, found himself facing a close race in 2018 against challenger George Scott, who was also a Blue Dog endorsee. In 2020, Democrats believe they have found a perfect recruit in DePasquale, the state’s Auditor General. He is not only is a statewide elected official, but he won the district in his 2016 run for Auditor General while both Hillary Clinton and Katie McGinty lost it.
IN-05: Christina Hale
Elections Daily rating: Tossup
Originally considered a safe district for Republicans, the retirement of incumbent Susan Brooks led many prognosticators to move the race to Leans Republican. Many have even moved it to a Tossup, as Elections Daily now rates it. Hale is a former State Representative and the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2016.
Many viewed Hale as an excellent recruit for Democrats, and have high hopes for her chances. The Republican nominee, State Senator Victoria Spartz, has been campaigning as a rock-ribbed conservative. Hale has been outraising Spartz and holds a 4:1 cash-on-hand advantage as of the end of June. Additionally, Hale released an internal poll showing her ahead of Spartz by 6 points. As of now, it seems that everything is going Hale’s way, and she should be cautiously optimistic about her chances in this Trump+12 district.
NY-02: Jackie Gordon
Elections Daily rating: Leans Republican
After 28 years of serving Long Island in Congress, Representative Pete King decided to retire this year, leaving a vacancy in this Obama-Trump district based in the South Shore of Long Island. Democrats quickly united behind Jackie Gordon, a Jamaican immigrant, combat veteran and councilwoman from Babylon. On the Republican side, Andrew Garbarino won a contentious primary.
Although Republicans still appear to have the edge in this race, Gordon has several advantages. As well as having consolidated support within the party, she also holds a staggering 11:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Garbarino. These advantages, as well as several other factors, may potentially cause prognosticators to move the race to a tossup.
FL-15: Adam Hattersley
Elections Daily rating: Leans Republican
Based in Lake, Polk, and Hillsborough counties, this central Florida district was considered to be a potential sleeper race for Democrats in 2018. However, Ross Spano won this open seat by mid-single digits. This year Spano is running for re-election, and this time with potential campaign finance violations hanging over his head. Hattersley, a first-term State Representative who won Spano’s seat after he left the State House to run for the US House, is now seeking the Democratic nomination.
Unlike every other candidate on this list, Hattersley still has a contested primary ahead of him. Investigative journalist Alan Cohn, who ran in 2014, is also running, and has similar fundraising numbers to Hattersley. While Hattersley is still the apparent frontrunner, the primary is worth keeping an eye on. Hattersley is running on issues such as healthcare and veterans’ education.
KY-06: Josh Hicks
Elections Daily rating: Likely Republican
Centered around Lexington and containing small cities such as Frankfort and Richmond, as well as rural areas in Eastern Kentucky, this district was one of the most closely-watched and hotly contested races in 2018. Combat veteran Amy McGrath garnered a national profile during her run and raked in millions of dollars in an attempt to win the seat. However, she fell a few points short of defeating incumbent Andy Barr. This year, McGrath is running a long-shot bid to defeat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, this time with tens of millions of dollars in her pocket. For the House race, Democrats have nominated Josh Hicks, a rural Democrat who is more low-key than McGrath. However, he is still energetic, and is running on a local message.
Despite not gaining the media attention that McGrath did and not raising as much money, Hicks’s focus might be just what Democrats need to flip this seat. While a national celebrity may spark the image of a Washington liberal, a moderate Marine veteran who grew up poor in rural Kentucky may attract some ancestral Democrats who still live in the district. A recent poll from Bluegrass Data Analytics showed Hicks up 2 points over Barr. While we still have the race as Likely R, this could be a potential sleeper race.
FL-16: Margaret Good
Elections Daily rating: Likely Republican
Along with Adam Hattersley, Good is one of two central Florida Democratic challengers who were among the Blue Dog PAC’s first endorsements. Like Hattersley, she won an open seat for a light red district in the Florida House of Representatives. She’s taking on an incumbent in a district Trump won by about 10 points. She won a special election to the 72nd House district by 5 points against James Buchanan. Now she’s aiming to unseat another member of the same family: James’s father Vern Buchanan.
While Florida’s primary is still yet to be held, Good is running uncontested, so her only remaining hurdle is the general election. Good is very much a long-shot candidate. Unlike Ross Spano, Vern Buchanan is relatively free of scandals, and we still consider him to be a strong candidate. However, Democrats got as good of a candidate as they can get in this district, and with polls showing a positive environment for Democrats, anything could happen.
CA-04: Brynne Kennedy
Elections Daily rating: Safe Republican
While California is a deep blue state overall, there are a few regions of the state which are out of reach for Democrats. Many consider the 4th district to be one of them. While the district is expansive geographically, most of the population is in the northern and eastern Sacramento suburbs. These areas typically lean Republican by low single-digits. The incumbent is Tom McClintock, a member of the Freedom Caucus and probably the most conservative member of the California congressional delegation. Kennedy is a businesswoman with a focus on rural issues and ending gridlock in Washington.
Democrats shouldn’t keep their hopes up too high in this district. Partisan lean, historical results, and primary results have led Elections Daily and many other prognosticators to conclude that the district is Safe Republican. However it’s unwise to leave any district potentially within reach without any serious challenge, and Democrats seem to have found a strong challenger in Kennedy. She has produced impressive fundraising numbers and her positions on the issues fit well with the district. If I were to choose any Safe R House race with upset potential, this would be it.
MI-07: Gretchen Driskell
Elections Daily rating: Safe Republican
Based in Southeast Michigan, this district contains patches of blue in Washentaw and Eaton Counties. However, it’s still red due to Republican gerrymandering at the beginning of the decade, with Donald Trump winning by 17 points. Driskell, a former State Representative, challenged incumbent Tim Walberg in both 2016 and 2018. She’s going for round three this time, and has maintained the Blue Dog PAC endorsement.
While Driskell does seem to be ambitious and determined, the district’s partisan lean is simply too steep. For her to win, something would have to have significantly changed from her last two runs. As of writing this, it doesn’t seem like this will be the case.
Conclusion
Each of these endorsements comes with a donation to the respective campaign from the PAC, which most of the above candidates seem to have received.
Notably absent from the PAC’s list of endorsements is Kathy Manning. The PAC endorsed her in 2018 when she was running in the light red NC-13, but now she’s running for the newly redrawn NC-06, which is rated as Safe Democratic by Elections Daily, meaning she’s all but guaranteed to win the seat in November. We expect that the PAC will make several endorsements before November, and Manning may be included among them.
The Blue Dog Coalition and its endorsees played a large role in flipping the House to Democrats in 2018. This year, it seems they are hoping to use their influence to expand the Democratic majority this year by getting behind the candidates that they perceive as strong and electable. If all goes to plan for them, we may see the Blue Dog Coalition continue to rise as it continues its expansion and generational change.